2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?

Same reason you'd make any bet. Because you think you have an edge. If missing twice means no edge, I'd be in big trouble.


--Dunbar

[johnny pinwheel]

these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

[knickslions2]

After todays Risen Star some of these will really change. This kind of bet is a true gamble. Payoffs can be good. No way I would ever bet anyone under 10-1. To Honor and Serve has some appeal to me at 17-1. This may even creep up more after the Risen Star today. I usually just bet $20-25 on these type of wagers.

[Scav]

I just played some exactas

Exacta box - Santiva with Uncle Mo / Field

Exacta Box - Santiva with Brethen/Dialed In/Jaycito/Mucho/Rogue/Soldat/Stay Thirsty/To Honor and Serve

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Why do you like Santiva?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

[Scav]

I just thought of something and I wish I would have tried this, could you have boxed 'All Others / All others' in the exacta?

If you can't, what happens to the exacta future wager if it comes up All Others / All Others?

[dylbert]

I saw Santiva live Saturday and was swayed enough to place $2 future wager. My over-the-top play is Santiva over Sweet Ducky exacta!

If both should occur, this post will get a much deserved "bump" on May 7!

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

You can put it right next to your eggs...kill many birds with one fat dupa.

[HaloWishingwell]

I like to look for prices. Too many things can go wrong either on the track or health wise this early to take short prices. Second I like to look for a horse who will not run this week. They tend to float up in price or hold steady while those who impress on the track during the pool get overbet. Thirdly I will only bet a horse who ran during the pool if they didnt perform up to par and the price goes up high enough to bet them. I used all three last year on Super Saver on two of the pools including the last pool when his second to Line Of David was frowned upon. So far this week I'm looking at Soldat and Stay Thirsty. I have others in mind but since they are racing this week, judgement on them is on hold.

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

That's high grade fast food in some parts. And lets face it these horses ain't eatin' good. All it takes is the right chemist, trainer change, jockey switch. It's not like he got destroyed and they're all in love with the winner.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Fly Delta!

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

Live on that stuff.