Spectacular Bid VS Seattle Slew

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Alydar was born in Seattle Slew's crop - Seattle Slew wouldn't have won a single race in the triple crown series.

I assume Sir Barton is better than Kelso and Dr. Fager.

Yeah, but, Slew beat Affirmed and Affirmed beat the Bid, so Slew must be better than the Bid!

[Indian Charlie]

Hey Sal, I know you think Bernardini was better than AP Indy, but was AP Indy better than Slew?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hey Sal, I know you think Bernardini was better than AP Indy, but was AP Indy better than Slew?

Seattle Slew at age 4 - would have killed A. P. Indy at age 3.

In terms of who the better 3yo was - it's a tough call but probably A. P. Indy

Slew wasn't running good numbers - was facing miserable competition - and he was pretty one dimensional.

Here is Slew's attempt in California at age 3 when they tried to rate him back and got him boxed in ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFmKe4t-V8s

[Danzig]

i'm a huge seattle slew fan, have a print of him at three chimneys...but no way i'd rank him ahead of the bid.

[justindew]

Is Andy asleep?

[dalakhani]

I think there is little debate that Spectacular Bid was a faster horse. The thing is, Slew had this whole mystique thing going for him in droves. He was a cool horse with a cool name and the pretty horsey people love slew and thats why he gets rated higher in these polls.

Did anybody ever read the book "stud"? I loved the way Slew was described in there. The author said he had a "miles davis kind of cool". I know that you are talking strictly about speed and racehorse ability but that aura thing is why people tend to overrate the brilliance that he showed on the track.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think there is little debate that Spectacular Bid was a faster horse. The thing is, Slew had this whole mystique thing going for him in droves. He was a cool horse with a cool name and the pretty horsey people love slew and thats why he gets rated higher in these polls.

Did anybody ever read the book "stud"? I loved the way Slew was described in there. The author said he had a "miles davis kind of cool". I know that you are talking strictly about speed and racehorse ability but that aura thing is why people tend to overrate the brilliance that he showed on the track.

It is a shame Zenyatta and Seattle Slew never had the chance to hook up. The resulting foal might have been the next Michael Jackson.

[classhandicapper]

I just found this thread while searching for some other information and I feel compelled to defend Slew as a 3YO. I was a serious fan and handicapper at the time. I saw Slew, Bid, Affirmed etc... and am familiar with many of the details of their campaigns.

1. As others have said, IMO, it's a mistake to look a Slew's race in CA as an indication of either his ability at 3 or his flaws as a race horse.

It's not unusual for top horses to throw in a clinker at the end of a series of tough races, off a ship to the west coast, or especially during/after something as demanding as the Triple Crown. Slew was doing all 3. Even in those days, horses were routinely freshened after the Triple Crown. In addition, Turner has repeatedly stated he was dead set against the trip and had issues and problems with the horse leading up to the race. It's just "fishing to make a case against Slew" to use that race. It flies in the face of his entire record and everything known about the conditions leading up to it. He got outrun and beat because he was a tired horse and way less than 100% at the time. It wasn't because he was rated or one dimensional. Granted, the winner was very good that day, but that was not Slew.

2. While Slew's speed figures at 3 were not particularly fast, early in the year he wasn't winning ridden out or in hand. He was winning eased up because he was so dominant and they were trying to save some horse for the Triple Crown. He was also probably not 100% cranked yet because Turner has said the objective was to get to the Belmont with a fresh horse. But in any case, had he been asked down in Florida, his figures would have been much faster. That's undeniable.

3. In his Derby and Preakness (especially the Derby), he had very tough trips. I'd be hard pressed to think of many 3yos I have ever seen that could be left at the start, bull their way through a huge field, rush up sharply, set a very fast pace under pressure, and continue running at 10F. So whatever figure he earned there, the performance itself was monstrously better. It could even be argued he had something left in reserve at the finish even though he was slowing down. The Preakness trip was not as tough, but he again dueled in fast fractions. So whatever speed figure he earned, the performance was much better. The Belmont was basically a jog in the park.

4. Very few of his critics at 3 thought he was a mediocre 2YO or that his Champagne wasn't any good. In fact, if you look at Slew's trip in each of his first 2 starts at 2, you'll see had he trouble at the start, rushed up (once against a totally dead rail) and won extremely impressively. That's why he was the favorite in the Champagne. People knew he had run against the track, with bad starts, and was still winning for fun in good time.

5. In his loss to Patches, Slew was probably still a short horse. Those were the days horses were still often raced into peak condition after 2-3 starts. Also, Patches was an underrated horse. He was quite good during that period and was getting 14 pounds from Slew. Patches once ran Forego to a neck at even weights in a prep race for Forego. But the main point to take from that race is that Cruguet was fired after the race for comments he made about Slew's training. He criticized Doug Peterson and said the horse was not trained properly and was still short. Slew's subsequent much faster and better performances suggest he was right, if not politically very smart for saying so publicly.

To think he was mediocre at 3 because of his slow figures, you would have to think he was a great 2yo, mediocre 3yo, but great again as a 4yo and also ignore all his trips and relatively short campaign that year. That's not the way horses develop and not representative of what actually happened. Andy Beyer was criticized by many other knowledgeable handicappers at the time for his view which was based almost entirely on Slew's figures. (that was the pre trip handicapper Beyer that evolved later)

All that said, whether he was better than Bid or whether his crop was weak are entirely different questions.

His crop was on the weak side and IMHO Bid was the better horse.

Bid was almost unquestionably the best horse I have ever seen live (though vulnerable to horses with more speed and similar ability and perhaps not quite as formidable at 12F).

I think had Bid and Slew met up at their peaks, Slew would have gotten the best of him on some occasions just like he did with Affirmed (who WAS coming off a monster race and was still 100%). Slew had more speed than both of them. When asked why he allowed Slew to get away from him the first time they met, Steve Cauthen stated "I did not". He said (paraphrase) "Every time I asked Affirmed, he picked it up, but that other horse still had an even better gear".

Slew was a different version of Fager. Maybe he wasn't quite as fast, but he had more stamina than Fager. Both were all time greats. They could both probably outrun just about any other great horse I've seen, but they'd also always be vulnerable to a duel or rabbit if there was another great horse behind them.

[Alabama Stakes]

The Bid was a stone cold runner, the likes of which we have not seen since. Seattle Slew was good, but certainly no Spectacular Bid. Ran fast everytime everywhere and looked awesome doing it. Head high power in the rear legs that shot him out of the turn. It would be cool to see some home movies of that grey.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Seattle Slew at age 4 - would have killed A. P. Indy at age 3.

In terms of who the better 3yo was - it's a tough call but probably A. P. Indy

Slew wasn't running good numbers - was facing miserable competition - and he was pretty one dimensional.

Here is Slew's attempt in California at age 3 when they tried to rate him back and got him boxed in ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFmKe4t-V8s

I like how you continue to use Seattle Slew's Swaps effort as a true measure of his ability. The horse was shipping across country to run in a race only 3 weeks after completing the Triple Crown. Against his trainer's wishes.

The horse that beat Seattle Slew...J.O. Tobin. You realize he ran in the Preakness, right? Also, never mind that Seattle Slew didn't run for 10 months following the loss. Clearly he came out of the race in good shape.

You must really have downgraded Quality Road after the BC Classic.

Instead of focusing on the Swaps as your answer to everyone challenging your assessment of Slew, why don't you comment on the head-to-head between Seattle Slew and Affirmed (who toyed with Spectacular Bid), rightly brought up (even if IC was kidding) after you suggested Alydar would have beaten him in all 3 Classics?

You've already back pedaled a bit by stratifying the horse into "the 3yo Seattle Slew" and "the 4yo Seattle Slew".

[Linny]

I think that Bid was better, but I give Slew his due for bullying through in the Derby and (more so) for his losing effort in the Gold Cup the next season. THAT was an amazing performance.

Bid, up to 10f was the fastest thing I ever saw. He was vulnerable beyond 10f though Franklin (IMO) cost him the Belmont. Losing to a TC winner at 12f is no disgrace.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I like how you continue to use Seattle Slew's Swaps effort as a true measure of his ability. The horse was shipping across country to run in a race only 3 weeks after completing the Triple Crown. Against his trainer's wishes.

The horse that beat Seattle Slew...J.O. Tobin. You realize he ran in the Preakness, right? Also, never mind that Seattle Slew didn't run for 10 months following the loss. Clearly he came out of the race in good shape.

You must really have downgraded Quality Road after the BC Classic.

Seattle's Slew's Swaps proved nothing other than that he was a one-dimensional speed horse and he didn't fire when he was boxed in. It was a non-effort followed by a layoff. I agree.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Instead of focusing on the Swaps as your answer to everyone challenging your assessment of Slew, why don't you comment on the head-to-head between Seattle Slew and Affirmed (who toyed with Spectacular Bid), rightly brought up (even if IC was kidding) after you suggested Alydar would have beaten him in all 3 Classics?

Affirmed ran a career top Beyer of 128 (on Beyer's old scale) when he beat Bid in a match-up of 4yo VS 3yo. Affirmed got to jog through pokey fractions on an uncontested lead and barely held. No horse in history is going to beat Affirmed on a loose lead through 25 flat fractions. Spectacular Bid made it very close at a distance that wasn't his best.

When Seattle Slew (as a 4yo) beat Affirmed (as a 3yo) - Affirmed appeared to be tailing off from a very tough 3yo campaign. In Affirmed's two subsquent starts - he was 3rd in the Malibu stakes at 1/5 odds and 2nd in the San Fernando at 1/2 odds.

How do you think Spectacular Bid (at age 4) would have faired against Seattle Slew (at age 3) - I know you aren't a numbers guy but virtually every single race Bid ran at age 4 was about double digit lengths faster than every single race Slew ran at age 3.

[smartbid09]

Everybody says that Affirmed was tailing after a hard campaign but Seattle Slew was coming back after battling colitis x. I think they were both exhausted no?

Not to sound hostile.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

Everybody says that Affirmed was tailing after a hard campaign but Seattle Slew was coming back after battling colitis x. I think they were both exhausted no?

I believe the battling colitis X wasn't until the winter late in his 3yo season or early in his 4yo season. Long after his freshening started.

Slew had a couple nice ALW wins to start his 4yo season - was defeated as a 1/9 favorite by Dr. Patches in his stakes debut as an older horse in the Grade 3 Patterson Handicap at the Meadowlands. After that he ran four great races - winning the Malboro, Woodward, and Grade 3 Stuyvesant at AQU under 134lbs - his only defeat a great 2nd place finish in the JCGC.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The horse that beat Seattle Slew...J.O. Tobin. You realize he ran in the Preakness, right?

J. O. Tobin broke in the air at the start and was 8th by 12 lengths after a half mile ... to that point - he had never raced further than 6fs on dirt.

Considering J O Tobin was effective as a speed sprinter - being 8th by 12 after a half mile and having to close serious ground in only his second lifetime dirt race - and first beyond 6fs probably wasn't ideal.

Here is the 2nd place finisher in that Preakness.