2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[HaloWishingwell]

http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby...reBetPool1.pdf

[jwkniska]

thanks!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Of the 23....only 10 look like they have a prayer.

Strong Contender:

Uncle Mo

Somewhat of a contender:

To Honor And Serve
Silver Medallion
Dialed In

Marginal chance:

Clubhouse Ride
Mucho Macho Man (juice trainer would help)

X Factor:

Jaycito
The Factor
Machen
Soldat

[RockHardTen1985]

I dont think your marginal chance horses have a prayer. I dont get Silver Medallion at all. Your other 7 are all strong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Look at who trains Silver Meds. 99.8% of his horses are much, much better on dirt than turf or synthetic.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Look at who trains Silver Meds. 99.8% of his horses are much, much better on dirt than turf or synthetic.

I know this. I was recently reading your old posts about Rachel and how she had no chance in the Classic because of his stats on synthetic surfaces. I get all that. I just dont think the horse is much horse. He was not on my radar before and winning that race against that competition does not change my mind.

[randallscott35]

15-1 on Brethen....OMG

[RockHardTen1985]

I think the only possible value on this list could be Jaycito.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of the 23....only 10 look like they have a prayer.

Strong Contender:

Uncle Mo

Somewhat of a contender:

To Honor And Serve
Silver Medallion
Dialed In

Marginal chance:

Clubhouse Ride
Mucho Macho Man (juice trainer would help)

X Factor:

Jaycito
The Factor
Machen
Soldat

I'm curious as to why you think THAS is only somewhat of a contender that you lumped in with basically a grass horse?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's #2 because he's not as good as Uncle Mo - and he has a very similar style of running.

The horses who thrive in the Kentucky Derby fall into two profiles:

1.) They simply prove themselves a better route horses than anyone else in the field

2.) They are horses with deep closing running styles who pick up the pieces while superior horses to them are pushing the reset button at the 5/16ths pole. (Ice Box, Pioneer of the Nile, Denis of Cork, Giacomo, and Steppenwolfer have all been in the trifecta since 2005)


Steve Asmussen would be lucky if he could have got Rachel Alexandra to win an alw race on a synthetic track when she was 3.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's #2 because he's not as good as Uncle Mo - and he has a very similar style of running.

The horses who thrive in the Kentucky Derby fall into two profiles:

1.) They simply prove themselves a better route horses than anyone else in the field

2.) They are horses with deep closing running styles who pick up the pieces while superior horses to them are pushing the reset button at the 5/16ths pole. (Ice Box, Pioneer of the Nile, Denis of Cork, Giacomo, and Steppenwolfer have all been in the trifecta since 2005)


Steve Asmussen would be lucky if he could have got Rachel Alexandra to win an alw race on a synthetic track when she was 3.

Oh, I understand why he's #2 - although I'm not conceding anything to Uncle Mo, esp. since neither horse has run at 3. I'm expecting Mo to be very good, but I also have enormous confidence in THAS. Misplaced? Who knows, lol - I've been wrong before.

I've seen some polls with Dialed In on top; I love Mineshaft and I like the horse a lot, but he's always going to be at the mercy of the pace.