Odysseus pre-Derby start at KEE or OP

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It probably follows, then, that it would be more advantageous to utilize race type models rather than (numeric) speed/pace models when it comes to handicapping. Instead of focusing on how fast a horse is able to run, one would look at what type of races the horse runs well/poorly in. Then again, this would mean there'd be no need for the bounce, and we wouldn't want that.

Of course we know that " bounce " is just a convenient euphamism for " I didn't want to take the time to figure out why " but what you ignore is that accurate numbers can help predict race dynamics, i.e. good pace figures, and also tell you how capable a horse is under optimal conditions....which is what you ( and I mean YOU specifically in this case ) are looking for when you bet a horse. This is a flaw in your game...as you are as dogmatic as many sheet players ( I always laugh when I recall someone I know calling them Stalinists ) in an opposite manner of disregarding them.

Everything has its place. That doesn't mean we need to use and understand everything....but the more factors we understand and use effectively the better we will do.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

what you ignore is that accurate numbers can help predict race dynamics, i.e. good pace figures, and also tell you how capable a horse is under optimal conditions....which is what you ( and I mean YOU specifically in this case ) are looking for when you bet a horse. This is a flaw in your game...as you are as dogmatic as many sheet players

Everything has its place. That doesn't mean we need to use and understand everything....but the more factors we understand and use effectively the better we will do.

You're making an assumption here:

1) that numeric pace is a larger set than setups

I have reasons for thinking that this is just not the case. So, basically, I'm being dogmatic because I don't want to go from the more to the less comprehensive?

I think anyone new to the game should just stay away from numbers (of any kind). They should focus on understanding race dynamics and when they get to a certain level they can then incorporate numbers into their game. This is clearly not the way things are done, as reading comments for just about any race clearly indicates how lacking people are when it comes to understanding race dynamics. Of course, they certain don't lack the ability to point out the fast or slow horses. Anybody can reason about regularities in a model. The idea, however, is to understand how they apply to the thing that's modeled.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're making an assumption here:

1) that numeric pace is a larger set than setups

I have reasons for thinking that this is just not the case. So, basically, I'm being dogmatic because I don't want to go from the more to the less comprehensive?

I think anyone new to the game should just stay away from numbers (of any kind). They should focus on understanding race dynamics and when they get to a certain level they can then incorporate numbers into their game. This is clearly not the way things are done, as reading comments for just about any race clearly indicates how lacking people are when it comes to understanding race dynamics. Of course, they certain don't lack the ability to point out the fast or slow horses. Anybody can reason about regularities in a model. The idea, however, is to understand how they apply to the thing that's modeled.

First of all, I never made your first assumption.

I agree that people learning the game would be FAR better off taking the time to understand how races are run and how this affects the outcome and performances of the participants before they incorperate speed figures. This does not mean that speed figures aren't valuable...it is a completely different concept. You have continued to suggest speed figures are useless. You are the one that espouses a dogmatic approach to the game. Just because your methods may be more comprehensive doesn't mean they are everything.....and that is all I am saying.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have continued to suggest speed figures are useless.

Just about any day spent watching a card at GG, for example, pretty much cements this opinion. When all jocks ride like Dominguez, I'll certainly change my opinion.