Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.

Smart Azz!

Have you noticed if a lot of the horses that have been doing well have turfy pedigrees?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Smart Azz!

Have you noticed if a lot of the horses that have been doing well have turfy pedigrees?

Yeah I've noticed that as well as every trainer noticing it.
You have to understand that this stuff was conceived by Euros who were trying to come up with a surface for tbreds to train on in the winter months over there. And what do all of their tbreds run on? Why turf of course. They were looking for an artifical surface that could simulate grass to train on. Its not very shocking that turf horses like it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

I assume the Beyers must have painted a different story considering the odds but on the equibase figures Ball Four looked very competitive in that field.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I assume the Beyers must have painted a different story considering the odds but on the equibase figures Ball Four looked very competitive in that field.

Yeah i always love middle echelon horses taking on horses who have on or placed in Grade Ones this year, especially when they figure to have to duel outside a horse coming off a grade one win at the Spa who has drawn the rail.
He could only be used off the the fact that he had won and placed in his two poly starts.
Are you honestly telling me that Ball Four cold beat Premium Tap on any dirt surface in America?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah i always love middle echelon horses taking on horses who have on or placed in Grade Ones this year, especially when they figure to have to duel outside a horse coming off a grade one win at the Spa who has drawn the rail.
He could only be used off the the fact that he had won and placed in his two poly starts.
Are you honestly telling me that Ball Four cold beat Premium Tap on any dirt surface in America?

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

Sure, I'll bet $1 against $10 that Ball Four finishes ahead of him. Ball Four doesn't stand a chance in hell in winning the Clark but he certainly has better than a 1 in 10 shot of finishing ahead of Premium Tap.

[blackthroatedwind]

Hey, I'm reticent to bet Polytrack, but using an example of a 2YO filly winning a weak race where nobody had run many races is hardly strong.

I did handicap the other stakes thoroughly and the sprint winner was hardly impossible, the race was wide open, and the two supposedly good Polytrack horses did nothing. I preferred the second horse and had Desormeaux not butchered him, check out that ride, he would have won. The Distaff race was won by a hard horse but only because of the distance and I have a hard time buying Polytrack caused a horse to win at 1 1/16th that appears to barely want 7F. It's not as though she was carried along on the front end. Her numbers were easily good enough to win it was really just a distance question. The second finisher, La Reason, was to me the most logical horse and she performed pretty much the same on polytrack as she does on dirt ( i.e. once again not quite good enough to win ). The 2YO colt race was a total crapshoot and the winner exited a prep where an argument could have been made that he performed best that day and only Saturday's post hindered him. In other words there was really no particularly logical result in that race.

What I'm basically saying is that in order to dismiss polytrack as unplayable, and believe me I'm as skeptical as anyone, we should at least watch this Keeneland meet seriously. And I don't want to hear any of that " oh, God, there's a 7500 claimer in the second race on opening day! " because I would bet a lot of money they are using pretty much the same book they use every year. This is Keeneland in the Fall, not the Spring, and yes they run claimers at Keeneland all the time....even cheap ones. Let's keep our eye on the ball and certainly not use polytrack as yet another reason we just can't win.

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

Hey no need for rational thinking in handicapping. Shame on you for not picking a dead chalk who went off as a bomb in his last race. It's obvious New York racing is better than any racing in the world. Hell a 40k claimer at Toga should win all of the grade 1's at Keeneland. Hail Saratoga east coast bias!!