Breeders Cup betting??

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Scav

The back wheel is the most under utilized part of handicapping that most people never talk about. I always forget about it because like an idiot I just hit the WP button instead.

I make the same mistake, but not as much as I used to. Part of it is laziness and part of it is stubborness. Not a great combo.

[hockey2315]

If you're betting overlays there's no reason to back-up. . . you'll win more over time. Obviously I'll box the horse I like to win w/ the logical horses if I think it's a contentious enough race or if I think there's only one horse who can beat mine I'll play that exacta straight or both ways depending on price. I'm not backing up my 6 or 8-1 shots with exactas under the chalks, because I'm not going to jump off a bridge if I run second and I'm only cutting into my (perceived) advantage.

The bottom line is that hedging kills your edge if you have one.

Look at the contest JMS and I had. We both ended up up, but were down on place bets if I remember correctly. I think the worst time to bet to place is when you're trying to beat a big favorite. You're getting a deflated place pay-off when the chalk runs second, and your EV goes down on your opinion that the favorite was beatable.

I will say, though. that if you're going to bet the Breeders' Cup w/ more enthusiasm than you normally bet on a day-to-day or weekend-to-weekend basis, then some sort of hedging/backing up to cut down on the variance is fairly safe and acceptable.

[NTamm1215]

This is a good thread in general because there are so many options with regards to Breeders' Cup betting. I agree with the exacta under the logicals in lieu of a place bet.

Last year 6 of the 14 Breeders' Cup races featured "IRS" payoffs for 10 cent supers. 11 of them paid over $250. The late Pick 4 was three solid favorites and a 21-1 shot, that could rationally be construed as an overlay, and it paid $752, reduced a few hundred dollars after Quality Road's scratch.

It's important to have a plan to be diverse, and of course, figure out what to bet after you figure out who you like.