The Travers

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Ok so you're using Lost Mountain's 107 beyer as proof of his historic comparison to LAL ? Then I see the pps of a horse who's not even on the list in question. Who by the way looked like a tough customer.

I get that. Some horses are born in the wrong year. But often their measure of talent can be exaggerated because of who they faced just as a horse like
LAL's ability is downgraded because of who he has been beating. There is a median in there somewhere and Beyer numbers aren't the end all in determining how good a horse is. If they were Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road would be household names.

I wouldn't mind seeing Lost Mountain's pps. I bet him in the Derby.

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Ok so back to the list in question. If Phil ranked LAL last on that list and did so along the lines of what you are saying, using the beyer number for that given race as the determining factor of how a horse would "rank" among others, not so much how a horse would rank historically among those same horses, then I have no argument.

Simply place the number next to each horse and leave it at that. Don't bother explaining who ran behind LAL because the number is the determining factor.

No, my critical ranking was not based solely on the Beyer numbers assigned. Let's look at this critically- of the 3yo restricted races, the Haskell would rank 4th behind the Derby, Preakness, and Travers for races "I want to win" (given that the Belmont has become somewhat irrelevant in a non-TC year). It's a serious and important race in the landscape of 3yo racing and a race I happen to love. They draw really good/great fields and important horses, benchmark types. I looked at each of the horses and said "do I want them or LaL in a matchup?"

Rachel Alexandra- RA
Big Brown- BB
Any Given Saturday- AGS
Bluegrass Cat- BC
Roman Ruler- tossup
Lion Heart- LH
Peace Rules- PR
War Emblem- WE
Point Given- PG
Dixie Union- DU
Menifee- Menifee
Coronado's Quest- CQ
Touch Gold- TG
Skip Away- SA
Serena's Song- SS
Holy Bull- HB
Kissin Kris- KK
Technology- tossup
Lost Mountain- tossup
Restless Con- LaL
King Glorious- KG
Forty Niner- FN
Bet Twice- BT

So I came up with 3 tossups, 1 yes, and 19 no's. I'd like to know where you disagree with my assessment (if any.) It's an interesting comparison if nothing else.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I would probably rank him a little below average on that list but I certainly wouldn't rank him last.

His performance today surprised me. I thought he was the horse to beat but I thought it was a competitive field. I thought he deserved to be the favorite but I thought he should have been the 5-2 favorite, not the 6-5 favorite. I was totally wrong. He blew them away. He won like a 6-5 shot.

Agree with this.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Even though Kissin Kris ran a fast figure in victory in the Haskell and was 3rd in the BC Classic later in the year ... I would certainly take Lookin At Lucky over him.

Even though Bluegrass Cat won the Haskell by 7 lengths and ran a slightly faster fig than LAL - I'd take LAL.

The rest of your list I agree with back to Technology and Lost Mountain - I'd need to review them.

[parsixfarms]

In light of how easily he won yesterday (and with Drosselmeyer out and Super Saver's Derby looking more like a mud/Churchill-influenced fluke), Lookin at Lucky has a huge leg up on championship honors now. I'd be really surprised if he ended up running in the Travers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He could lose the Travers and he'd still have a leg up.

It's a very important 3yo race - and it's getting to the time of year when those 3yo opportunities start to vanish.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In light of how easily he won yesterday (and with Drosselmeyer out and Super Saver's Derby looking more like a mud/Churchill-influenced fluke), Lookin at Lucky has a huge leg up on championship honors now. I'd be really surprised if he ended up running in the Travers.

I totally disagree. He seems to be much the best as far as the 3 year olds go. So why not run in and dominate races like the Haskell and Travers? I don't think people are benching horses because they might already have Eclipse Awards locked up. Some owners actually like running their horses in different races/spots (especially if they are much the best) as opposed to trying to run out the clock for the end of the year awards.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I totally disagree. He seems to be much the best as far as the 3 year olds go. So why not run in and dominate races like the Haskell and Travers? I don't think people are benching horses because they might already have Eclipse Awards locked up. Some owners actually like running their horses in different races/spots (especially if they are much the best) as opposed to trying to run out the clock for the end of the year awards.

I'm not suggesting that I think he should bypass the Travers; I was just stating that I think he will bypass the Travers. He's a California-based horse, and given the weakness of the divisions out west, he could still run in races like the Pacific Classic and Goodwood before the Breeders' Cup without "running out the clock."

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not suggesting that I think he should bypass the Travers; I was just stating that I think he will bypass the Travers. He's a California-based horse, and given the weakness of the divisions out west, he could still run in races like the Pacific Classic and Goodwood before the Breeders' Cup without "running out the clock."

Baffert mentioned several times how he thought the LAL was a better "dirt" horse. Also how Baffert prefers a track with a real dirt surface. So I actually think he will be staying East. Whether or not he runs in the Travers is still up in the air. I personally think he will.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What in the hell was Bravo doing on Afleet Again? Obviously he would say he was riding to win with no regard to where he might finish .. but if he doesn't make an insanely pre-mature move that forces him 6 wide the entire way around the far turn .. he's 2nd in the Haskell and picks up 200K.

The great figure maker 'PG wanted to give a very poorly ridden Afleet Again a 105 Beyer and the so-so 4yo Omniescent a 115.



Amazing that he was in front of a promising sprinter like Trappe Shot on the turn.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Baffert mentioned several times how he thought the LAL was a better "dirt" horse. Also how Baffert prefers a track with a real dirt surface. So I actually think he will be staying East. Whether or not he runs in the Travers is still up in the air. I personally think he will.

If Bob skips the Travers, I will be really upset with him and I will have to voice my opinion on FB to him.

[Sightseek]

So now we know the LOCKS to win a race almost a month from now and three months from now, how about talking about the big race that is actually taking place this week?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So now we know the LOCKS to win a race almost a month from now and three months from now, how about talking about the big race that is actually taking place this week?

Nicole, I will talk any race with you... What race do you want to talk about?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Nicole, I will talk any race with you... What race do you want to talk about?

The Whitney!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

The Whitney!

Nothing to talk about, you know that. QR cant lose. I dont know how you bet, but if KMac runs that Redding horse I would think tossing Blame for second is the way to make money. Blame is ok, but slow. Hes just slow, and maybe someone can outrun him and make a $20 plus exacta, rather then the $8 QR-Blame will pay.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Nothing to talk about, you know that. QR cant lose. I dont know how you bet, but if KMac runs that Redding horse I would think tossing Blame for second is the way to make money. Blame is ok, but slow. Hes just slow, and maybe someone can outrun him and make a $20 plus exacta, rather then the $8 QR-Blame will pay.

I can really see Kiaran saying something like "it's too much to ask of his horse at this time" and point for the Woodward. Dutrow has already ducked. It's too bad Lukas got Mine That Bird and not a good horse since he doesn't duck.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by philcski

No, my critical ranking was not based solely on the Beyer numbers assigned. Let's look at this critically- of the 3yo restricted races, the Haskell would rank 4th behind the Derby, Preakness, and Travers for races "I want to win" (given that the Belmont has become somewhat irrelevant in a non-TC year). It's a serious and important race in the landscape of 3yo racing and a race I happen to love. They draw really good/great fields and important horses, benchmark types. I looked at each of the horses and said "do I want them or LaL in a matchup?"

Rachel Alexandra- RA
Big Brown- BB
Any Given Saturday- AGS
Bluegrass Cat- BC
Roman Ruler- tossup LAL
Lion Heart- LH
Peace Rules- PR
War Emblem- WE Tossup
Point Given- PG
Dixie Union- DU LAL
Menifee- Menifee LAL
Coronado's Quest- CQ
Touch Gold- TG
Skip Away- SA
Serena's Song- SS
Holy Bull- HB
Kissin Kris- KK LAL
Technology- tossup LAL
Lost Mountain- tossup LAL
Restless Con- LaL
King Glorious- KG
Forty Niner- FN
Bet Twice- BT

So I came up with 3 tossups, 1 yes, and 19 no's. I'd like to know where you disagree with my assessment (if any.) It's an interesting comparison if nothing else.

Up to and including the Haskell the ones in bold would differ from your list.

I stopped reading after the first 20 posts.

Dude.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Up to and including the Haskell the ones in bold would differ from your list.

Better than Menifee and Dixie Union? You must be a huge fan of horses who consistantly beat absolutely garbage fields in time no faster than freaking Omniescent.

War Emblem never finished 2nd or 3rd - he'd stop on a dime or run a hole in the wind .. the kind of horse you always play against underneath in exotics if you don't like him .. but he'd breeze in-hand against LAL.

Menifee was just plain better than LAL. He actually faced real horses and ran several better races.

Dixie Union would beat the ever loving piss out of LAL. Dixie Union was an awesome horse who would be hailed as a super horse in this crop. He beat both Caller One and Swept Overboard twice sprinting. When he won the Haskell - the very good Captain Steve was 2nd, future two-time Santa Anita Handicap winner Milwaukee Brew was 3rd and More Than Ready was 4th. The start before the Haskell he was beaten just a neck by Tiznow and had to give Tiznow 11lbs. He had a 112 Beyer sprinting and a 111 Beyer at 9fs and he faced absolutely amazing competition.

Roman Ruler was nothing special - and I rated him a toss-up with LAL - but he was a very good 2yo sprinter and he beat an ok horse in Flower Alley in the Dwyer and was a good 2nd to the older Rock Hard Ten in the final start of his career.

Here's who finished 2nd to LAL in his Grade 1 wins. Make Music For Me (1-for-10 lifetime), Pulsion (1-for-9 lifetime - most recently 5th in an N1X) Noble's Promise (winless in his last 6 starts) First Dude (1-for-9 lifetime) and Trappe Shot (tough trip horse finally making his graded stakes debut)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

* LAL



* MENIFEE



* WAR EMBLEM



* ROMAN RULER

[RockHardTen1985]

So its all about beyers right? L@L was won 5 G1's second by a head in another and won 2 G2's. Champion 2yr old, but these other horses are faster and better, because the beyers are higher? THanks for clearing it up DOug.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

So its all about beyers right? L@L was won 5 G1's second by a head in another and won 2 G2's. Champion 2yr old, but these other horses are faster and better, because the beyers are higher? THanks for clearing it up DOug.

By your logic, Lookin at Lucky blows Quality Road off the track. It's all about Grade I's and Eclipses, right?