Monmouth handle & attendance

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you are turning a profit at a small track, great. I bet small tracks all the time. However, even the small tracks have bigger pools than PID. Nobody can make any real money over time there, because there is none in the pools. Stevie Wonder can see that. It doesn't mean DrugS isn't a good handicapper, not even close. I could show a monstrous ROI on paper on races here in Oklahoma on at Will Rogers Downs and Fair Meadows, but that is a far cry from winning real money.

As for the penis jokes, maybe you guys could PM each other pictures of each others cocks and have a grand old time. Personally, I think it is pretty childish and I can't believe Steve allows it. It ruins a lot of threads around here.

Your logic is so backwards. If you could show a monstrous ROI on paper at WRD or FMT, WHY AREN'T YOU DOING IT THEN?!??!? If you could make $300 a day "virtually guaranteed" there then ****, go do it. If anything, making a flat win bet profit on a small handle track 24 hours ahead of time is even HARDER because it is more difficult to project closing odds since one moderate bet can move the prices significantly.

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That sucks. I thought I was doing good by turning a profit at the track I play, but I guess not. No "serious players are wagering there", the "pools are non-existent" and nobody gives a damn about the place.

****. I'd better get cracking on 'capping bigger tracks.

I thought DrugS was serious about his penis and jerking off, thanks for clearing up the fact that he is only joking.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Your logic is so backwards. If you could show a monstrous ROI on paper at WRD or FMT, WHY AREN'T YOU DOING IT THEN?!??!? If you could make $300 a day "virtually guaranteed" there then ****, go do it. If anything, making a flat win bet profit on a small handle track 24 hours ahead of time is even HARDER because it is more difficult to project closing odds since one moderate bet can move the prices significantly.

If you have to ask the question, WHY AREN'T YOU DOING IT THEN?!??!?, then you really don't understand the betting side of the game. Are you even familiar, a little, with the pool sizes of the tracks I mention? If I posted selections in the paper every day for those tracks it is a guarantee I would show a + ROI. If I bet as much as $40 on those selections with real money, it would probably turn to a negative ROI, or at the very least shrink considerably.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you have to ask the question, WHY AREN'T YOU DOING IT THEN?!??!?, then you really don't understand the betting side of the game. Are you even familiar, a little, with the pool sizes of the tracks I mention? If I posted selections in the paper every day for those tracks it is a guarantee I would show a + ROI. If I bet as much as $40 on those selections with real money, it would probably turn to a negative ROI, or at the very least shrink considerably.

I'm not up on handle for these smaller tracks, though I do bet PID. Not one of my 'must' tracks, however.

I looked at handle for 3 days:

Date Attendance On Track Handle Off Track Handle
7/01 518 $28,509 $620,747
7/02 823 $38,754 $280,170
7/03 1045 $46,255 $156,972 (why is this so low?)


I'm too lazy to compare these to other smaller tracks. But it appears that it would take more than $40 wagers to turn a profit into a loss. Of course, there are incredible odds swings at this track.

Not to imply that I disgree with your overall premise.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm not up on handle for these smaller tracks, though I do bet PID. Not one of my 'must' tracks, however.

I looked at handle for 3 days:

Date Attendance On Track Handle Off Track Handle
7/01 518 $28,509 $620,747
7/02 823 $38,754 $280,170
7/03 1045 $46,255 $156,972 (why is this so low?)


I'm too lazy to compare these to other smaller tracks. But it appears that it would take more than $40 wagers to turn a profit into a loss. Of course, there are incredible odds swings at this track.

Not to imply that I disgree with your overall premise.

I don't really have the time or inclination to do the math, but the win pools are just a fraction of the overall handle. My point is that it is easier to do because the competition is very weak. There is no point in a big player trying to make serious money at these tracks. To devote a large amount of time to a small track like PID or WRD or LNN makes no sense.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

My point is that it is easier to do because the competition is very weak. There is no point in a big player trying to make serious money at these tracks. To devote a large amount of time to a small track like PID or WRD or LNN makes no sense.

I agree with your overall premise. I don't buy the competition thing because a strong player should be able to win in just about any environment, and, from experience, PID is not an easy track to beat. Doesn't mean it's hard, either, just that it's 'nuanced' and take a bit of getting used to. My point is that playing a single track, whether large or small, is a dated way of going about it. While some might think that 80 hour weeks spent watching replays and keeping notes (and doing a bunch of other things) is the way to win at the game, I think this is just too much grunt work. Playing a handful of races, at best, a day is not keeping up with the times. I was reading over at your forum where someone wrote that before you can beat multiple tracks you need to be able to beat a single track. This is ridiculously banal but what's lost in this is that it's a lot easier to beat a single track than it is to beat multiple tracks.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I agree with your overall premise. I don't buy the competition thing because a strong player should be able to win in just about any environment, and, from experience, PID is not an easy track to beat. Doesn't mean it's hard, either, just that it's 'nuanced' and take a bit of getting used to. My point is that playing a single track, whether large or small, is a dated way of going about it. While some might think that 80 hour weeks spent watching replays and keeping notes (and doing a bunch of other things) is the way to win at the game, I think this is just too much grunt work. Playing a handful of races, at best, a day is not keeping up with the times. I was reading over at your forum where someone wrote that before you can beat multiple tracks you need to be able to beat a single track. This is ridiculously banal but what's lost in this is that it's a lot easier to beat a single track than it is to beat multiple tracks.

I think we agree, but I'm not sure you see the big picture of my argument. There is no point putting in time at those places, not the kind of time required to watch replays and such. Sure, a good player can win, but there is a line where the time involved isn't worth the effort.

A +5% ROI in SoCal or NYRA is on much more solid ground than a 20% ROI at PID or PNL. Because big bettors know this, and by and large big bettors are probably better bettors, they aren't going to waste a lot of effort on these smaller places. Thus, the competition is easier. People can argue theories and what ifs all they want, I have studied and bet the pools at most tracks in the US for nearly a decade.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

A +5% ROI in SoCal or NYRA is on much more solid ground than a 20% ROI at PID or PNL. Because big bettors know this, and by and large big bettors are probably better bettors, they aren't going to waste a lot of effort on these smaller places. Thus, the competition is easier. People can argue theories and what ifs all they want, I have studied and bet the pools at most tracks in the US for nearly a decade.

I don't agree with some of this.

PID would be utterly impossible to beat - at 800 races a meet - for anyone if not for the simple fact that - in all 4 meets so far - some pretty powerful and very legit track biases have lingered on for an extended period of time.

It's also a lot better place than most for people who study trainers intently - and it's also a track that runs it's fair share of 2yo maiden races - and you get a lot of debuters in the 3yo maiden races as well ... which, in terms of having to make selections 24 hour out ... would favor me over others I believe. You don't see a lot of public handicappers pick debuters 10/1 on the ML on top .. and in a lot of cases here, those prove to be very bad ML's and those end up being the right horses.

I've had many of my best days betting on the biggest racing days of the year. Breeders Cup Day, Derby day, etc. I've had some of my best meets at Saratoga and AQU Inner. Belmont Spring is the only NYRA meet where I'd been raped and pillaged on more than one occasion.

Bottom line - if PID is a fair racetrack ... your avg good handicapper is dealing with an extremely unattractive situation. Small fields, a lot of uncompetitive races, a lot of maiden races with debuters, Ness running straight down peoples throats. etc.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

To devote a large amount of time to a small track like PID or WRD or LNN makes no sense.

There are other places that receive a LNN signal?

[richard]

My guess why the 7/3 handle is low is because the smaller tracks face fierce Saturday competition from all the other tracks open Sat. I think FL biggest day is Mon ., for instance.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you have to ask the question, WHY AREN'T YOU DOING IT THEN?!??!?, then you really don't understand the betting side of the game. Are you even familiar, a little, with the pool sizes of the tracks I mention? If I posted selections in the paper every day for those tracks it is a guarantee I would show a + ROI. If I bet as much as $40 on those selections with real money, it would probably turn to a negative ROI, or at the very least shrink considerably.

Saying I don't understand the betting aspect of the game is pretty LOL funny.

I am very familiar with the pool sizes of PID. Let's do a little exercise here: The last race run had a mutuel pool of $14,219. For argument's sake let's say 50% of that was the win pool ($7,109) and takeout at PID on WPS is 17% ($5,901). The winner went off at 4.4-1, which means he had $1,093 on him to win. Add in your $40 bet ($33 after takeout) to the pool and on the winner and your $10.80 winner drops to $10.60 or $10.40, depending on breakage. That's either -1.8% or -3.6% on a common-priced winner, far from enough to crush your suggested +20% ROI.

FYI, for a $40 bet to depress the odds enough to eradicate a 20% the horse would have to pay over $74. I can guarantee to you anyone betting horses at PID at 36-1 has a permanent bed in the poor house.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Saying I don't understand the betting aspect of the game is pretty LOL funny.

I am very familiar with the pool sizes of PID. Let's do a little exercise here: The last race run had a mutuel pool of $14,219. For argument's sake let's say 50% of that was the win pool ($7,109) and takeout at PID on WPS is 17% ($5,901). The winner went off at 4.4-1, which means he had $1,093 on him to win. Add in your $40 bet ($33 after takeout) to the pool and on the winner and your $10.80 winner drops to $10.60 or $10.40, depending on breakage. That's either -1.8% or -3.6% on a common-priced winner, far from enough to crush your suggested +20% ROI.

FYI, for a $40 bet to depress the odds enough to eradicate a 20% the horse would have to pay over $74. I can guarantee to you anyone betting horses at PID at 36-1 has a permanent bed in the poor house.

How much do you know about betting that you are trying to fool us into thinking 50% of the action is in the win pool?

25% is fair....at best. Suddenly a $40 bet drops the price as much as 60 cents.

But, you have to realize this isn't the entire point. The other part of the point is that the betting crowd isn't sophisticated, which leads to relative overlays, so while in theory you can say this would make it easier to make money, there are still two problems here. One, as was already stated, even minor bets significantly change the prices....and two, the paper ROI is rendered meaningless by both the first reason and the second that there is no sophisticated money in the pools. Both factors that inflate the paper ROI would significantly deflate it in the real world.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How much do you know about betting that you are trying to fool us into thinking 50% of the action is in the win pool?

25% is fair....at best. Suddenly a $40 bet drops the price as much as 60 cents.

But, you have to realize this isn't the entire point. The other part of the point is that the betting crowd isn't sophisticated, which leads to relative overlays, so while in theory you can say this would make it easier to make money, there are still two problems here. One, as was already stated, even minor bets significantly change the prices....and two, the paper ROI is rendered meaningless by both the first reason and the second that there is no sophisticated money in the pools. Both factors that inflate the paper ROI would significantly deflate it in the real world.

The win pool is only 25% of the MUTUEL pool? At what track?!? And you're calling ME out on this??? 50% is probably conservative at a track like PID where the place and show pools are nonexistent! Here is the chart for the last race at PID: http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8

"Sophisticated money" has no bearing on the analysis. The money in the pools is what it is. Where it comes from, either in location or knowledge, is irrelevant once the gates open and the prices are finalized.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The win pool is only 25% of the MUTUEL pool? At what track?!? And you're calling ME out on this??? 50% is probably conservative at a track like PID where the place and show pools are nonexistent! Here is the chart for the last race at PID: http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8

"Sophisticated money" has no bearing on the analysis. The money in the pools is what it is. Where it comes from, either in location or knowledge, is irrelevant once the gates open and the prices are finalized.

Our WPS are 33%...which makes 25% a generous estimate. I will look into what they are at smaller tracks. Perhaps you are right but I'm dubious.

However, the second paragraph just shows you aren't thinking this through.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not a real life example, per se, and this is a very " real life " game.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Did anyone notice all the brilliantly sophisticated money in the pool for the 10th at Churchill Downs yesterday?

Those razor sharpies made Mine That Bird a 5/2 favorite in a 14 horse field... off a layoff and on turf.

What's crazy about PID .. is how much the Euro's seem to love it. On Betfair, I've seen extremely shockingly high liquidty on both sides of each horse - for each horse in the race... in certain races where form is established.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Our WPS are 33%...which makes 25% a generous estimate. I will look into what they are at smaller tracks. Perhaps you are right but I'm dubious.

However, the second paragraph just shows you aren't thinking this through.

You are not following what I'm saying.

The MUTUEL pool total, the number I quoted, is the sum of WPS- you are thinking of a percentage of TOTAL handle (which as you stated at NYRA and most other places is about 33% of total handle). WPS wagering % of the MUTUEL pool is not distributed 33% Win, 33% Place, 33% Show. It's much closer to 50% Win, 25% Place, 25% Show (if not a higher bias towards Win in smaller jurisdictions) barring a bridgejumper getting involved.

My point stands that a $40 bet does not impact the pool materially enough to move a +20% ROI to negative.

If I'm not thinking this through enough... explain to me how "sophisticated money" has any bearing on a finalized pool with final prices. If higher quality bettors starting punting PID, yes it likely be tougher to win there. But they aren't, and they won't be. And that's assuming that everybody that bets PID is a complete moron who can barely read a form.