Gotta love Watchmaker....

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, the BC jinx is silliness, I agree with you on that and it isn't even worth discussing.

However, on your other example....yer kidding...right? Considering the BC Juvenile in THE race for 2YOs while the Remsen is one of a few late season 2YO races, and not exactly one that horses point to en masse like the BC Juvenile, I would say the numbers you pointed out show, if anything, the Remsen to be a staggeringly solid race as far as pointing out TC contendors.

Now, I don't believe in any of this, as theoretically all three of the major racetrack late season preps, the KY Jockey Club, the Hollywood Futurity and the Remsen should always be reasonable indicators of the next years TC races, but the comparison you chose does not support your point...if there really could even be a realistic one.

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My point wasn't to compare the two races. I would agree with u that the Hollywood Futurity or the KY race are better comparisons. If u have a horse that's started late and is not ready for the BC, then ok, skip the race. But if u have a horse that's ready to run but instead, u are skipping the race and running in another one, because of some silly jinx or because u think that later race will better prepare u for the classics the next year, I think that's a bad move. I think people focus too much on the fact that no BC winner has won the Derby and don't pay attention to how much TC success horses from the BC have actually had. I was responding to the poster that said that skipping the Juvenile is Tagg's way of saying that he believes this is a Derby horse and that he's saving him for next year.

This I completely agree with. That poster also seemed to be indicating that Tagg skipped the BC with Funny Cide as well when that was really just a matter of timing and experience more than anything else.

Skipping the Juvenile because of the jinx is nonsensical.