Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

My horse had the same problem SHOW JUMPING on the stuff. For some reason, he would slip very easily if the surface wasn't dragged on a regular basis, where as he never had that kind of problem on grass or clay.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

My horse had the same problem SHOW JUMPING on the stuff. For some reason, he would slip very easily if the surface wasn't dragged on a regular basis, where as he never had that kind of problem on grass or clay.

Funny that you mention it Cajun!! Many seem to slip at the start and crash the gate, I've never seen anything like it. And we even had a buck jumper.
Heres some chart calls and comments from Kentucky Cup day, all verifiable at www.equibase.com under full charts section.

Race 1- Dancing Skeeanno - hopped Start

Race 4- Shot Gun Cliff- lost footing after start
Base Commander- hit gate start

Race 7- Cognac Kisses- broke in the air
Lucky Savannah- stumbled after start

Race 9- Hey Bill- hit gate start

race 10- Natalicat- buck jumped

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.

Smart Azz!

Have you noticed if a lot of the horses that have been doing well have turfy pedigrees?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Smart Azz!

Have you noticed if a lot of the horses that have been doing well have turfy pedigrees?

Yeah I've noticed that as well as every trainer noticing it.
You have to understand that this stuff was conceived by Euros who were trying to come up with a surface for tbreds to train on in the winter months over there. And what do all of their tbreds run on? Why turf of course. They were looking for an artifical surface that could simulate grass to train on. Its not very shocking that turf horses like it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

I assume the Beyers must have painted a different story considering the odds but on the equibase figures Ball Four looked very competitive in that field.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I assume the Beyers must have painted a different story considering the odds but on the equibase figures Ball Four looked very competitive in that field.

Yeah i always love middle echelon horses taking on horses who have on or placed in Grade Ones this year, especially when they figure to have to duel outside a horse coming off a grade one win at the Spa who has drawn the rail.
He could only be used off the the fact that he had won and placed in his two poly starts.
Are you honestly telling me that Ball Four cold beat Premium Tap on any dirt surface in America?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah i always love middle echelon horses taking on horses who have on or placed in Grade Ones this year, especially when they figure to have to duel outside a horse coming off a grade one win at the Spa who has drawn the rail.
He could only be used off the the fact that he had won and placed in his two poly starts.
Are you honestly telling me that Ball Four cold beat Premium Tap on any dirt surface in America?

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

I already said I didn't bet a penny on the races that day. So trying to paint me as a bitter gambler is way off base.
Tell you what Sniper. Those two ever hook up again on the dirt, and they may in the Clark, I'll give you 10-1 on Ball Four finishing ahead of him ok?
Since you said you think he'd only win 8 outta 10, that means that you think the odds of ball Four beating him are one outta 5. I'm willing to give you twice that. We on? I don't care if the bet is your one dollar vs my ten bucks just to prove a point. We on?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

Hey no need for rational thinking in handicapping. Shame on you for not picking a dead chalk who went off as a bomb in his last race. It's obvious New York racing is better than any racing in the world. Hell a 40k claimer at Toga should win all of the grade 1's at Keeneland. Hail Saratoga east coast bias!!

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

Sightseek do you really believe that Premium Tap would have been that far behind on dirt? HUH?!!!! Look at his running style Seek!! hes a very fast horse who had drawn the rail. He wasn't handling or displaying his typical speed on that surface.
Do you really believe that ball Four is within 10 lengths of those horses on the finish line on dirt?!!!!!!!!!

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

The bottomline is that he was beaten by many horses in the race...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The bottomline is that he was beaten by many horses in the race...

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

Thank you!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

Hows the example of Cohiba Miss wiring the field in the Juvenile Fillies race and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths?
Did anyone see her previous races? Are you kidding me?
Thats a textbook case of one horse handling the surface and the others just not.
If all races were run like that one, I'd quit playing the game.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Hows the example of Cohiba Miss wiring the field in the Juvenile Fillies race and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths?
Did anyone see her previous races? Are you kidding me?
Thats a textbook case of one horse handling the surface and the others just not.
If all races were run like that one, I'd quit playing the game.

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Maybe this is a stupid question, but I'm putting it out there anyway; how is that much different than a horse who is very specific to a particular dirt track?

Seek I just don't see that very often. I mean you can point to Silver Train but the fact is that he did win impressively at saratoga as a two year old.
Horses don't tend to just jump up huge on a particular dirt surface.
More importantly, while some horses will run a length or two faster at a particular track, its a much more subtle improvement and even more importantly how many horses do you see who win at say Belmont and run 90 Beyers who go to Aqueduct and run 60's or 70's? I can count those I've seen in my life on two hands, maybe one hand.
We all know about John's Call and Fourstardave loving the Spa, buts thats two horses in 20 years, and its not like they never won elsewhere.
Its not about whos moving up on it, its about how many move way down on it. Simple logic when looking at figs tells me that so many just flat out cant run on it.
Lawyer Ron couldnt get within double digits on it, lol. Lemons Forever ran 4th in a cheap stakes race on the stuff and all she did was come back and win the Ky oaks. They just wouldn't put out on it, to name just two of many.