Sidney's Candy

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bottom line is this ... if Sidney's Candy is just off the early lead and looms large on the turn but comes up empty in the stretch. I love him in the Derby against a tremendously weak looking crop.

All of California will give up on him after such a performance.

If Sidney's Candy wins the Santa Anita Derby and/or finishes well with Lookin At Lucky ... in a normal crop you're supposed to HATE him in the Derby. In this tremendously weak one ... you're still forced off of him for the KY Derby.

Given a fair draw, what would your best guess be at his KY Derby odds in the above scenarios?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Given a fair draw, what would your best guess be at his KY Derby odds in the above scenarios?

20-1 to 30-1, he could still be the wise guy type of horse. First time dirt, Saddler, Candy Ride.... He would have a lot of things that people would like.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

20-1 to 30-1, he could still be the wise guy type of horse. First time dirt, Saddler, Candy Ride.... He would have a lot of things that people would like.

First time dirt and Sadler is not a good thing.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

First time dirt and Sadler is not a good thing.

Based on what?

Sadler in dirt routes:

2007: 12-for-33 ($4.12 ROI)
2006: 15-for-66 ($1.70 ROI)
2005: 16-for-80 ($3.37 ROI)
2004: 19-for-75 ($2.40 ROI)
2003: 16-for-77 ($2.70 ROI)

2003 to 2007: 92-for-392 (23.5% wins $2.74 ROI)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Based on what?

Sadler in dirt routes:

2007: 12-for-33 ($4.12 ROI)
2006: 15-for-66 ($1.70 ROI)
2005: 16-for-80 ($3.37 ROI)
2004: 19-for-75 ($2.40 ROI)
2003: 16-for-77 ($2.70 ROI)

2003 to 2007: 92-for-392 (23.5% wins $2.74 ROI)

I should have clarified it a bit more. He's 1 for his last 17 with horses going synth to dirt in stakes races including 0 for his last 14. Coco Belle in the Miss Woodford was his last winner in this category. Perhaps the sample size is a too small but I'm just not sure Sidney's Candy or Dave in Dixie are going to get better on dirt.

NT

[alysheba4]

if he runs well sat. he will be 7 to 11/1 range....who is to say he wont love churchill.......

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't want much to do with him if he runs well Saturday.

I think he runs like a dirt horse - just as I think Interactif (who ate into his margin sharply late) runs like a synthetic horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Here's what really happened......

I have a monster chest cold, I was lying in bed, trying to enjoy one of my favorite movies, Leaving Las Vegas, and we are just about at the scene where Elisabeth Shue pours booze on her naked breasts ( is there a sexier/more depraved scene in movie history? ) and this doofus calls/interupts me with some drivel about a 2:1 shot in the SA Derby.

I guess I should be happy he didn't bring up the TVG contest.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's what really happened......

I have a monster chest cold, I was lying in bed, trying to enjoy one of my favorite movies, Leaving Las Vegas, and we are just about at the scene where Elisabeth Shue pours booze on her naked breasts ( is there a sexier/more depraved scene in movie history? ) and this doofus calls/interupts me with some drivel about a 2:1 shot in the SA Derby.

I guess I should be happy he didn't bring up the TVG contest.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's what really happened......

I have a monster chest cold, I was lying in bed, trying to enjoy one of my favorite movies, Leaving Las Vegas, and we are just about at the scene where Elisabeth Shue pours booze on her naked breasts ( is there a sexier/more depraved scene in movie history? ) and this doofus calls/interupts me with some drivel about a 2:1 shot in the SA Derby.

I guess I should be happy he didn't bring up the TVG contest.

Greatest scene ever...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

Greatest scene ever...

Right.....and he wonders why I was cranky.

An equivalent personal moment for DrugS is a girl who pays at Subway.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right.....and he wonders why I was cranky.

An equivalent personal moment for DrugS is a girl who pays at Subway.

You're a better man than me. I certainly would have hit the ignore button.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by GPK

Greatest scene ever...

Glad it isn't just me who thinks so...so what about Sidney's Candy???

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess I should be happy he didn't bring up the TVG contest.

I knew I forgot something.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's what really happened......

I have a monster chest cold, I was lying in bed, trying to enjoy one of my favorite movies, Leaving Las Vegas, and we are just about at the scene where Elisabeth Shue pours booze on her naked breasts ( is there a sexier/more depraved scene in movie history? ) and this doofus calls/interupts me with some drivel about a 2:1 shot in the SA Derby.

I guess I should be happy he didn't bring up the TVG contest.

And here I was talking about Michelle Yu today...that scene is much more worthy of a discussion...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Given a fair draw, what would your best guess be at his KY Derby odds in the above scenarios?

He will be utterly forgotten about.

I think because of Mine That Bird ... a lot of truly hopeless horses will be way overbet this year ... they normally are, but even to a greater extreme this year.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He will be utterly forgotten about.

I think because of Mine That Bird ... a lot of truly hopeless horses will be way overbet this year ... they normally are, but even to a greater extreme this year.

The Giacomo syndrome was already into effect last year.
Agreed, MTB made it much worse.
The Lukas maiden winner that went in the Preakness was 25-1...he should have been 250-1.