The true graveyard of Favorites

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

Wasn't WW like 6 for 8 last meet in those 4.5f races? It was something ridiculous. They all won by 6 lengths also

Guys like him, Pletcher, Asmussen, and at one time Ronny Warner and even further back (out of the sample above) Pat Byrne .. they all have been pretty tough with babies in those 4.5f races.

[dalakhani]

It seems like Rusty Arnold is always bringing in shots. I give his horses a second and third look in whatever spot they are in.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

It seems like Rusty Arnold is always bringing in shots. I give his horses a second and third look in whatever spot they are in.

Rusty Arnold started the fall meet red-hot. I think he had 4 or five winners opening weekend including a MSW on the 2nd day where he went 1-2.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ward was 3 for 11 in those races last year. He's 7-for-23 in them over the last 3 years.

Those 4.5 furlong races are the only kind of races Asmussen does well at on synthetic.

He's 10-for-40 with a $2.52 ROI with 4.5f horses on KEE synthetic.

In races further than 4.5f at KEE SYN - he's 8-for-101 with a pathetic $0.82 ROI.


At Woodbine poly, Asmussen is 21-for-75 with a profitable ROI in baby sprints of 4.5f and 5f.

Beyond 5f at Woodbine Poly he is just 57-for-411 with a $1.16 ROI. Losing close to triple the takeout from a big sample size.

[RockHardTen1985]

Todd always seems to pop them.

[RockHardTen1985]

Release the KRAKEN

[the_fat_man]

Lucky for you, it's not PID.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Lucky for you, it's not PID.

Favorites have won at 35% in the history of the PID.

That's right on the current national avg ... and when you factor in that the average field size is WELL below average nationally ... they probably underperform.

The not very untypical PID race...

* field of 6 or 7

* almost always at least two horses - sometimes as many as all but two who are just hopelessly overmatched and have no chance.

PID - with its sky high takeouts and low pool totals would appear at face value to be the single worst place around to bet.

The beauty of the place is twofold.

* Some of the most extreme and sustained track biases that you'll ever see anywhere pop up for extended periods of time. These are real biases .. the kind you truly almost never see in NY or So. Cal .. and especially not for as long as they last at PID

* Maiden races loaded with debuters and 2nd time starters often get big fields and have a way of attracting TERRIBLE favorites with established form.

Those two factors alone made PID one of the easiest places on the face of the earth to turn a profit at... even though it would logically figure to be among the hardest places to do so.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Those two factors alone made PID one of the easiest places on the face of the earth to turn a profit at... even though it would logically figure to be among the hardest places to do so.

I intended to play PID last year but got sidetracked and focused on WO, AP, and the Cali tracks. In the fall, I went back and did the charts for the PID meet. When I do past charts I like to see if some of my angle horses (chart stickouts) come back and win. Now, this works real well at some tracks (most of them being poly or fair dirt tracks). I was surprised that it went about as well as I'd ever seen it at PID. I'll definitely be playing this year.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

At Woodbine poly, Asmussen is 21-for-75 with a profitable ROI in baby sprints of 4.5f and 5f.

Beyond 5f at Woodbine Poly he is just 57-for-411 with a $1.16 ROI. Losing close to triple the takeout from a big sample size.

2 for 3 today (in non baby 5F sprints). Looks like someone had a talk with Contreras. Factor in the, at least, 10 blown rides by Contreras last year and Asmussen's poly stats wouldn't be as bad.

I suspect Asmussen is going to have a huge (i.e. 'typical') meet and make your stats irrelevant.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

2 for 3 today (in non baby 5F sprints). Looks like someone had a talk with Contreras. Factor in the, at least, 10 blown rides by Contreras last year and Asmussen's poly stats wouldn't be as bad.

I suspect Asmussen is going to have a huge (i.e. 'typical') meet and make your stats irrelevant.

He won the baby race at KEE today (no surprise), 2nd at 4-1 in a MCL, and 6th at 8-1 in an ALW. I still think it's profitable to fade his (non 4.5F) horses at Keeneland on the poly. That being said... it's not the abysmal numbers he had a few years ago on it when every runner was bombing at 4/5.