Admiral Alex in the Travers

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You took a long break from the Pk4's didn't you?

i love how some writers are still listing Steinbeck as possible for the Travers

Never know about Steinbeck? Maybe he needed that 2 mile race as a workout Ya even tho he ran pretty good according to reports,hard to believe they can fly him back to NY and he is ready 11 days later.

Also just read after Dutrow talked up Trickmeister for 2 weeks. Think I heard about 20 times how he was gonna beat First Dude for the lead then go wire to wire,he probably will not even run. Instead will go up against Our Dark Knight on Friday

I wish trainers would just shutup and run their horse.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by EpBurns

I agree on the premise that this horse on paper doesnt have a shot and it seems to be very unlikely but the I have a rooting interest in this horse cause my Uncle and Blu have been friends for more then 50 years, I spent a weekend with them at Saratoga and got to see The admiral up close and personal and he is a fine looking horse which of course doesnt win races, the damn was unraced filly my uncle owned and was named after my grandmother i know all you horse people could care less but its means something to me, so even though the pundits give this horse no shot I wouldnt put anything past Leon, if I am correct he had Snow Plow go from a maiden victory to a graded victory in her next start? So beware and let the hype begin, by the way Madame Lagonza was a very fast filly at least on the workout tab before she got injured.

What are you talking about? If anything, on paper is where he does have a shot. Who has the top beyer in this race? This guy ran an 87 first start of his career going 9f. A win that came over this track and he was wide the entire way around the track. He is not far behind the top horses on paper, and routine improvment from first-second start is always expected. Is it crazy to think a horse talented enough to run an 87 going 9f first time out can jump up to a 100 second time out? I dont think its crazy at all.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by EpBurns

I can see why people constantly critize you! You come off as a know it all, How many horse that didnt run at 2 break thier maiden in there 1st start at 3 and then go and win a grade 1 late in the season in a race like the Travers?? when my uncle told me that Admiral Alex next race 10 minutes after his maiden score was the travers I told my uncle on the phone the horse would be 80-1!!!

Thanks for the advice, and the inside info.

[-BT-]

Is the whole premise of this thread to prove to people that he has a chance?
Or
Is this yet another thread where people disagree and you take the other side for arguments sake?

It sounds like you think he has a “shot”. is your money gonna be on him Saturday, is he a horse you’re gonna use? If so why? Don’t just take the counter side of everyone’s opinion for the sake of arguing. Sure his FIRST AND ONLY race was a good one, nothing eye-popping, awesome, good for him and good for his owners. If I can recall, 90% of that field didn’t have one start under their belt, which goes without saying but it was also a maiden field? Sure he can improve, but in a lot of people’s minds its not likely you go from a maiden to being a grade 1 winner in your next start at the age of 3, at least anywhere but cali. Your on paper argument doesn’t hold much weight considering your entire basis of this horse is off 1 race… a maiden victory. 87 beyers can be had by 20K claimers at the spa, does that mean on paper they’re as good as G2 and G1 horses?
Keep in mind horses also tend to bounce off big efforts as well. I, like most who have replied, think he has an uphill battle. I wont say impossible, b/c nothing Is impossible in this sport, just not likely

-bt-

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Is the whole premise of this thread to prove to people that he has a chance?
Or
Is this yet another thread where people disagree and you take the other side for arguments sake?

It sounds like you think he has a “shot”. is your money gonna be on him Saturday, is he a horse you’re gonna use? If so why? Don’t just take the counter side of everyone’s opinion for the sake of arguing. Sure his FIRST AND ONLY race was a good one, nothing eye-popping, awesome, good for him and good for his owners. If I can recall, 90% of that field didn’t have one start under their belt, which goes without saying but it was also a maiden field? Sure he can improve, but in a lot of people’s minds its not likely you go from a maiden to being a grade 1 winner in your next start at the age of 3, at least anywhere but cali. Your on paper argument doesn’t hold much weight considering your entire basis of this horse is off 1 race… a maiden victory. 87 beyers can be had by 20K claimers at the spa, does that mean on paper they’re as good as G2 and G1 horses?
Keep in mind horses also tend to bounce off big efforts as well. I, like most who have replied, think he has an uphill battle. I wont say impossible, b/c nothing Is impossible in this sport, just not likely

-bt-

Go back and read the thread... Multiple people said he has a shot, including Steve. I am the only one who was insulted.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Is the whole premise of this thread to prove to people that he has a chance?
Or
Is this yet another thread where people disagree and you take the other side for arguments sake?

It sounds like you think he has a “shot”. is your money gonna be on him Saturday, is he a horse you’re gonna use? If so why? Don’t just take the counter side of everyone’s opinion for the sake of arguing.

He asked a question about an interesting possible starter in one of the biggest races of the year. I don't see what's so wrong about that.
Why not have a discussion about the horse? I don't think he has much of a shot either, but it seems worthy of a discussion. You really want/expect him to tell you who he's going to bet on already? That seems a bit premature. PG85 made his argument about why he liked the horse's debut, and although I don't entirely agree with it, he did make some points.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He asked a question about an interesting possible starter in one of the biggest races of the year. I don't see what's so wrong about that.
Why not have a discussion about the horse? I don't think he has much of a shot either, but it seems worthy of a discussion. You really want/expect him to tell you who he's going to bet on already? That seems a bit premature. PG85 made his argument about why he liked the horse's debut, and although I don't entirely agree with it, he did make some points.

Thanks.
Im not even sure I like him, but I thought Andy was a bit extreme. Like you said, I responded with some facts and points about why he is not impossible and Andy insulted me.... Then EpBurns comes out of no where talking **** about stuff that was in the news paper the next day, and on DRF.com that night. Anyone at the track new the owner was talking Travers, but hey the guy has an inside connection with the barn.....

[hockey2315]

i still don't understand what this horse supposedly has going for him. . . it's not like his debut was even that impressive.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He asked a question about an interesting possible starter in one of the biggest races of the year. I don't see what's so wrong about that.
Why not have a discussion about the horse? I don't think he has much of a shot either, but it seems worthy of a discussion. You really want/expect him to tell you who he's going to bet on already? That seems a bit premature. PG85 made his argument about why he liked the horse's debut, and although I don't entirely agree with it, he did make some points.

i have no problem with a discussion, everyone has put out some pretty valid points. But i don't think its productive to just defend a horses chances for the sake of conversation. it almost seems like he's taking the middle on this horse, thinks he has a chances, but wont bet on him.....well i think that about every horse in every race... i just don't make a production about it.

that being said i stand by what serling posted earlier... Bunky has no shot for win in my opinion, though his maiden voyage was impressive he didn't appear to be a world beater, i think the owner/trainer is beating a lot of pots and pans and the media is eating it up.

-bt-

[johnny pinwheel]

does this horse have a chance? every horse has a chance, thats what people never get....even people that call themselves handicappers. its a freakin horse race, known as gambling on animals. anything can happen. what are this horses chances relative to his race time odds? i can gaurantee you that the odds will be lower than they are worth just from the garbage i'm reading here.......lol. i could not bet this horse on top for less than 40 or 50 to 1 and thats being kind.......lol

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i have no problem with a discussion, everyone has put out some pretty valid points. But i don't think its productive to just defend a horses chances for the sake of conversation. it almost seems like he's taking the middle on this horse, thinks he has a chances, but wont bet on him.....well i think that about every horse in every race... i just don't make a production about it.

that being said i stand by what serling posted earlier... Bunky has no shot for win in my opinion, though his maiden voyage was impressive he didn't appear to be a world beater, i think the owner/trainer is beating a lot of pots and pans and the media is eating it up.

-bt-

Right.....it isn't Saturday yet. This is the time for open-ended discussion, not betting.
I've criticized PG85 about 500 times for declaring the winner of a race before the PPs even come out. For him to be discussing a colt's chances without either declaring him a superstar or calling him a worthless slug is actually pretty significant progress on his part.

As for me, I would want no part of the colt at anything less than about 40/1, if the field comes up as expected. He certainly could take a step forward in his second start, but he would have to improve dramatically while going 10f in just his second start. That seems unlikely.