7/3-4 (MTH): United Nations (G1), Salvator (G3); Jersey Shore (G3)

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I thought he rated fine both times at Colonial, one of those races he was 10x the best. Even though he lost, he also rated in Jamacia and is likely a much better horse now.

You do realize that Straight Story has won all of his races on the engine and that of his four victories, three have come in statebred allowance races and only the last race was open nx1.

I realize that Straight Story is certainly more talented than the above statement implies but is he ready for these just two months after losing to a horse named minipunt?

Just guessing here, but I bet at least one of those speeds scratches today. Straight Story is my guess but it wouldn't surprise me if Get Serious does as well. Neither of them really figure here unless they are on the lead and Acclimation isn't going to let that happen...easily. Just one of those scratches changes the whole pace scenario.

Chinchon had no real excuses in the man of war last year but this race isn't nearly as tough as that race was. He is getting an 8 lb weight break from his last race. He has a good shot here in my opinion.

Take the points is kind of a wise guy horse to me and no doubt that the talent is there. One of these days he will beat unrestricted company but is he really a good bet at 3-1ish?

Does anyone know anything about the Brazillian horse?

[blackthroatedwind]

Very clever of Patrick to run Christine Daae here and not the Prioress.

[Betsy]

So Castellano is off of Discreetly Mine after that wonderful ride in the Woody Stephens........Looks like DM has found a niche as a sprinter; I'm hoping he'll win this thing.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Looks like DM has found a niche as a sprinter

I'll believe it when I see it. He got dusted in the Riva Ridge just as he has in every other race of his aside from the pedestrian stroll called the Risen Star. To his detriment, he seems to have only one way of going and given what's lined up on either side of him (not to mention the outside horse), it looks to be more of the same up front today.

If there is one thing to say about him its that, ignoring the Derby, he never completely caves in, which probably accounts for his status as a quality bridesmaid.

Maybe the class drop will be the difference today, with the other pace rivals all making their graded stakes debuts. Personally, I wonder what he would have done in the Pegasus or the Long Branch or both.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'll believe it when I see it. He got dusted in the Riva Ridge just as he has in every other race of his aside from the pedestrian stroll called the Risen Star. To his detriment, he seems to have only one way of going and given what's lined up on either side of him (not to mention the outside horse), it looks to be more of the same up front today.

If there is one thing to say about him its that, ignoring the Derby, he never completely caves in, which probably accounts for his status as a quality bridesmaid.

Maybe the class drop will be the difference today, with the other pace rivals all making their graded stakes debuts. Personally, I wonder what he would have done in the Pegasus or the Long Branch or both.

Starting to look more like a sprinter to you?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Starting to look more like a sprinter to you?

Certainly, now that he finally showed the ability to rate. As was mentioned to me by multiple people, I wasn't critical enough of Javier Castellano's ride in the Woody Stephens. Since it was the second time in his career he failed to settle off a horse as fast as Eightyfiveinafifty, I won't beat myself up for thinking the horse only had one way of running.

[Kasept]

Eddie Castro takes his share of criticism, mostly deserved, but check out his good effort yesterday in the Mr. Prospector. Had to use Roaring Lion at precisely the right time to gather a loose on the lead Unwritten, and had just enough left after doing that dirty work to hold off the late-charging Wildcat Brief.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Very clever of Patrick to run Christine Daae here and not the Prioress.

I agree... I would be scared of the Baffert as well.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

You do realize that Straight Story has won all of his races on the engine and that of his four victories, three have come in statebred allowance races and only the last race was open nx1.

I realize that Straight Story is certainly more talented than the above statement implies but is he ready for these just two months after losing to a horse named minipunt?

Just guessing here, but I bet at least one of those speeds scratches today. Straight Story is my guess but it wouldn't surprise me if Get Serious does as well. Neither of them really figure here unless they are on the lead and Acclimation isn't going to let that happen...easily. Just one of those scratches changes the whole pace scenario.

Chinchon had no real excuses in the man of war last year but this race isn't nearly as tough as that race was. He is getting an 8 lb weight break from his last race. He has a good shot here in my opinion.

Take the points is kind of a wise guy horse to me and no doubt that the talent is there. One of these days he will beat unrestricted company but is he really a good bet at 3-1ish?

Does anyone know anything about the Brazillian horse?

See post #10. Besides all this, he is dropping 15 lbs from his last race, gets a 22% rider and the first time heart cocktail.
Seems a more than reasonable long shot.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Take the points is kind of a wise guy horse to me and no doubt that the talent is there. One of these days he will beat unrestricted company but is he really a good bet at 3-1ish?

HUGE against-the-grain run last out. Should be able to get a good trip and bury these today. "Should', is very relative, of course, with Prado up.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

HUGE against-the-grain run last out. Should be able to get a good trip and bury these today. "Should', is very relative, of course, with Prado up.

Ughh, what if he is just not that good in the first place? I dont like him today, he can prove me wrong, Im leaning everything on Chinchon and SS.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ughh, what if he is just not that good in the first place? I dont like him today, he can prove me wrong, Im leaning everything on Chinchon and SS.

There can't be a lot separating Take The Points and Straight Story as far as their 3yo races together are concerned, can there?

Given that Take The Points has run in nothing but top level races (and done well enough) since while Straight Story has relied on his conditions and state-bred status certainly shouldn't suggest that the latter has surpassed him with maturity.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

There can't be a lot separating Take The Points and Straight Story as far as their 3yo races together are concerned, can there?

Given that Take The Points has run in nothing but top level races (and done well enough) since while Straight Story has relied on his conditions and state-bred status certainly shouldn't suggest that the latter has surpassed him with maturity.

We will see later on, I would rather take SS at DOUBLE THE PRICE THOUGH. Does price not matter anymore? Take the Points could go off the favorite, and sure he can win, but Im looking at 10-1 on SS and Im playing some pick 3's where I am sure to get an even bigger overlay because he is going to be the 4,5th choice... Starting in race 8, all/4/4,8 and 1,2,5,7/2,4,8/4,8
Potential for huge tickets for $1, IMO

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ughh, what if he is just not that good in the first place? I dont like him today, he can prove me wrong, Im leaning everything on Chinchon and SS.

SS has to show me that he can run well against good horses. TTP has already shown that. The two figure to pretty much get the same trip today. Your position is that it makes more sense to bet the longer of the two. While this might work in statistics and has specific application in horse racing, it doesn't work that well, IMO, in this particular case. Here, I'll take shorter odds on what I consider to be the better horse rather than stab with a horse of lesser ability just because he'll be longer odds. In other words, SS is NOT winning this race. Too many other horses have to NOT RUN for him to win.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

SS has to show me that he can run well against good horses. TTP has already shown that. The two figure to pretty much get the same trip today. Your position is that it makes more sense to bet the longer of the two. While this might work in statistics and has specific application in horse racing, it doesn't work that well, IMO, in this particular case. Here, I'll take shorter odds on what I consider to be the better horse rather than stab with a horse of lesser ability just because he'll be longer odds. In other words, SS is NOT winning this race. Too many other horses have to NOT RUN for him to win.

Good Luck Fats, I did not put much into it, I played the 2 pick 3's I posted and I used Chinchon equally.

[Hoist Her Flag]

I just found a replay of the 2010 Chantilly race (the last race for Chinchon) he somehow was blocked the entire length of the stretch in a 5 horse field. I played him last year in the Manhatten and he wasn't good enough that day. Looks tough in this spot. passing if under 7/2.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

I just found a replay of the 2010 Chantilly race (the last race for Chinchon) he somehow was blocked the entire length of the stretch in a 5 horse field. I played him last year in the Manhatten and he wasn't good enough that day. Looks tough in this spot. passing if under 7/2.

I dont really want Winchester and hoping 1 of the speeds can rate and get first jump, Chinchon appears to be the logical one, as far as making the last run.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Good Luck Fats, I did not put much into it, I played the 2 pick 3's I posted and I used Chinchon equally.

You too.

I'll bet to win if I get morning line or >.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You too.

I'll be to win if I get morning line or >.

Luck sucks Fats, this one hurt...and I normally dont play tris

2010-07-03 05:27:10 PM Monmouth Park Race 10 $10 TF on 4,7,8 with 4,7,8 with 4,7,8 (ticket:34898-41252) $60.00