Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[tycharles01]

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

[KonaNative]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

Depends on your definition of Class. It takes a combination of speed and stamina to win on the Poly.

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

[Pedigree Ann]

I'm thinking GOOD works at Kee or TP would be a useful indicator. Especially if their works elsewhere aren't all that much. At least, that found me a 19/1 maiden winner a couple of weekends ago at TP. She looked a logical contender to me - I couldn't believe the price.

Originally Posted by oracle80

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

[2MinsToPost]

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

You better not go to the bathroom again, that stuff smells too. You might as well just break down and die from constipation rather than suffer through a bad smell. Just like horses should run on dirt where they are more likely to break down rather than run on polytrack because it smells. There are plenty of good arguments against polytrack. The fact that it smells a little isn't one of them.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Originally Posted by Round Pen

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No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

[Round Pen]

No I don't think so I think I have been around long enough and know enough of these guys to know who is good and who isn't.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

Joel what these guys don't realize is obviously what you and I do.
Trust me, there are plenty of guys who want nothing to do with racing on this stuff, and after a few beers will tell you plenty.
But noone wants to be painted in the non progressive stroke that the media would paint them in if they talk down about it.
Obvisouly Joel, like I, has had convos with these guys way off the record, and heard the same thing.
Everybody I know just wants a deeper cushion with a safe deeper dirt surface, problem solved. Except some con men can't try and make money marketing dirt now can they.
I find it very obvious that the trainers who talk this stuff up are failures who never won a big race on the dirt in their lives, lots of Eurotrash is basically what likes it.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

Conventional wisdom of training?? Is that the "cheat as much as possible without being caught" angle that so many "great" trainers of today are enjoying???

I am sure you are aware of it, but just in case.... here is a nice piece of reading for you or anyone else who thinks that everything and everybody is on the up and up.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive.

This is also why Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is stupid... he knows exactly whats going on out the on the backside... He was trying to do everyone a favor.. instead everyone got pissed at him...

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

YOu are a liar, and you have a vested interest in the stuff.
Care to tell us all about the Turfway numbers for the past meet?
Oh, and nice try saying that 5 horses 15-1 or longer could win stakes like that in one day. Where have you ever seen that? Go ahead and try and pull one card from anywhere at any track where they ran 5 stakes races in one day and ALL were bombs. Get real will you? WHo do you think you are talking to here, idiots?
Its like the first time in history that a track runs 5 stakes on one card and every horse is an unfathomable bomb. YOu wanna explain to us, that just happens, yeah ok sure.
No please get those Turfway figures for us if you will.
Bet you any amount you wanna bet!!! Keeneland's handle goes down.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface.

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!