Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The $650,000 horse got hurt and never made it to the races. I do admit that it was a stupid comment though. There are so many things that can go wrong with a horse that you can never "guarantee" that one will turn out to be a stakes horse.

You mentioned a few horses that I was wrong about.

Let's look at all the horses I mentioned in the thread on promising 2 year olds and 3 year olds. We were talking about horses who had just broken their maidens. Here is a list of every horse I mentioned:

1. Uptowncharlybrown- He came back and won a stakes race.
2. Bear's Hard Ten- He came back and won a stakes race.
3. Sidney's Candy- He won the Santa Anita Derby
4. Bulldogger- He was totally mishandled but still won an allowance by 5 lengths and got a 103 Beyer.
5. Sister Dawn- She's won 3 races since then, two allowance races and a stakes race.
6. Kajiwara- Came back and ran 2nd beaten a length in 1:08 4/5.
7. Cowboy Gets Even- My worst pick. He came back and ran 2nd twice in a row in allowance races but never showed the ability of a good horse.
8. Trappe Shot- Won two allowance races, a stakes race and ran 2nd in the
Haskell.
There was only a single horse (Cowboy Gets Even) on that list whose ability I was probably wrong about.

I'm amused you included Sidney's Candy - as you only mentioned him after his stunningly impressive maiden win.

It would be like someone saying they "like" Uncle Mo after he wins his debut by a pole with a triple digit Beyer at Saratoga. Or saying they "like" Quality Road after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at AQU. Or saying they "like" Curlin after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at Gulfstream. Or saying they "like" Big Brown after he wins his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga.

It's kind of annoying when someone has the potential to be a good poster around here ... but instead they'd rather pull a Baghdad Bob routine because a horse like they like lost.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm amused you included Sidney's Candy - as you only mentioned him after his stunningly impressive maiden win.

It would be like someone saying they "like" Uncle Mo after he wins his debut by a pole with a triple digit Beyer at Saratoga. Or saying they "like" Quality Road after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at AQU. Or saying they "like" Curlin after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at Gulfstream. Or saying they "like" Big Brown after he wins his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga.

It's kind of annoying when someone has the potential to be a good poster around here ... but instead they'd rather pull a Baghdad Bob routine because a horse like they like lost.

Can I get Super Poster brownie points for Big Brown -- as a few on here can attest, I liked him before that maiden start.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Can I get Super Poster brownie points for Big Brown -- as a few on here can attest, I liked him before that maiden start.

I actually bet either $150 or $200 to win on him in his debut at 14-1. I would have bet more but I just wasn't that confident that he would be fit to win, first time out, going long. That trainer (Patrick Reynolds) did not have great numbers with first-timers.

[slotdirt]

You might be good at a lot of things, Rupert, but I think this thread has shown that you really weren't very good at watching races on at least one Saturday a couple weeks back.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

You might be good at a lot of things, Rupert, but I think this thread has shown that you really weren't very good at watching races on at least one Saturday a couple weeks back.

So all these people, myself included who think that Zenyatta looked really stiff and uncomfortable in the early going (not to mention Mike Smith who admitted that he thought about pulling her up) are all hallucinating or imagining things?

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

So all these people, myself included who think that Zenyatta looked really stiff and uncomfortable in the early going (not to mention Mike Smith who admitted that he thought about pulling her up) are all hallucinating or imagining things?

It occurs to me that you're picking perhaps the one valid point out of like 37 that you've made on this thread to prove that you've been right all along.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I actually bet either $150 or $200 to win on him in his debut at 14-1. I would have bet more but I just wasn't that confident that he would be fit to win first time out going long. That trainer (Patrick Reynolds) did not have great numbers with first-timers.

You're my hero!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm amused you included Sidney's Candy - as you only mentioned him after his stunningly impressive maiden win.

It would be like someone saying they "like" Uncle Mo after he wins his debut by a pole with a triple digit Beyer at Saratoga. Or saying they "like" Quality Road after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at AQU. Or saying they "like" Curlin after he runs a triple digit Beyer in his debut at Gulfstream. Or saying they "like" Big Brown after he wins his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga.

It's kind of annoying when someone has the potential to be a good poster around here ... but instead they'd rather pull a Baghdad Bob routine because a horse like they like lost.

That is what I was talking about. I was talking about picking horses that just broke their maiden (like Cowboy Gets Even). Some of them were obvious, others were not.

There are plenty of horses that break their maidens impressively that never do anything after that. I think I'm good at distinguishing between a 5 length maiden winner that is a good horse versus a 5 length maiden winner that isn't much horse, and I don't base it on the time they ran.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think I'm good at distinguishing between a 5 length maiden winner that is a good horse versus a 5 length maiden winner that isn't much horse,

It's a hell of a lot easier than people think.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

and I don't base it on the time they ran

I don't either - though it is obviously a factor I take into consideration.


However, perhaps you should.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...35&postcount=1

Call me crazy ... but Funny Cide, Discreet Cat, Big Brown, Quality Road, Plagerist, Ghostzapper, Southern Image, Spanish Chestnut, and Pro Prado sure sound like a much more impressive collection of horses than ...

Uptowncharlybrown, Bear's Hard Ten, Sidney's Candy, Bulldogger, Sister Dawn, Kajiwara, Cowboy Gets Even, and Trappe Shot

[Sightseek]

Poor Spanish Chestnut was cooked.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's a hell of a lot easier than people think.




I don't either - though it is obviously a factor I take into consideration.


However, perhaps you should.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...35&postcount=1

Call me crazy ... but Funny Cide, Discreet Cat, Big Brown, Quality Road, Plagerist, Ghostzapper, Southern Image, Spanish Chestnut, and Pro Prado sure sound like a much more impressive collection of horses than ...

Uptowncharlybrown, Bear's Hard Ten, Sidney's Candy, Bulldogger, Sister Dawn, Kajiwara, Cowboy Gets Even, and Trappe Shot

I'm usually not going to post one that is a no-brainer to everyone. I didn't feel the need to post Uncle Mo. He obviously looked like a slam dunk to everyone. I did post Boys at Tosconova because I saw the race live and knew that most people probably hadn't seen it yet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm usually not going to post one that is a no-brainer to everyone. I didn't feel the need to post Uncle Mo. He obviously looked like a slam dunk to everyone. I did post Boys at Tosconova because I saw the race live and knew that most people probably hadn't seen it yet.

There typically is very little to no betting value in those type of impressive maiden winners.

The real value comes when you can identify very underrated horses who are soundly beaten in lesser races - and don't have the best of forms going in.

There was a horse racing blog I believe called 'Trader Pete's Boom Boom Room' that was probably the best racing Blog in the land for all of the three or four days it was running.

Trader Pete did a single 'Horses to Watch' list after Saratoga's meet concluded. He only put one horse exiting a stakes race on the list .. Big Drama - who was beaten double digit lengths in the King's Bishop.

* Big Drama (4 races back, he was VERY fractious in the gate in the Preakness and held up start. He went head-to-head with Rachel Alexandra every step of the first five furlongs and stayed on to be beaten just 5.5 lengths.

2 races back, he opened up a 10 length lead through crazy fast fractions after just a half mile in the Wva Derby .. almost won anyway and collapsed from heat exaust on the pathway back to the barn area. In the King's Bishop .. he had to deal with pressing the fastest pace figure of the entire Saratoga meet while 4-to-5 wide through the turn. He was beaten 11 lengths with a close to impossible trip in a race he shouldn't have been entered back in off of short rest. Want to see him get some time off and come back fresh... he's a lot more talented than people think.

Trader Pete put only a single 2-year-old on his watch list... a horse named Eightyfive in a Fifty who was 3rd at 27/1 odds in a maiden race in his most recent race.

* Eightyfiveinafifty (Joint fastest unblinkered horse at OBS March 2yo sale. Gary Contessa trained 2yo was dismissed at 27/1 odds in his debut because it was a brutally tough race on paper.

Dueled head-to-head with first time blinkered experienced runner Discreetly Mine through screaming fast fractions (109 pace figure) - won the duel, but could only manage a sensational 3rd place finish. Pace rival Discreetly Mine finshed 4th.

Trader Pete made two nice calls - because 85ina50 won his next start by 19 lengths and Big Drama was given a layoff and returned to win the BC Sprint the following year.

Obviously - I just want to pat my buddy StoneGossard in the back - and mention his fine old site. http://traderpete.blogspot.com/

But basically, there is little value in impressive maiden winners. There's a lot more with soundly beaten horses who run better than people think.

[Dahoss]

...and Pricci had the nerve to call Steve a self promoter. Ha!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Pete is a vastly underrated poster here. He's so modest - I have to do his self promo for him.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There typically is very little to no betting value in those type of impressive maiden winners.

The real value comes when you can identify very underrated horses who are soundly beaten in lesser races - and don't have the best of forms going in.

There was a horse racing blog I believe called 'Trader Pete's Boom Boom Room' that was probably the best racing Blog in the land for all of the three or four days it was running.

Trader Pete did a single 'Horses to Watch' list after Saratoga's meet concluded. He only put one horse exiting a stakes race on the list .. Big Drama - who was beaten double digit lengths in the King's Bishop.




Trader Pete put only a single 2-year-old on his watch list... a horse named Eightyfive in a Fifty who was 3rd at 27/1 odds in a maiden race in his most recent race.



Trader Pete made two nice calls - because 85ina50 won his next start by 19 lengths and Big Drama was given a layoff and returned to win the BC Sprint the following year.

Obviously - I just want to pat my buddy StoneGossard in the back - and mention his fine old site. http://traderpete.blogspot.com/

But basically, there is little value in impressive maiden winners. There's a lot more with soundly beaten horses who run better than people think.

There was another blogger that was really good. I can't remember his name. He would come up with a play practically every day. In the first year he did it, he gave out around 160 plays (just betting to win or sometimes win and place) and the guy had an ROI for the year of +15%.

The next year he came up with even more plays. He came up with over 450 plays and his ROI was +6% that year. He had a pretty good following on the site but he finally stopped posting because he was afraid that he was costing himself money by giving out the plays to people who may be betting into the pools.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

He had a pretty good following on the site but he finally shut it down because he was afraid that he was costing himself money by giving out the plays to people who may be betting into the pools.