Look Out, Quality Road

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'd take St. Trinians over Gio Ponti.

I think I agree with you, I was just letting you know. If they dont change there minds now and run Z in the Pacific Classic, I really wont care anymore, it would be totally crazy not to let her beat up on Awesome Gem and Gio Ponti.

[the_fat_man]

Can't wait for those 2 to hook up going 10F.

27 minutes to post at PID. Let's get some LIVE play going.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Can't wait for those 2 to hook up going 10F.

Why? Do you actually believe Raip Trip is even competition? Quality Road is truly the highest mountain, maybe Dick can run them as an entry, Rail Trip and I Want Revenge, Rail Trip being the rabbit for the big horse.

[NTamm1215]

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer, it'd be unlikely that you'd get much of a price on her anywhere in Southern California in any race.

That being said, I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer,

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.





Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

Doug, I could not have said it better myself. If they meet in the Pacific Classic and Gio Ponti is in the 6-5 range, my money would be on St. Trinians. Nick just does not appreciate her greatness.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Per an old chart I have, I show GP running 61 feet MORE than Madeo (5 path 2nd turn to that one's 2 path). You think that accounts for the 1/2 length beat? That'd turn the tables on just about any horse on that course.

I had it at 58.5 feet

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.





Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.

As far as my characterization of St. Trinians, that was really more of a compliment than anything else. I thought she ran a terrific race against Z, I've never said anything to the contrary.

The Del Mar Derby that Gio Ponti lost to Madeo in was certainly one of his disappointing efforts, he was 9-10 to win the race. Madeo benefited from an absolutely perfect trip and GP was also victimized by an overconfident ride from Garrett Gomez. I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).

Gio Ponti ran a good race in the Dubai World Cup to finish fourth rallying into that viciously slow pace. His Strub was more of an aberration than anything else because he certainly ran well in the Sir Beaufort and BCC. I mean, Doug, after all, you and I have been told here dozens of times that that was like the greatest Classic field ever.

As far as me including Del Mar, that really was inconsequential. Obviously neither have started at Del Mar so it'd be impossible to determine who has any type of edge there. If St. Trinians were to come out and run a huge race again vs. Zenyatta then clearly you would think that she'd have an edge on Gio Ponti.

The thing to me about St. Trinians is that I don't really see her becoming considerably better at ten furlongs and her likely getting a little weary late. Could there be circumstances that lead to her getting the distance without a problem? Sure, but I would be more inclined to think GP's two best synthetic races are as good, if not better than any of St. Trinians prior races (or 1 and 1) and that he'd have an edge at the distance.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I was mostly just needling you. You typically have a good take but are skilled at spoiling the take with inconsequential silliness.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that 2009, for the most part, made it clear that Gio Ponti was a different animal at 4 than he was at 3. After all, he was subsequently beaten twice by Court Vision (with the HOL Derby being circumstancial).



NT

He had a whole bunch of bad rides/luck as a three year old. Then they took Gomez off and GP started getting good luck, and Ventura (in the race she lost to GP, among others) started getting some of that bad (GG) luck.

You sound like the connections of Tasty Temptation with that comment. After she won her last race, easily handling Milwaukee Appeal, her nemesis of last year, Casse says something to the effect "she better this year" and the owners echoed it. No she's not, dumbasses, she's just not getting that widest no cover move too early move from Husbands -- so far.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why? Do you actually believe Raip Trip is even competition? Quality Road is truly the highest mountain, maybe Dick can run them as an entry, Rail Trip and I Want Revenge, Rail Trip being the rabbit for the big horse.

I have no idea how Rail Trip will run on dirt. Nor do I really think that much of him, though I know his was poorly ridden in a few of his races. It still needs to be proven to me that QR can get 10F against a 'competitive' field. He needs to do a lot more going 10F, in terms of how he runs, then he does at a shorter distance and I think he's vulnerable to a good horse.

It's interesting that the horse once thought to be a MILER is now 'accepted' as being able to get 10F, RT, and the horse that has yet to prove it can get 10F is now 'accepted' as being able to do so.

[blackthroatedwind]

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

I have said for a while now that the QR not being able to get 10f is really not an argument at all. People love to hate this horse, he was a horse for the Gulfstream course even though he had won at Aqueduct, Saratoga and ran huge at Belmont. How do you run a 110 beyer, vs the champion 3yr old going 10f if you cant get 10f?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have said for a while now that the QR not being able to get 10f is really not an argument at all. People love to hate this horse, he was a horse for the Gulfstream course even though he had won at Aqueduct, Saratoga and ran huge at Belmont. How do you run a 110 beyer, vs the champion 3yr old going 10f if you cant get 10f?

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

So much for DrugS golden rail @ PID in the 1st -- the wipe-out horse blows by the rail running 2, who I bet.

I'm not twisting dynamics. I'm using dynamics to make a very strong case against the horse going 10F. He has the natural speed to control a race going up to 8F or so -- 9 at GP (or other speed favoring tracks). In other words, he's fast/good enough to not only set the pace (or chase a fast one) but also to repel any bids, whether early or late -- though, most recently, these came in the form of a premature move by a sprinter and a late run by, essentially, a plug; and he didn't exactly beat anything good down at GP. But I digress. Anyway, he has yet to show this same ability going 10F. I realize that Summer Bird, highly regarded by so many here, beat him both times last year but these were both races with a minimal number of moves. Doubtful we get a similar scenario in the CLASSIC, where, hopefully, there'll be a large field and, thus, plenty of chances for plenty of IDIOT moves. And, JV is not exactly the type that will put him INSIDE and wait patiently to make a final run. Know what I mean? Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not an unfair argument, but are you saying he isn't the best horse ( even at the distance ) or his superiority isn't enough to overcome a likely difficult dynamic?

Given the likelihood now of Rail Trip running in either ( or both ) the Whitney and Woodward, and given that Dutrow also understands the value of speed, as well as his main opponent's strongsuits, shouldn't you also now consider him vulnerable at 1 1/8 as well. I'm not saying Rail Trip is as good as Quality Road, but he is of obvious quality, and he could present the obstacle that didn't exist in the races you mentioned, and soften him up for others.

I think that your main problem isn't so much the distance, though obviously his possible achilles heel could be exposed the farther they go, but that you feel he has been able to dictate races. That could change...and on a very fair racetrack.

[johnny pinwheel]

[quote=the_fat_man;668693 Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.[/QUOTE]

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

all salient points, made before by me and others...and fell on deaf ears. but maybe you can get somewhere with it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

all salient points, made before by me and others...and fell on deaf ears. but maybe you can get somewhere with it.

It's sometimes a question of whom you address.