11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

FILLY & MARE SPRINT (5:30p)

1. My Jen (E. Kenneally/J. Velazquez) 15-1
2. Sara Louise (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 15-1
3. Secret Gypsy (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 12-1
4. Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 7-2
5. Evening Jewel (J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza)
6. Moontune Missy (E. Harty/A. Garcia) 30-1
7. Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 15-1
8. Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/M. Smith) 30-1
9. Switch (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) 20-1
10. Rinterval (E. Reed/R. Bejarano) 20-1
11. Jessica Is Back (M. Wolfson/J. Castellano) 12-1
12. Dubai Majesty (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot) 6-1
13. Rightly So (A. Dutrow/C. Velasquez) 3-1*
14. Champagne D'oro (E. Guillot/M. Mena) 6-1
AE-15 Tidal Pool (W. Lukas) 50-1
AE-16. First Passage (M. Wolfson) 50-1

Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

And run like she should be 100-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

And run like she should be 100-1.

Why? Her dirt race wasn't bad.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why? Her dirt race wasn't bad.

Granted it was probably a lot farther than she wants to go but I didn't think much of her dirt race. The pace was decent but she folded up and Gulfstream isn't exactly a track known for exposing distance-challenged horses.

Sadler is 1 for 11 with graded stakes horses going synth to dirt with Mona De Momma being the lone exception and there have been numerous small price losers. I guess 15-1 would be a decent enough price on her but I'm just not high on her chances to win.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Granted it was probably a lot farther than she wants to go but I didn't think much of her dirt race. The pace was decent but she folded up and Gulfstream isn't exactly a track known for exposing distance-challenged horses.

It was a nice race for a mile from a lightly raced horse.

They ran three 9f routes that day:

Devil May Care went her mile in 1:35.59

Rule went his mile in 1:36.09 on a 2 length lead in the Fla Derby before caving in late.

Unrivalled Belle went her mile in 1:36.25 on a 1.5 length lead

Basically - Switch ran her mile in the same time as Rule did in the Florida Derby .. and she was mixing it up with a pack of pretty good in-form 3yo filly milers like Amen Hall and Christine Daae.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was a nice race for a mile from a lightly raced horse.

They ran three 9f routes that day:

Devil May Care went her mile in 1:35.59

Rule went his mile in 1:36.09 on a 2 length lead in the Fla Derby before caving in late.

Unrivalled Belle went her mile in 1:36.25 on a 1.5 length lead

Basically - Switch ran her mile in the same time as Rule did in the Florida Derby .. and she was mixing it up with a pack of pretty good in-form 3yo filly milers like Amen Hall and Christine Daae.

I see what you're saying I'm just not keen on her in this spot. It's a tremendously wide open race and the Z crowd will guarantee she and Rinterval are overbet I think.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I see what you're saying I'm just not keen on her in this spot. It's a tremendously wide open race and the Z crowd will guarantee she and Rinterval are overbet I think.

Most of the "Z crowd" seem to think the horse is like some kind of equine drama queen who is more concerened with dancing in the pre-race and pricking her ears for the photo finish camera than anything else.

Put her in with Ohio breds at Thistle or with Indy Cars at the Brickyard and the result will be the same... a well timed narrow Zenyatta win.

I doubt a whole lot of them are planning their Friday around betting Switch and Rinterval.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I see what you're saying I'm just not keen on her in this spot. It's a tremendously wide open race and the Z crowd will guarantee she and Rinterval are overbet I think.

How do you explain Rinterval taking no money in her last start at Kee?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

Will Sara Louise at 15-1 be an okay bet?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Will Sara Louise at 15-1 be an okay bet?

Off of only a single uninspiring race this year? Not for me.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Off of only a single uninspiring race this year? Not for me.

she likes churchill and the field seems to royally suck.

Is Informed Decision a toss on dirt?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

she likes churchill and the field seems to royally suck.

Is Informed Decision a toss on dirt?

I would make my largest win bet in BC history if the race was 7fs on synthetic.

It's not - and Informed Decision can beat me.

[cakes44]

So what is the ML on Evening Jewel?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Off of only a single uninspiring race this year? Not for me.

I think she's going to get a lot out of that start. She really only ran for a furlong or so in the Gallant Bloom. The Godolphin horses really haven't been firing off the long layoffs here like they had in years past. But some have run a lot better second back. Plus she is getting a giant jock upgrade.

I think she has a very good shot in here.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think she's going to get a lot out of that start. She really only ran for a furlong or so in the Gallant Bloom. The Godolphin horses really haven't been firing off the long layoffs here like they had in years past. But some have run a lot better second back. Plus she is getting a giant jock upgrade.

I think she has a very good shot in here.

I think the Gallant Bloom in general is better than the figs suggest. I like Moontune Missy to hit the board at a high number too.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think the Gallant Bloom in general is better than the figs suggest. I like Moontune Missy to hit the board at a high number too.

Possible. I like cutbacks though. Evening Jewel is one of the ones.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think the Gallant Bloom in general is better than the figs suggest. I like Moontune Missy to hit the board at a high number too.

I like her a bit as well...but I liked her a lot more last time and that head cost me a grand. It's a fascinating race and I can't see using any horse less than double digit odds. IMO all of the favorites have major holes in them.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

I was shocked at that ML.
I thought off the Zenyatta running line she would 6,8-1ml.