HOY sense

'Fresh' horses do not win BC races, as a rule. Therefore, I see Invasor and David Junior with little chance. The award is between the two most worthy, Bernardini and Lava Man.

The bigger question is what happens if Invasor finishes ahead of Lava Man but Invasor doesn't win the race (expecting Bernardini or David Junior to win). Who is champion Older Male? I still say Lava Man given 4 Grade 1's with one on turf plus a Grade 2 and a million $ restricted stakes race trump 3 east coast Grade 1's. Any thoughts?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by FairPlay

The bigger question is what happens if Invasor finishes ahead of Lava Man but Invasor doesn't win the race (expecting Bernardini or David Junior to win). Who is champion Older Male? I still say Lava Man given 4 Grade 1's with one on turf plus a Grade 2 and a million $ restricted stakes race trump 3 east coast Grade 1's. Any thoughts?

I think the champion Older Male is going to be Lava Man. I think he is actually going to run well at Churchill Downs. I changed my mind about him.

[Danzig]

i think lava man has top older wrapped up, multi-surface winner, unbeaten all year.
it is hard to see one of these three not winning. but you never know, which is why they run them! certainly will put a wrinkle into things. but at this point i don't see barbaro getting hoy. i think either bernardini or lava man will get hoy even if they both lose. only way one of them doesn't get it is if invasor wins the classic.
someone asked if its believed invasor will really run in the classic? if he's healthy, yeah, i think he does.