Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

Sure, I'll bet $1 against $10 that Ball Four finishes ahead of him. Ball Four doesn't stand a chance in hell in winning the Clark but he certainly has better than a 1 in 10 shot of finishing ahead of Premium Tap.

[blackthroatedwind]

Hey, I'm reticent to bet Polytrack, but using an example of a 2YO filly winning a weak race where nobody had run many races is hardly strong.

I did handicap the other stakes thoroughly and the sprint winner was hardly impossible, the race was wide open, and the two supposedly good Polytrack horses did nothing. I preferred the second horse and had Desormeaux not butchered him, check out that ride, he would have won. The Distaff race was won by a hard horse but only because of the distance and I have a hard time buying Polytrack caused a horse to win at 1 1/16th that appears to barely want 7F. It's not as though she was carried along on the front end. Her numbers were easily good enough to win it was really just a distance question. The second finisher, La Reason, was to me the most logical horse and she performed pretty much the same on polytrack as she does on dirt ( i.e. once again not quite good enough to win ). The 2YO colt race was a total crapshoot and the winner exited a prep where an argument could have been made that he performed best that day and only Saturday's post hindered him. In other words there was really no particularly logical result in that race.

What I'm basically saying is that in order to dismiss polytrack as unplayable, and believe me I'm as skeptical as anyone, we should at least watch this Keeneland meet seriously. And I don't want to hear any of that " oh, God, there's a 7500 claimer in the second race on opening day! " because I would bet a lot of money they are using pretty much the same book they use every year. This is Keeneland in the Fall, not the Spring, and yes they run claimers at Keeneland all the time....even cheap ones. Let's keep our eye on the ball and certainly not use polytrack as yet another reason we just can't win.

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

I'll call at lunch, it's local for me...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I'll call at lunch, it's local for me...

Yeah just tell them you want the meet figures on handle before they release them to the public and shareholders. If he asks who you are just tell em a casual race fan with an interest in it. Lemme know how it goes. This shouldn't be any problem whatsoever as Euro was given the info on opening day handle and posted how much it was up before it was given to the public or listed on equibase, etc.
I'm sure they just give that info out to anyone.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

Again, I dont have a vested interest. I dont know how I can make that any clearer. I was a tires salesmen, a tire store owner and soon a college student again. I no zero interest in investing my money in something that I dont know much about. That isnt good business.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Again, I dont have a vested interest. I dont know how I can make that any clearer. I was a tires salesmen, a tire store owner and soon a college student again. I no zero interest in investing my money in something that I dont know much about. That isnt good business.

Ok, assuming thats true, why the cheerleading and shilling for tracks and a surface that you have no vested interest in?

Originally Posted by oracle80

Ok, assuming thats true, why the cheerleading and shilling for tracks and a surface that you have no vested interest in?

I also cheer for Saratoga, Belmont and I wager most of my dollars in Cali tracks. I have been touting Oct 7th as the best day of racing for almost two months and I also boost how great of a card Belmont has that day.