Girolamo

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Girolamo's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races ... and he's the only A. P. Indy to ever win a Grade 1 stakes race at 6fs or less.

In terms of ability - I'm not sure there's another older male left in the country who I believe is much better than him.

I don't buy it. And not necessarily because I don't think he had the potential or the stamina to be a top middle distance horse, but simply because his time is over with.

Here's a horse, going on 5, that's made all of 11 starts, despite racing at 2, 3, and 4. Physical issues are probably a very real limiting factor here. Furthermore, whether you want to call it mismanagement or not, he's been kept for the most part around one-turn during his career and it would be quite a feat for the connections (who everyone agrees are inept) to re-develop this horse into a two-turn runner.

The progeny stats for AP Indy are a huge selling point, but looking at Girolamo closely, how many other AP Indy runners have his kind of natural speed (I don't agree with your "rushed along" comment)? He's constantly in the thick of it early at shorter distances, often under strong restraint from his jockey. He's been up close in nothing but fast-paced races with fractions of :45-:46+ and 1:09+. He almost certainly would be on the lead in races of 9f-10f. He appears to have little acceleration (Jersey Town left him for dead on the turn the other day) and no real "move". He's not a typical AP Indy plodder.

Visually, he's never really finished up particularly well. He was under a heavy drive just to make up a couple of lengths on two sons of sprint sire Speightstown this past weekend. He looked good in an allowance last year, but that just brings up another question mark...his class.

He's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races. Looked at the other way, he's lost the Cigar Mile, BC Sprint, and Forego...all open races He's won a couple of conditioned allowances, a 5-horse age restricted Grade 1, and held safe one of Oaklawn's finest in Riley Tucker.

I would point to that great barometer of future success, the now defunct Futurity Stakes, as further evidence of his "cut below" status. He was outrun by Charitable Man, Flying Pegasus, and Kensei that day, and faltered alongside the decidely non-Grade 1 colt Freisan Fire in what turned out to be a preview of failure for the following 2 racing seasons.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I don't buy it. And not necessarily because I don't think he had the potential or the stamina to be a top middle distance horse, but simply because his time is over with.

Here's a horse, going on 5, that's made all of 11 starts, despite racing at 2, 3, and 4. Physical issues are probably a very real limiting factor here. Furthermore, whether you want to call it mismanagement or not, he's been kept for the most part around one-turn during his career and it would be quite a feat for the connections (who everyone agrees are inept) to re-develop this horse into a two-turn runner.

The progeny stats for AP Indy are a huge selling point, but looking at Girolamo closely, how many other AP Indy runners have his kind of natural speed (I don't agree with your "rushed along" comment)? He's constantly in the thick of it early at shorter distances, often under strong restraint from his jockey. He's been up close in nothing but fast-paced races with fractions of :45-:46+ and 1:09+. He almost certainly would be on the lead in races of 9f-10f. He appears to have little acceleration (Jersey Town left him for dead on the turn the other day) and no real "move". He's not a typical AP Indy plodder.

Visually, he's never really finished up particularly well. He was under a heavy drive just to make up a couple of lengths on two sons of sprint sire Speightstown this past weekend. He looked good in an allowance last year, but that just brings up another question mark...his class.

He's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races. Looked at the other way, he's lost the Cigar Mile, BC Sprint, and Forego...all open races He's won a couple of conditioned allowances, a 5-horse age restricted Grade 1, and held safe one of Oaklawn's finest in Riley Tucker.

I would point to that great barometer of future success, the now defunct Futurity Stakes, as further evidence of his "cut below" status. He was outrun by Charitable Man, Flying Pegasus, and Kensei that day, and faltered alongside the decidely non-Grade 1 colt Freisan Fire in what turned out to be a preview of failure for the following 2 racing seasons.

As to Girolamao, I disagree completely that he doesn't have acceleration. I've seen it in many of his races - maybe not this year, but it's been there. He's run several big races and he's usually finished up quite well, but this year they screwed up with him. He ran well in the Forego for a horse who'd not run in 10 months. He ran well in the Vosburgh. I think he's obviously off-form at this point, but he's still very talented.

He was 2 years old when he ran in the Futurity and he didn't run badly. Most Indy's improve with age, so they gave him time off and he came back brilliantly as a 3 year old. I don't see how his 2 year old races are an indication that he lacks sufficient class........

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

AP Indy sires mostly plodders? Well, I won't get into that.

I was describing the typical running style of his progeny.

As to Girolamao, I disagree completely that he doesn't have acceleration. I've seen it in many of his races - maybe not this year, but it's been there. He's run several big races and he's usually finished up quite well, but this year they screwed up with him. He ran well in the Forego for a horse who'd not run in 10 months. He ran well in the Vosburgh. I think he's obviously off-form at this point, but he's still very talented.

He's run several big races? He's 2 for 7 in stakes company with 4 unplaced efforts.

I don't see how his 2 year old races are an indication that he lacks sufficient class........

He was buried in the Futurity amid a field of future one-hit Grade 2 runners.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He's not a typical AP Indy plodder.

Visually, he's never really finished up particularly well.

Most A. P. Indy routers aren't plodders. A lot of them have very good natural speed.

In sprint races - they break well - and start struggling to maintain position after a few furlongs.

After watching the Cigar Mile again - you're right - he wasn't rushed along like in the other sprints .. but he still was in a spot he wouldn't be in going long. He wouldn't have to worry about being 5th or so, in a pack of 3, and getting dirt kicked back in his face.

I think he'd get a ton of perfect trips at 9fs or 10fs - the way a Quality Road or Left Bank always would. I have no doubts about his ability to stay a distance against chumppy top competition in these rich 6 horse field stakes to come.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In sprint races - they break well - and start struggling to maintain position after a few furlongs.

This was certainly true of A.P. Indy himself as a racehorse. In nearly all his starts, he broke on top and led for the first hundred yards or so before settling into a mid-pack spot. Though I wouldn't say he was "struggling" to maintain position.

I think he'd get a ton of perfect trips at 9fs or 10fs - the way a Quality Road or Left Bank always would. I have no doubts about his ability to stay a distance against chumppy top competition in these rich 6 horse field stakes to come.

Assuming the calibur of competition left, I essentially agree with you. However, I still think its likely that Girolamo is past his prime despite the sparse race record.

Also, Haynsefield and Morning Line seem like better candidates to fill the niche you're envisioning for him.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

This was certainly true of A.P. Indy himself as a racehorse. In nearly all his starts, he broke on top and led for the first hundred yards or so before settling into a mid-pack spot. Though I wouldn't say he was "struggling" to maintain position.



Assuming the calibur of competition left, I essentially agree with you. However, I still think its likely that Girolamo is past his prime despite the sparse race record.

Also, Haynsefield and Morning Line seem like better candidates to fill the niche you're envisioning for him.

AP Indy had alot more natural speed than most people seem to remember.

For instance, in what I would call maybe his second finest performance, we have..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWVAHhIr3Z8

And in the SA Derby, this clip shows him a few lengths back on the turn, but I recall him being closer up earlier in the race. Either way, it's not like being 3 off of Bertrando is exactly slow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eQSeOhJKW8

[Dahoss]

Considering it's 1-9 that Girolamo is going to Dubai, how is it even remotely possible he has any kind of campaign next year? He'll make a start or two in Dubai. If he hasn't been destroyed after that he'll resurface at Belmont or Saratoga. One or two starts before the Breeders Cup and that is it.

I just don't see what some of you others do with him. Don't get me wrong, by 2010 standards he's okay. But I'd rather have Morning Line, Successful Dan, Fly Down (assuming he doesn't get ruined going to Dubai), even Reading Colliery.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I just don't see what some of you others do with him. Don't get me wrong, by 2010 standards he's okay. But I'd rather have Morning Line, Successful Dan, Fly Down (assuming he doesn't get ruined going to Dubai), even Reading Colliery.

I hear ya. If he goes to Dubai you can forget about him.

I fear Fly Down is another one of those BC Classic 3rd place finishers who thrive going 10fs with a hot pace to aid them.

Going 9fs - in smaller fields - at easier paces for speed horses (like the '10 Jim Dandy) - I think he'll underachieve. However, there really isn't much out there - so maybe he'll win a big race or two on the square.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I hear ya. If he goes to Dubai you can forget about him.

I fear Fly Down is another one of those BC Classic 3rd place finishers who thrive going 10fs with a hot pace to aid them.

Going 9fs - in smaller fields - at easier paces for speed horses (like the '10 Jim Dandy) - I think he'll underachieve. However, there really isn't much out there - so maybe he'll win a big race or two on the square.

He did run well in the Dwyer and there wasn't much pace in there...but the field sucked too. But yeah, he is at the mercy of pace most of the time. Is Haynesfield coming back? I mistakenly thought he was a Belmont horse for the course. I know he was the only other horse other than the winner that ran their race in the Cigar, but he's okay.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

AP Indy had alot more natural speed than most people seem to remember.

For instance, in what I would call maybe his second finest performance, we have..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWVAHhIr3Z8

And in the SA Derby, this clip shows him a few lengths back on the turn, but I recall him being closer up earlier in the race. Either way, it's not like being 3 off of Bertrando is exactly slow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eQSeOhJKW8

He challenged for the lead the first 1/4 of his Belmont win and also broke on top under a snug hold in his BC Classic win.

His rally several lengths behind dead closer Strike The Gold after a horrendous start to reach contention in the JCGC would have achieved legendary status had he been able to sustain the run. Too bad Eddie D. let him get involved, he might have been a better price in his final start if he let him just follow the field the home.

Not sure what happened to him in Canada, the only real blight on his record.

[RockHardTen1985]

Going 9 or 10f on dirt, I would take a shot with Giralomo before I bet anyone out of the Clark!!!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He challenged for the lead the first 1/4 of his Belmont win and also broke on top under a snug hold in his BC Classic win.

His rally several lengths behind dead closer Strike The Gold after a horrendous start to reach contention in the JCGC would have achieved legendary status had he been able to sustain the run. Too bad Eddie D. let him get involved, he might have been a better price in his final start if he let him just follow the field the home.

Not sure what happened to him in Canada, the only real blight on his record.

That horrendous start you mention, he lost a shoe there. I mentioned his win against Treekster, himself a very nice horse that met an untimely end, was Indy's second finest race. His race in the JCGC was impossibly good and clearly his best performance.

He stunk in Canada because, I believe, he was under prepared for the race. Twenty years ago, Drysdale was absolutely the worst trainer out there for winning with horses off of a rest. Over a significant period of time, he was about 1% with those.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That horrendous start you mention, he lost a shoe there. I mentioned his win against Treekster, himself a very nice horse that met an untimely end, was Indy's second finest race. His race in the JCGC was impossibly good and clearly his best performance.

He stunk in Canada because, I believe, he was under prepared for the race. Twenty years ago, Drysdale was absolutely the worst trainer out there for winning with horses off of a rest. Over a significant period of time, he was about 1% with those.

If they breed Zenyatta to A. P. Indy ... that is going to be one extremely slow horse.