What are they waiting for? Nominate her to the Matriarch

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I will ask you the same question that I asked BTW. You say, "The dynamics of the race were in her favor". Are you saying that in hindsight or would you have said that 5 minutes before the race if you knew that First Dude would have a 1 length lead in :47?

Who gives a s.hit what I would have said before the race? What I said before the race was I hope Blame wins. I thought he was going to get as good a pace setup as Zenyatta, had an advantage in terms of positional speed and I had no doubt he'd get 10fs. Thus, I bet Blame and Zenyatta (not a redboard).

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Who gives a s.hit what I would have said before the race? What I said before the race was I hope Blame wins. I thought he was going to get as good a pace setup as Zenyatta, had an advantage in terms of positional speed and I had no doubt he'd get 10fs. Thus, I bet Blame and Zenyatta (not a redboard).

Well that means you made a good call. Nice work.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Who gives a s.hit what I would have said before the race? What I said before the race was I hope Blame wins. I thought he was going to get as good a pace setup as Zenyatta, had an advantage in terms of positional speed and I had no doubt he'd get 10fs. Thus, I bet Blame and Zenyatta (not a redboard).

I think Rupert's looking at some of the fractions posted in the one-turn races that day - and he's assuming they should translate to the two-turn routes. It doesn't work like that at some tracks.

There are some tracks - Saratoga for instance - where the paces in 6.5 furlong races are always much faster than the paces at 6fs and 5.5s. You could assemble the slowest NY breds around - and they have a shot at going 21 and change for a first quarter going 6.5f at Saratoga.

It's why you need pace figures - and it's why you should have pars for every single distance at the track.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Rupert's looking at some of the fractions posted in the one-turn races that day - and he's assuming they should translate to the two-turn routes. It doesn't work like that at some tracks.

There are some tracks - Saratoga for instance - where the paces in 6.5 furlong races are always much faster than the paces at 6fs and 5.5s. You could assemble the slowest NY breds around - and they have a shot at going 21 and change for a first quarter going 6.5f at Saratoga.

It's why you need pace figures - and it's why you should have pars for every single distance at the track.

I would never compare the one-turn fractions to the two-turn fractions. I know you can't compare the two.

[Rupert Pupkin]

After further analysis, I think the pace was actually faster than I originally realized.

[Indian Charlie]

All I can add is, if I had a horse, at just about any track, that went 111 for 3/4 in a 10f race, I'd cringe.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

All I can add is, if I had a horse, at just about any track, that went 111 for 3/4 in a 10f race, I'd cringe.

Maybe they were scared of Zenyatta and were trying to run away from her as fast as possible. It is believed by some that Quality Road acted up in the gate before last year's Classic because he didn't want to face her.

[blackthroatedwind]

The idea that the Fat Lunatic doesn't understand why people bet against dramatic underlays makes me question how much he actually knows about betting horses. As I said before the race, Blame was the most likely winner. Given the insanely low odds on Zenyatta, you had to bet against her in all pools. That doesn't mean you don't protect with her in supers, in under slots, but even in that case you are betting against her.

This may not be Horseplaying 101, but it's not so advanced that someone who claims to be as sharp as the Fat Lunatic should understand it implicitly.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

All I can add is, if I had a horse, at just about any track, that went 111 for 3/4 in a 10f race, I'd cringe.

Hard Spun went :46 1/5 and 1:11 at Churchill in the Ky Derby and still ran 2nd. Big Brown was 3 lengths off a :47 and 1:11 pace and he was 3-4 wide and still won the Derby easily. Funny Cide was sitting 2 lengths off a :46 1/5 and 1:10 2/5 pace in the Derby and he won. The track was probably a little faster on those days than it was in the Classic.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Hard Spun went :46 1/5 and 1:11 at Churchill in the Ky Derby and still ran 2nd. Big Brown was 3 lengths off a :47 and 1:11 pace and he was 3-4 wide and still won the Derby easily. Funny Cide was sitting 2 lengths off a :46 1/5 and 1:10 2/5 pace in the Derby and he won. The track was probably a little faster on those days than it was in the Classic.

It was a generalization.