What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think your wrong. Speed never really hold even with real slow fractions. It favors stalkers IMO. Closers have a hell of a time getting to the wire.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You should be happy. I think your local track has the fairest turf course. Maybe I'm wrong.

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Why is that?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Why is that?

Really? I thought it was fairly obvious. I never want to see any horse I bet pressing the pace. Its just not where you want to be. What advantage do you have? I want to be on the lead, stalking tucked in, or coming from out of it in a fast paced race.
IMO they seem to back up/stop more then any other type of horse. The speed either keeps going or your sucked into a hot pace and stuck making the first, most of the time premature move.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Because jocks continually botch it up by moving too soon. If you're chasing a lone speed, you're supposed to go after it late stretch. If you get it, fine. If not, you're 2nd. For some reason, jocks seem to think that the finish line is on the turn.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Because jocks continually botch it up by moving too soon. If you're chasing a lone speed, you're supposed to go after it late stretch. If you get it, fine. If not, you're 2nd. For some reason, jocks seem to think that the finish line is on the turn.

I hate when that happens, especially when the speed hits another gear and stays with the presser.

[philcski]

No statistics to back it up but I also like Fair Grounds' turf course. No argument for anyone saying Belmont outer (except NOT at a mile and a sixteenth) or Woodbine, either.

The 'most fun' turf course is far and away Kentucky Downs. What a great place.

As for the pressers question, I think part of it is pressers tend to be speed that can't make the lead and don't want or know how to pass, so they invariably back up and run terribly. A STRONG presser versus cheap speed is about the best trip, IMO, because there's (a) no trouble and (b) no decision to be made about when to make a move.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Certainly has worked out that way at Arlington this year.

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Polytrack

Closers: 104/421 = 24.7%
Stalkers: 125/421 = 29.7%
Pressers: 71/421 = 16.9%
Speed: 121/421 = 28.7%

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.

I think it's generally a pretty fair course, one of my favorites to bet on...but it does trend slightly to closers or speed horses, in my opinion, either way, but since that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, I really think that lots of the races that are won by speed or closers boils down to race dynamics rather than any intrinsic unfairness in the course.

It becomes a bit more extreme when broken out, though.

Rail 0-42 feet

Stalkers/Closers 60/109 = 55%
Pressers/Speed 49/109 = 45%



Rail 43-87 feet

Stalkers/Closers 44/71 = 62%
Pressers/Speed 27/71 = 38%

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Scav

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

Thomas.... good stat.

[tiggerv]

Average field size, number of races at distance, wire-to-wire win percentage and win percentage of horses sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd at first call. Broken out by distance and firm/wet turf.

365 Day Stats (Not just current meet)

Arlington


Colonial

[Scav]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Average field size, number of races at distance, wire-to-wire win percentage and win percentage of horses sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd at first call. Broken out by distance and firm/wet turf.

365 Day Stats (Not just current meet)

Arlington


Colonial

Thanks for these....

Can you get a current meet one?

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

Pretty sure it's Bermuda grass. I think it looks terrible but plays very fair.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

Look at the topic title.



Don't you feel Rock Tardish??

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thanks for these....

Can you get a current meet one?

Yeah, I closed out of my database but I will pull them. I will pull Fairgrounds too

[tiggerv]

AP Current Meet

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

Not as bad as it seems watching the races.

13 of 48 (27%) turf sprints have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call (which I know is very near the end of these sprints, but it's the best way to measure it....if a speed horse was up front and going to win, they'd likely still be there, but remember that these "style" stats are done by eye, so the speed winners really are speed winners, and likely fit the criteria listed above).

10 of 32 (31%) turf sprints at 5f have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call.

And funnily enough, Surfer Rosa has the meet record for most lengths OFF the pace at the half-mile call to have won.