Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette at Saratoga with 2-year-olds has been an amazing angle going back at least as far as 1998. He goes out and gets the right type of horses for those races and he gets them ready.

Most of the time - those horses won't develop much. But there are exceptions like Dream Rush, High Finance, Read the Footnotes, Summer Doldrums etc.

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

Should they? Somehow, I suspect that they're not paying significant six-figures sums to win a maiden race worth $50K, only to have the horse never be heard from again. Winning a debut race is great, but at what cost to the horse's future. I'm not saying it's necessarily Violette's fault. We don't know, for example, what pressure an owner is placing on him to get the horses to the races early. In this regard, the Klaravich horses that others are training also seem to be getting to the races relatively early.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Should they? Somehow, I suspect that they're not paying significant six-figures sums to win a maiden race worth $50K, only to have the horse never be heard from again. Winning a debut race is great, but at what cost to the horse's future. I'm not saying it's necessarily Violette's fault. We don't know, for example, what pressure an owner is placing on him to get the horses to the races early. In this regard, the Klaravich horses that others are training also seem to be getting to the races relatively early.

Better to win that MSW race early than win no race at all.

I think a lot of those horses are simply very precocius types who are fast and way ahead of the game early. A lot of them also have had it put to them early on to be so sharp for the sales.

I agree with you that it's stupid to pay 200K for a horse just to win a 50K MSW race right away. If they sold them all right after those sharp early scores - their ROI might be a lot better.

It's not like the guys buying the yearlings are doing any better. They'll spend 200K on one - and sometimes you finally see a few published works at age 3 - the horse runs once or twice - peforms badly and that's it. Sometimes they never even start at all.

Violette shouldn't be expected to develop his horses like a Zito or Bill Mott might just because he wins more often with them as debuting 2yos at Saratoga. Those guys have a million more horses - and those guys debuters typically run like first time starters. Violette doesn't have the quantity - and his debuters often run like they've already started 7 different times.

[Betsy]

Brock is taking money at 3-1, but none of the other firsters are; Stay Thirsty is even money with 7 minutes to post

[jms62]

2.3 million piece of deuce.. As I said what kind of moron would buy a horse for 2.3 million

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by jms62

2.3 million piece of deuce.. As I said what kind of moron would buy a horse for 2.3 million

I have X and I buy a horse for Y...Dude has xxxx he will buy a horse for YYYY..It's all about the action

[Sightseek]

Valiant Passion was bought by Team Valor and given to Pletcher for training.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Valiant Passion was bought by Team Valor and given to Pletcher for training.

Why not? Just another step towards every horse in the country being in one of four different barns.

NT

[ateamstupid]

Another example of why trying to 'read' workouts is useless: RudyRod's $27 winner Saltamontes in today's 2nd race at Saratoga. This filly had all of THREE printed works, a slow 4f breeze 7/21 at AQU, a middling 4f breeze 8/2 at SAR and a faster 5f gate breeze 8/12 at SAR. Based on what you saw in the works, the horse was a total pitch, but Rudy the Magic Man finds yet another way to put one over in NY.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Another example of why trying to 'read' workouts is useless: RudyRod's $27 winner Saltamontes in today's 2nd race at Saratoga. This filly had all of THREE printed works, a slow 4f breeze 7/21 at AQU, a middling 4f breeze 8/2 at SAR and a faster 5f gate breeze 8/12 at SAR. Based on what you saw in the works, the horse was a total pitch, but Rudy the Magic Man finds yet another way to put one over in NY.

I just watched this replay before looking at the PP's. I figured the horse had made one or two starts before being transferred to Rudy, but was surprised to see she was a FTS with 3 published works. Face it...Rudy's genius knows no boundaries.

[Betsy]

Obviously I don't know how good the race will turn out to be, but I'm certainly happy with Bernardini's 5th winner. The time was a lot slower than Bulldogger's, but I don't need to see a 2 year old by Bernardini running that fast. He's speedy - not sure how far he'd want to go, but we'll find out.

[JerseyJ]

I can't wait to bet against this horse next time...he practically crawled on the lead and beat a bunch of horses who are going to be bet againsts next time out. A McPeek no hoper who was 31-1 was 2nd in this group. Hell, 15K NW2L Filly and Mare Claimers set a quicker pace than him...I think this ends up being a big time negative key race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

I can't wait to bet against this horse next time...he practically crawled on the lead and beat a bunch of horses who are going to be bet againsts next time out. A McPeek no hoper who was 31-1 was 2nd in this group. Hell, 15K NW2L Filly and Mare Claimers set a quicker pace than him...I think this ends up being a big time negative key race.

I played a whacky tri and was sick of my bad ticket structure
11/5,8,9/all/... Anyway the point is, I think the 8 ran well. I also think the 9 will be ok.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

I can't wait to bet against this horse next time...he practically crawled on the lead and beat a bunch of horses who are going to be bet againsts next time out. A McPeek no hoper who was 31-1 was 2nd in this group. Hell, 15K NW2L Filly and Mare Claimers set a quicker pace than him...I think this ends up being a big time negative key race.

That filly claiming race was at 6 1/2 furlongs though and you know the times are screwy at that distance at Saratoga. Seems like the track got slow as the day went on.

I think there are going to be a few next out winners out of the race. Orsonian ran well with some trouble. Was slammed at the start then rank early as he seemed to not like dirt in his face. When he finally got running he closed well and while he might not have beaten the winner, he was probably second best. He's going to win next out.

Magnet Cove got hit pretty hard on both sides coming out of the gate and flew home. Should be dangerous going two turns next time. Brock ran too bad to be true. Fair Whit battled, at least a little down the lane and seeing an improved run out of him next time should be expected. The same could be said for Eltheeb who ran like a horse that wants to go farther.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

That filly claiming race was at 6 1/2 furlongs though and you know the times are screwy at that distance at Saratoga. Seems like the track got slow as the day went on.

I think there are going to be a few next out winners out of the race. Orsonian ran well with some trouble. Was slammed at the start then rank early as he seemed to not like dirt in his face. When he finally got running he closed well and while he might not have beaten the winner, he was probably second best. He's going to win next out.

Magnet Cove got hit pretty hard out on both sides coming out of the gate and flew home. Should be dangerous going two turns next time. Brock ran too bad to be true. Fair Whit battled, at least a little down the lane and seeing an improved run out of him next time should be expected. The same could be said for Eltheeb who ran like a horse that wants to go farther.

Can you please use numbers, so I dont have to go back and check out who your talking about. Numbers would be easier, already in mind from seeing the race 4x.

[hockey2315]

Dude just go to the first page of this thread. The 5 is Orsonian - I agree w/ Hoss about him.

[Dahoss]

If you saw the race 4x, then I imagine you saw everything that I'm talking about already.