What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.

10% is a realistic number.

Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300


Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.


Yes +475

No -700

5Dimes has

Yes TC +650
No TC -1175


So, either the "NO -700" is generous at Bodog or the "YES +650" is generous at 5Dimes; OR the real odds are about +675.

I haven't gone over the Preakness PP's enough to venture an opinion on fair odds for that race or the TC, but I'm guessing it's the -700 for the "NO TC" at BoDog that's generous.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).

Of course.

Right final result....brain fart in typing it.