Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

One of the most ridiculous arguments that Beyer makes is that Zenyatta is better on synthetic surfaces and that running on synthetic surfaces are the main reason that she was 19 for 19. It's totally the opposite. She almost lost a few different races because of the surface. On the synthetic surfaces, she's beating horses by a neck that she would be beating on the dirt by 5 lengths (more like 10 lengths at 1 1/4 miles).

Beyer argues that come-from-behinders do beter on synthetic tracks. It is true that synthetic surfaces favor come-from-behinders in general. That is true in general, but all come-from-behinderds are not the same. Some have a really quick turn of foot and have push-button acceleration. That type of come-from-behinder is going to have a big edge on synthetics. A big, long-striding horse (like Zenyatta) that doesn't have that push-button acceleration, is actually at a disadvantage on a synthetic track. She's at a disadvantage because she is sometimes forced to make up 2-3 lengths in the final 1/8th of a mile against a horse that can sprint home the final 1/8th. It's tough to make up 2-3 lengths on a horse that is sprinting home in :11 2/5. That is why she barely beat some horses that she would beat by 5 lengths on the dirt. On the dirt, you don't have to worry about somebody sprinting home in :11 2/5.

[Metal Man]

Roger is funny and Mike Wellman better yet when he comments about the Zenyatta haters.

Roger uses the hour show for his own bashing of the ones he loves!

Funny stuff.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

One of the most ridiculous arguments that Beyer makes is that Zenyatta is better on synthetic surfaces and that running on synthetic surfaces are the main reason that she was 19 for 19. It's totally the opposite. She almost lost a few different races because of the surface. On the synthetic surfaces, she's beating horses by a neck that she would be beating on the dirt by 5 lengths (more like 10 lengths at 1 1/4 miles).

Beyer argues that come-from-behinders do beter on synthetic tracks. It is true that synthetic surfaces favor come-from-behinders in general. That is true in general, but all come-from-behinderds are not the same. Some have a really quick turn of foot and have push-button acceleration. That type of come-from-behinder is going to have a big edge on synthetics. A big, long-striding horse (like Zenyatta) that doesn't have that push-button acceleration, is actually at a disadvantage on a synthetic track. She's at a disadvantage because she is sometimes forced to make up 2-3 lengths in the final 1/8th of a mile against a horse that can sprint home the final 1/8th. It's tough to make up 2-3 lengths on a horse that is sprinting home in :11 2/5. That is why she barely beat some horses that she would beat by 5 lengths on the dirt. On the dirt, you don't have to worry about somebody sprinting home in :11 2/5.

So in your opinion her record would have been the same if there was no such thing as synthetics? That seems like a pretty big stretch.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So in your opinion her record would have been the same if there was no such thing as synthetics? That seems like a pretty big stretch.

It depends who she would have been running against. If she would have been running in 12 horse fields against grade I males, of course she would have got beaten plenty of times.

But against the horses she faced in California, I think she would have won by far bigger margins had the races been on dirt.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It depends who she would have been running against. If she would have been running in 12 horse fields against grade I males, of course she would have got beaten plenty of times.

But against the horses she faced in California, I think she would have won by far bigger margins had the races been on dirt.

I think she would have had a hard time running down Hystericalady in the 2008 Lady's Secret the way the pace of that race unfolded.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think she would have had a hard time running down Hystericalady in the 2008 Lady's Secret the way the pace of that race unfolded.

It's hard to say. She won that race very easily. She won by 3 1/2 lengths. On the other hand, Hystericalady moves way up on the dirt so it's hard to say. Zenyatta is obviously going to be more vulnerable to a horse like that at 1 1/16th than at 1 1/8 miles or 1 1/4 miles.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think she would have had a hard time running down Hystericalady in the 2008 Lady's Secret the way the pace of that race unfolded.

would have been fun to see, IMO that was the best race, along with the 08' AB that I had seen her run. The comment line should have been "won as pleased".

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

She's at a disadvantage because she is sometimes forced to make up 2-3 lengths in the final 1/8th of a mile against a horse that can sprint home the final 1/8th. It's tough to make up 2-3 lengths on a horse that is sprinting home in :11 2/5.

Therein lies the problem. She can make up that type of ground with those types of final furlongs on synthetics. She'd have no prayer of doing that on dirt.

The pace advantages that she spotted horses in the Clement Hirsch the last two years and the Lady's Secret in 2009 would be the end of her on dirt. It would be next to impossible to do that on dirt.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Therein lies the problem. She can make up that type of ground with those types of final furlongs on synthetics. She'd have no prayer of doing that on dirt.

The pace advantages that she spotted horses in the Clement Hirsch the last two years and the Lady's Secret in 2009 would be the end of her on dirt. It would be next to impossible to do that on dirt.

I totally disagree. Those fillies that she faced in those races would not be able to sprint home on the dirt. They could be going 1:15 and she could still spot those mediocre mares a 3-4 length lead at the quarter pole and run them down on the dirt. It would be much tougher to do that on a synthetic track.

Watch her 2008 race at Oaklawn. She made up over 10 lengths in the stretch (she was 6 lengths back at the quarter pole and ended up winning by 4 1/2 lengths). She could have never done that on a synthetic track.

As I've said in the past, I think they totally messed up her figure in that race because the clock malfunctioned in the Oaklawn Handicap (which was run an hour later) and the offocail time in the Oaklawn Handicap ended up being listed as 1:48 3/5. If you go to racereplays.com, they have the final time of the Oaklawn Handicap as 1:50.34. You can try clocking it yourself and that's what you will come up with. Zenyatta ran 1:42 3/5 an hour earlier. If you clock that race, you will see the time is correct. If Beyer knew that the actual time of the other race was 1:50.34, I wonder what number he gives to Zenyatta. I think it would have been more like a 112 or so.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I totally disagree. Those fillies that she faced in those races would not be able to sprint home on the dirt. They could be going 1:15 and she could still spot those mediocre mares a 3-4 length lead at the quarter pole and run them down. It would be much tougher to do that on a synthetic track.

Watch her first race at Oaklawn. She made up over 10 lengths in the stretch (she was 6 lengths back at the quarter pole and ended up winning by 4 1/2 lengths). She could have never done that on a synthetic track.

You're making a comparison using horses with little to no or horrible dirt form. Would Zenyatta dispose of Rinterval on dirt? Of course she would because Rinterval likely wouldn't take to dirt. She's never tried it.

Like Dahoss said, throw Zenyatta into a dirt race against a dirt horse like Hystericalady, or Life at Ten in this year's Del Cap where she walked on the lead, and it's going to be dicey in the last quarter.

The song about Zenyatta being better on dirt has been sung. Unfortunately her connections disagreed or else they might have tried her more on it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're making a comparison using horses with little to no or horrible dirt form. Would Zenyatta dispose of Rinterval on dirt? Of course she would because Rinterval likely wouldn't take to dirt. She's never tried it.

Like Dahoss said, throw Zenyatta into a dirt race against a dirt horse like Hystericalady, or Life at Ten in this year's Del Cap where she walked on the lead, and it's going to be dicey in the last quarter.

The song about Zenyatta being better on dirt has been sung. Unfortunately her connections disagreed or else they might have tried her more on it.

Zenyatta barely beat Dance to My Tune (1 1/2 lengths) on a :47 3/5 pace. Zenyatta barely beat St. Trinians on a :47 2/5 pace. The paces in those races were decent yet she still didn't win by much. If she can barely beat those horses and she is better on synthetics as you guys say, she wouldn't be able to get within 10 lengths of Blame.

[Danzig]

you'd have to think the whole game out west changed with the surface; that there'd have been a lot more competition and larger fields had they not gone to syns. some left and it kept others from shipping to race on the stuff.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're making a comparison using horses with little to no or horrible dirt form. Would Zenyatta dispose of Rinterval on dirt? Of course she would because Rinterval likely wouldn't take to dirt. She's never tried it.

Like Dahoss said, throw Zenyatta into a dirt race against a dirt horse like Hystericalady, or Life at Ten in this year's Del Cap where she walked on the lead, and it's going to be dicey in the last quarter.

The song about Zenyatta being better on dirt has been sung. Unfortunately her connections disagreed or else they might have tried her more on it.

Blame went the half in about :48 4/5 and Zenyatta was spotting him about 5 lengths at that point. If she can lay 5 lengths behind him in :48 4/5 and only lose by a head, I think she would be able to run down Life at Ten, even if Life at Ten slowed down the pace.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Blame went the half in about :48 4/5 and Zenyatta was spotting him about 5 lengths at that point. If she can lay 5 lengths behind him in :48 4/5 and only lose by a head, I think she would be able to run down Life at Ten, even if Life at Ten slowed down the pace.

I love the language....she was " spotting " him five lengths....as though she gave him a head start.

Too funny.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love the language....she was " spotting " him five lengths....as though she gave him a head start.

Too funny.

She did give him a huge head start. If they ran that race again, there is no way in hell that she would be 10 lengths behind him after 3 furlongs. He went :37. If you think that is her normal race to be 10 lengths behind a horse running 3 furlongs in :37 then I don't know what to say.

We'll never know for sure why she was so far back. It could have been the dirt in her face. Or as Cannon hypothesized, it could have been because Mike Smith did not warm her up in the post parade (in the 40 degree weather) and it took her the first 3 furlongs to get warmed up.

If they run that race again and everything went the same way in front of her, she's probably 3-5 lengths behind Blame after the 3 furlongs instead of 10 lengths behind him. That would have put her 13-15 lengths off the after 3 furlongs instead of 20 lengths off the lead.

I'm hardly the only one that thinks this. If you ask any trainer on the west coast, they will tell you the same thing. It doesn't mean for sure that we are right but it's the viewpoint of every person I know (not counting this board).

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love the language....she was " spotting " him five lengths....as though she gave him a head start.

Too funny.

I also like "that's hard to say". Which means yeah, she probably would have gotten beat.

She got beat fair and square Rupert...get over it already.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Blame went the half in about :48 4/5 and Zenyatta was spotting him about 5 lengths at that point. If she can lay 5 lengths behind him in :48 4/5 and only lose by a head, I think she would be able to run down Life at Ten, even if Life at Ten slowed down the pace.

So had she run in a dirt race similar to the JC Gold Cup what do you think her chances of running down Haynesfield that day were?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

So had she run in a dirt race similar to the JC Gold Cup what do you think her chances of running down Haynesfield that day were?

I don't know. That's hard to say. He ran huge that day. He could have run faster too. He was geared down. I don't know if she could have caught him. I'd have to analyze that race in much more detail. I don't know if there was any type of speed bias that day at Belmont. I honestly don't have a clue if she could have beaten him that day.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're making a comparison using horses with little to no or horrible dirt form. Would Zenyatta dispose of Rinterval on dirt? Of course she would because Rinterval likely wouldn't take to dirt. She's never tried it.

Like Dahoss said, throw Zenyatta into a dirt race against a dirt horse like Hystericalady, or Life at Ten in this year's Del Cap where she walked on the lead, and it's going to be dicey in the last quarter.

The song about Zenyatta being better on dirt has been sung. Unfortunately her connections disagreed or else they might have tried her more on it.

Would Zenyatta have beaten Icon Project on the dirt in some of those races last year?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Would Zenyatta have beaten Icon Project on the dirt in some of those races last year?

Not in the Personal Ensign in my opinion. She would have never run against her in the New York Stakes obviously because it was scheduled for turf and was run over a quagmire but it would have taken a huge effort to beat her that day at Saratoga.