Odysseus pre-Derby start at KEE or OP

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Super Saver isn't going 10 panels in a horse van.

I highly doubt thats his problem. He is not very good, this class is top heavy then SHITTY.

ESKENDEREYA, Lookin at Lucky and Dublin are all really good IMO. They can all win the Derby and continue to be good long term. Dublin might be the least liked out of those 3, but his trip was HORRIBLE last time that premature move had to have cost him. He needs to be allowed to make 1 big long run.
After these 3 you have Awesome Act and Sidneys Candy who IMO can both pop up and do some damage... After these 5 there is no one else. I think a horse like Sidneys Candy would pop up and run huge first time dirt, but I dont think he can beat Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I highly doubt thats his problem. He is not very good, this class is top heavy then SHITTY.

ESKENDEREYA, Lookin at Lucky and Dublin are all really good IMO. They can all win the Derby and continue to be good long term. Dublin might be the least liked out of those 3, but his trip was HORRIBLE last time that premature move had to have cost him. He needs to be allowed to make 1 big long run.
After these 3 you have Awesome Act and Sidneys Candy who IMO can both pop up and do some damage... After these 5 there is no one else. I think a horse like Sidneys Candy would pop up and run huge first time dirt, but I dont think he can beat Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.

dublin is really good? his trip was horrible? because he made a premature move? thats not a horrible trip.

hes a closing sprinter that can clunk up in a 2 turn race if the pace is fast enough. he has little to no chance winning the derby. he is totally dependant on pace and has done nothing to show he is a horse that will appreciate 10 furlongs.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

dublin is really good? his trip was horrible? because he made a premature move? thats not a horrible trip.

hes a closing sprinter that can clunk up in a 2 turn race if the pace is fast enough. he has little to no chance winning the derby. he is totally dependant on pace and has done nothing to show he is a horse that will appreciate 10 furlongs.

Based on what you just said, it looks like you have no idea how he tripped out last race. His trip last out was bad because he was 4-wide the whole way around the track while making a ridiculously early move. In the Southwest, the pace wasn't exceptionally fast. It was solid, but it wasn't blistering and he had a tough trip that day out too. I would have to agree right now that the only horses that look capable of winning the Derby right now are 3 that were mentioned, Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin as of now are the only 3I can see right now.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Based on what you just said, it looks like you have no idea how he tripped out last race. His trip last out was bad because he was 4-wide the whole way around the track while making a ridiculously early move. In the Southwest, the pace wasn't exceptionally fast. It was solid, but it wasn't blistering and he had a tough trip that day out too. I would have to agree right now that the only horses that look capable of winning the Derby right now are 3 that were mentioned, Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin as of now are the only 3I can see right now.

well you are in good company at least with your opinion.

watch the race again. if he was 4 wide throughout then nobles promise was 3 wide throughout. i agree, he moved early. so did nobles promise. what is his excuse for getting beaten soundly by nobles promise?

we disagree about what is horrible trip is. he moved prematurely, but he also had nothing left when it counted. hes a closing sprinter.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

well you are in good company at least with your opinion.

watch the race again. if he was 4 wide throughout then nobles promise was 3 wide throughout. i agree, he moved early. so did nobles promise. what is his excuse for getting beaten soundly by nobles promise?

we disagree about what is horrible trip is. he moved prematurely, but he also had nothing left when it counted. hes a closing sprinter.

Surely if you're discussing race dynamics you understand the difference between being right behind the pace and lengths off of it when launching a middle move, right?

There's a big difference between being in 4th, 3.5 lengths off the pace and being in sixth, seven lengths off the pace and those horses moving at the same time. That's where Noble's Promise and Dublin were when the field straightened out for the backstretch.

NT

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Surely if you're discussing race dynamics you understand the difference between being right behind the pace and lengths off of it when launching a middle move, right?

There's a big difference between being in 4th, 3.5 lengths off the pace and being in sixth, seven lengths off the pace and those horses moving at the same time. That's where Noble's Promise and Dublin were when the field straightened out for the backstretch.

NT

sure i understand all that. i also understand that nobles promise ran much better than dublin did and is getting about half the talk. on top of it all, nobles promise was making his first start off a freshening and first time on dirt.

do you think dublin is one of only 3 horses that can win the derby right now?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

well you are in good company at least with your opinion.

watch the race again. if he was 4 wide throughout then nobles promise was 3 wide throughout. i agree, he moved early. so did nobles promise. what is his excuse for getting beaten soundly by nobles promise?

we disagree about what is horrible trip is. he moved prematurely, but he also had nothing left when it counted. hes a closing sprinter.

Keep taking shots at me... Does it make you feel better about your shitty opinion? I dont ever remember a year where I said only 3-5 horses can win the derby, of course everyone likes a few horses every year but even last year I thought anyone could win, this year is different the top 3 and even 5 to some extent really stick out.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Keep taking shots at me... Does it make you feel better about your shitty opinion?

Instead of playing the victim, you really need to try and understand why Noble's Promise ran better than Dublin (and Lookin at Lucky) in the Rebel.
Whether he needed the race and figures to go forward is really not the issue.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Keep taking shots at me... Does it make you feel better about your shitty opinion? I dont ever remember a year where I said only 3-5 horses can win the derby, of course everyone likes a few horses every year but even last year I thought anyone could win, this year is different the top 3 and even 5 to some extent really stick out.

im not taking shots at you. i dont need to. but you dont have to be here long to figure out who has the good opinions and who has the shitty ones. what side do you think you fall on?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

im not taking shots at you. i dont need to. but you dont have to be here long to figure out who has the good opinions and who has the shitty ones. what side do you think you fall on?

I think my opinion is clearly better then yours.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

he is totally dependent on pace

He and 99.9999999999% of all horses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He and 99.9999999999% of all horses.

While that's an exaggeration.....but I don't understand why people have so much trouble grasping this.

Races are frequently won because of how they are run.

[tector]

Odysseus may not be a great horse, but it is unlikely he will be facing many great horses May 1. He's not my pick, but then again there is no tote board up yet, either. Give me a price and I might give him a bet.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Races are frequently won because of how they are run.

It probably follows, then, that it would be more advantageous to utilize race type models rather than (numeric) speed/pace models when it comes to handicapping. Instead of focusing on how fast a horse is able to run, one would look at what type of races the horse runs well/poorly in. Then again, this would mean there'd be no need for the bounce, and we wouldn't want that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It probably follows, then, that it would be more advantageous to utilize race type models rather than (numeric) speed/pace models when it comes to handicapping. Instead of focusing on how fast a horse is able to run, one would look at what type of races the horse runs well/poorly in. Then again, this would mean there'd be no need for the bounce, and we wouldn't want that.

Of course we know that " bounce " is just a convenient euphamism for " I didn't want to take the time to figure out why " but what you ignore is that accurate numbers can help predict race dynamics, i.e. good pace figures, and also tell you how capable a horse is under optimal conditions....which is what you ( and I mean YOU specifically in this case ) are looking for when you bet a horse. This is a flaw in your game...as you are as dogmatic as many sheet players ( I always laugh when I recall someone I know calling them Stalinists ) in an opposite manner of disregarding them.

Everything has its place. That doesn't mean we need to use and understand everything....but the more factors we understand and use effectively the better we will do.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

what you ignore is that accurate numbers can help predict race dynamics, i.e. good pace figures, and also tell you how capable a horse is under optimal conditions....which is what you ( and I mean YOU specifically in this case ) are looking for when you bet a horse. This is a flaw in your game...as you are as dogmatic as many sheet players

Everything has its place. That doesn't mean we need to use and understand everything....but the more factors we understand and use effectively the better we will do.

You're making an assumption here:

1) that numeric pace is a larger set than setups

I have reasons for thinking that this is just not the case. So, basically, I'm being dogmatic because I don't want to go from the more to the less comprehensive?

I think anyone new to the game should just stay away from numbers (of any kind). They should focus on understanding race dynamics and when they get to a certain level they can then incorporate numbers into their game. This is clearly not the way things are done, as reading comments for just about any race clearly indicates how lacking people are when it comes to understanding race dynamics. Of course, they certain don't lack the ability to point out the fast or slow horses. Anybody can reason about regularities in a model. The idea, however, is to understand how they apply to the thing that's modeled.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

dublin is really good? his trip was horrible? because he made a premature move? thats not a horrible trip.

hes a closing sprinter that can clunk up in a 2 turn race if the pace is fast enough. he has little to no chance winning the derby. he is totally dependant on pace and has done nothing to show he is a horse that will appreciate 10 furlongs.

You have never liked Dublin, when you first came here you bashed him.... Now your stuck bashing him. Dublin is at the very top if this class, I and strongly beleive that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You have never liked Dublin, when you first came here you bashed him.... Now your stuck bashing him. Dublin is at the very top if this class, I and strongly beleive that.

I before E except after C.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I before E except after C.

Thanks Andrew

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I before E except after C.

What? No lesson on your/you're?