Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

Originally Posted by oracle80

How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.

One could argue that the Oaks is suspect since Lemons Forever has been pretty much a no show the rest of the year.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

One could argue that the Oaks is suspect since Lemons Forever has been pretty much a no show the rest of the year.

She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!

Originally Posted by oracle80

She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!

Go back and watch that race. Lemons Forever was closing very very fast at Turfway. It was a prep for the Oaks and the trainer didnt even have her cranked 100%. Her 3rd place performance at Turfway was a great prep to the Oaks. And since I got to see that race, saw how she worked, saw how pathetic the top horses in the Oaks looked---I benefited from a 40-1 shot winning.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Go back and watch that race. Lemons Forever was closing very very fast at Turfway. It was a prep for the Oaks and the trainer didnt even have her cranked 100%. Her 3rd place performance at Turfway was a great prep to the Oaks. And since I got to see that race, saw how she worked, saw how pathetic the top horses in the Oaks looked---I benefited from a 40-1 shot winning.

Believe me that guy wanted to win that race at Turfway, it's not like he knew that horse was going to win the Oaks, he probably was surprised as anyone...

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Go back and watch that race. Lemons Forever was closing very very fast at Turfway. It was a prep for the Oaks and the trainer didnt even have her cranked 100%. Her 3rd place performance at Turfway was a great prep to the Oaks. And since I got to see that race, saw how she worked, saw how pathetic the top horses in the Oaks looked---I benefited from a 40-1 shot winning.

Funny that those pathetic horses have accounted for 5 grade one wins since then huh?
WRONG. If anything the pace and tough trips accounted for her winning, and I agree that it was fluky.
But you are lying to yourself if you think she was closing at TP. I saw her that day, and she was even paced and inder a drive for a half mile and could make up no ground. If you wanna make a little bet on this I'd be happy to.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Funny that those pathetic horses have accounted for 5 grade one wins since then huh?
WRONG. If anything the pace and tough trips accounted for her winning, and I agree that it was fluky.
But you are lying to yourself if you think she was closing at TP. I saw her that day, and she was even paced and inder a drive for a half mile and could make up no ground. If you wanna make a little bet on this I'd be happy to.

You were at Turfway the day she finished 3rd. That is funny because I was there too. Here is the chart comment from her race. "Bumped foe, nice outside advance for third, one length behind Top Notch Lady" Notice--NICE OUTSIDE ADVANCE FOR THIRD.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You were at Turfway the day she finished 3rd. That is funny because I was there too. Here is the chart comment from her race. "Bumped foe, nice outside advance for third, one length behind Top Notch Lady" Notice--NICE OUTSIDE ADVANCE FOR THIRD.

I said I saw her, they showed the race on Tv.
She was under a hard drive for a half mile and spinning her wheels, and got beat by two dregs.
WHich part of that do you deny?

Originally Posted by oracle80

I said I saw her, they showed the race on Tv.
She was under a hard drive for a half mile and spinning her wheels, and got beat by two dregs.
WHich part of that do you deny?

I am not denying anything. I am saying she had a nice close to get third. She wasnt spinning her wheels at all. She looped along and then found her best stride and closed nicely for third. Funny she was 8th behind about 6 lengths at the half pole. Then she closed nicely to miss by 1 length. Hmmmm...doesnt sound like she was spinning her wheels that day at all.

We're gonna need Pgardn as well on this Company and I wanna hire him as head of technology.
Pgardn, get back to us asap. We need you to draw up nifty little sketches of how the surface is layed down, what it is, the scientific makeup down to the molecule of both the pillows(pillowcases also), and the feathers.
Then we need you to write up the scientific data as it applies to pressure per square inch and resiliency. Lots of charts and data and figures that noone will understand and is too complicated for them to verify because most folks won't have any idea what you are talking about. And what people don't understand they often label as brilliance instead of bull****. Its a fact.
Now Pgardn, this is your ticket out of the high school to the big time. We'll have you on one of those big Texas ranches like J.R. lived on in Dallas, in no time.

Originally Posted by oracle80

She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!

I think i'm going to be like you and question everyone's intelligence, ya ****in prick.