Breeders Cup betting??

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse over the favorite than bet the horse to place.

A thread does not make it right. If you like a big priced horse bet it w/p. Who says the chalk is always going to win?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

A thread does not make it right. If you like a big priced horse bet it w/p. Who says the chalk is always going to win?

The thread examined 250 races. That is a pretty large sample. Obviously I wouldn't recommend JUST playing the favorite, but that was how the thread went.

I know you have no desire to look at other ways of doing things, but some might. Say you like a horse and are going to bet $20 win/place. You're better off playing $25 or $30 to win and then using the rest playing your horse second in exactas.

I used to bet win/place, but I almost never do anymore.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The thread examined 250 races. That is a pretty large sample. Obviously I wouldn't recommend JUST playing the favorite, but that was how the thread went.

I know you have no desire to look at other ways of doing things, but some might. Say you like a horse and are going to bet $20 win/place. You're better off playing $25 or $30 to win and then using the rest playing your horse second in exactas.

I used to bet win/place, but I almost never do anymore.

I look at things different, and of course I have a desire to make $/more $. I just dont think its a lock system. You play it that way, then what happens if a bomb runs 1,3 and you can get $20p $12S..... Or something bigger like Phil said $50p $30s

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I look at things different, and of course I have a desire to make $/more $. I just dont think its a lock system. You play it that way, then what happens if a bomb runs 1,3 and you can get $20p $12S..... Or something bigger like Phil said $50p $30s

I know how you look at things. Nothing will change your mind after it's made up. But others might, which is why Hockey brought it up and I added to it.

Take the case Phil brought up. Say you bet $10 across the board on Friendly Island. You would have gotten back $414. But, if you bet $15 to win and then back wheeled for $1, you would have gotten back $477.70. Say you thought there were 5 horses that were also logical (the winner being one of them) you could have bet $20 win on Friendly Island and $2 exactas with Friendly Island underneath. The $2 exacta paid $955.40.

Obviously it isn't going to work out every single time, but in the long run, I'm confident it does.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I know how you look at things. Nothing will change your mind after it's made up. But others might, which is why Hockey brought it up and I added to it.

Take the case Phil brought up. Say you bet $10 across the board on Friendly Island. You would have gotten back $414. But, if you bet $15 to win and then back wheeled for $1, you would have gotten back $477.70. Say you thought there were 5 horses that were also logical (the winner being one of them) you could have bet $20 win on Friendly Island and $2 exactas with Friendly Island underneath. The $2 exacta paid $955.40.

Obviously it isn't going to work out every single time, but in the long run, I'm confident it does.

The back wheel is the most under utilized part of handicapping that most people never talk about. I always forget about it because like an idiot I just hit the WP button instead.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Scav

The back wheel is the most under utilized part of handicapping that most people never talk about. I always forget about it because like an idiot I just hit the WP button instead.

I make the same mistake, but not as much as I used to. Part of it is laziness and part of it is stubborness. Not a great combo.

[hockey2315]

If you're betting overlays there's no reason to back-up. . . you'll win more over time. Obviously I'll box the horse I like to win w/ the logical horses if I think it's a contentious enough race or if I think there's only one horse who can beat mine I'll play that exacta straight or both ways depending on price. I'm not backing up my 6 or 8-1 shots with exactas under the chalks, because I'm not going to jump off a bridge if I run second and I'm only cutting into my (perceived) advantage.

The bottom line is that hedging kills your edge if you have one.

Look at the contest JMS and I had. We both ended up up, but were down on place bets if I remember correctly. I think the worst time to bet to place is when you're trying to beat a big favorite. You're getting a deflated place pay-off when the chalk runs second, and your EV goes down on your opinion that the favorite was beatable.

I will say, though. that if you're going to bet the Breeders' Cup w/ more enthusiasm than you normally bet on a day-to-day or weekend-to-weekend basis, then some sort of hedging/backing up to cut down on the variance is fairly safe and acceptable.