What if???

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

If Baffert had Zenyatta she would have been working bullets at 2 and would have never started later than Oak Tree and its highly unlikely she has anything close to the career she has had. Thats not a knock really, Baffert has a operation geared completely different than Shirreffs.

Yeah - it's very possible it could have happened like that.

Zenyatta was just a $60,000 yearling ... anyone who thinks Shirreffs hasn't done a masterful job of managing her to a 15-for-15 with 13 Graded Stakes record is downright insane.

My favorite book is Art of War... to quote that...

To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

The best victory is when the opponent surrenders of its own accord before there are any actual hostilities... It is best to win without fighting

Because of what happened last weekend with Zardana and Zenyatta ... the Zeyatta/Rachel Alexandra debate might as well be dead and the Zenyatta camp has won. The RA camp backed off and the race isn't happening.

It doesn't matter that Rachel Alexandra ran the better race of the two last weekend IMO - and that Rachel Alexandra was far more likely to step forward in the Apple Blossom than Zenyatta was leaving closer friendly Pro-Ride for real dirt.

[VOL JACK]

Doug, Is Byk posting under your login?

That is some deep shi+ man.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

No. He knows hundreds of words I've never heard of. I think he reads the dictionary in his free time.

If I was in Zenyatta's camp ... I'd want my glorious public triumph in the Apple Blossom in the form of a showdown with "South American Sensation" Bambera. After that .. I'd want to be done with dirt for good.

Come back to California where the older male division is a joke and feast on that. She passed the Hollywood Gold Cup last year (Life is Sweet went instead) and she passed the Pacific Classic.

Besides one or both of those races ...I'd like to face Zardana on synthetic and just toy with her bigtime because she stinks on it ... but Zandara's owners might not be OK with that... they might want her back on dirt.

After the Apple Blossom and an attempted conquest of Misremebered ... I wouldn't leave California until the Breeders Cup.

I'd prefer to run in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf and do something truly historic ... the first horse to ever win 3 different Breeders Cup races. I don't want Quality Road in the Classic if he's still as good than as now .. and I don't want to go in the Distaff unless I truly believed I could win it.

[randallscott35]

Giacomo doesn't help your case, its a nothing burger. Would you have lit up like that for Kiaran had the dreadful Closing Argument won the Derby? I doubt it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Giacomo doesn't help your case, its a nothing burger. Would you have lit up like that for Kiaran had the dreadful Closing Argument won the Derby? I doubt it.

Kiaran McLaughlin is a GREAT trainer. Probably one of the 5 best I've seen over the course of my lifetime following racing. Closing Argument has almost nothing to do with that either.

If you look at Giacomo's win in the Kentucky Derby and his very respectable 4th in the BC Classic ... I do think it is one of many examples of how dangerous a trainer Shirriffs can be at getting a horse to run their peak race when pointing for a main goal.

I think when he was training for 505 .. the main goal was to come out smoking...and that could have been what the owners wanted. He's totally changed his style since in that regard.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

After the Apple Blossom and an attempted conquest of Misremebered ... I wouldn't leave California until the Breeders Cup.

I'd prefer to run in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf and do something truly historic ... the first horse to ever win 3 different Breeders Cup races. I don't want Quality Road in the Classic if he's still as good than as now .. and I don't want to go in the Distaff unless I truly believed I could win it.

I think it would be interesting to see her in the Arlington Million.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think it would be interesting to see her in the Arlington Million.

I would bet my life she doesn't go there. Nor should she.

She's not obligated to do anything right now.

She ran in the Breeders Cup Classic against Gio Ponti and that 3rd place finisher from Europe that struggled with the turn and got the giant sheet number in the race.

Rachel Alexandra's connections have ducked her ... ON DIRT .. not the other way around.

If Rachel Alexandra wants to face her before the BC ... let her come out to California and run 10 furlongs on synthetic... she'll embaress herself doing that.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I would bet my life she doesn't go there. Nor should she.

She's not obligated to do anything right now.

She ran in the Breeders Cup Classic against Gio Ponti and that 3rd place finisher from Europe that struggled with the turn and got the giant sheet number in the race.

Rachel Alexandra's connections have ducked her ... ON DIRT .. not the other way around.

If Rachel Alexandra wants to face her before the BC ... let her come out to California and run 10 furlongs on synthetic... she'll embaress herself doing that.

I was not implying anything at all. I just think it would be an interesting spot for her.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

When you're trying to protect a flawless record ... the interesting spots are back home against Misremembered and Jeranimo at 10fs on synthetic in a pair of races you ducked last year.

They aren't in Chicago - against males - on a surface you haven't tried (but will probably love) - in a race that might feature true Grade 1 caliber males.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because of what happened last weekend with Zardana and Zenyatta ... the Zeyatta/Rachel Alexandra debate might as well be dead and the Zenyatta camp has won. The RA camp backed off and the race isn't happening.

It doesn't matter that Rachel Alexandra ran the better race of the two last weekend IMO - and that Rachel Alexandra was far more likely to step forward in the Apple Blossom than Zenyatta was leaving closer friendly Pro-Ride for real dirt.

Let's see. Z has run 11 wipeouts in 15 races; RA has 5 in 14 races. This is interesting because wipeouts are much more likely on dirt, as, typically, there's much less separation on poly/turf. Which sort of makes the 11 for 15 thing that much more impressive --especially for a horse that comes from the end of the pack. And, when you consider that Z's most pronounced wipeout was on dirt, you sort of get a sense of how unique what she's doing really is. If Z was running on dirt, she'd be gapping fields -- like RA had been, only she'd be doing it much more often --- maybe always.

I wonder what happens if Flores doesn't gun Zardana as soon as RA takes the lead. I still think that Zardana runs her down. However, by asking Zardana when he did, and having her respond the way she did, he forced RA to be asked earlier than Borel wanted to. Whether she was short or not is really not the issue: she was definitely short for this type of challenge. This was clearly unexpected by the connections and the fact that they've bailed on the AB pretty much indicates that they don't think she's up for something that's sure to tax her even more.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's see. Z has run 11 wipeouts in 15 races; RA has 5 in 14 races. This is interesting because wipeouts are much more likely on dirt, as, typically, there's much less separation on poly/turf. Which sort of makes the 11 for 15 thing that much more impressive --especially for a horse that comes from the end of the pack. And, when you consider that Z's most pronounced wipeout was on dirt, you sort of get a sense of how unique what she's doing really is. If Z was running on dirt, she'd be gapping fields -- like RA had been, only she'd be doing it much more often --- maybe always.

I wonder what happens if Flores doesn't gun Zardana as soon as RA takes the lead. I still think that Zardana runs her down. However, by asking Zardana when he did, and having her respond the way she did, he forced RA to be asked earlier than Borel wanted to. Whether she was short or not is really not the issue: she was definitely short for this type of challenge. This was clearly unexpected by the connections and the fact that they've bailed on the AB pretty much indicates that they don't think she's up for something that's sure to tax her even more.

paint it anyway you want fat man , the cali crew retired their horse , retired - means never run again , but mysteriosly they keep the horse breezing and don't miss a beat since the classic , you can talk anyway you want about this , but that is a fact and that's why they are ready to run on april 9th..... there is no way in the world they could get RA ready in time for this race in April from late Jan after a 4 month + layoff and be able to compete , you know it too, that's the shame cuse you a smart guy

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

paint it anyway you want fat man , the cali crew retired their horse , retired - means never run again , but mysteriosly they keep the horse breezing and don't miss a beat since the classic , you can talk anyway you want about this , but that is a fact and that's why they are ready to run on april 9th..... there is no way in the world they could get RA ready in time for this race in April from late Jan after a 4 month + layoff and be able to compete , you know it too, that's the shame cuse you a smart guy

Gales

Why is it that what's obvious to the connections is far from for all of RA's (speed influenced) supporters? Say they pump her up and decide to go in the AB. And, Sheriffs sends Z, along with 3rd string Z. The latter shadows RA and moves when she does. 3rd string Z has shown she can really kick it when asked and it's doubtful RA could handle her (alone). And while these two go at it for a bit, Big Z zooms by with wipeout #12.They'd put such a beating on RA, that they'd have to take her HOTY award back.

Assmussen knows this; Jackson knows this. Dirt/speed freaks just don't.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Why is it that what's obvious to the connections is far from for all of RA's (speed influenced) supporters? Say they pump her up and decide to go in the AB. And, Sheriffs sends Z, along with 3rd string Z. The latter shadows RA and moves when she does. 3rd string Z has shown she can really kick it when asked and it's doubtful RA could handle her (alone). And while these two go at it for a bit, Big Z zooms by with wipeout #12.They'd put such a beating on RA, that they'd have to take her HOTY award back.

Assmussen knows this; Jackson knows this. Dirt/speed freaks just don't.

Fat Man - horses are animals not machines , when you make them do things (accelerated training programs) they don't want to do they will reject you and not want to participate

pushing ra for an april 9th race against team sheriffs is going to prove what??

we have an animal that was out from early sept to late jan , we have an animal that hasn't missed a beat since oct - it's a simple fact that Z will have more foundartion in her on april 9th

assmussen needs to get some long works into her , get her some foundation , and then get her back into racing by the summer - she had a tough campaign last year and by not showing up until the summer she will be following the same path as Z took the year before after her tough campaing on '08 when she didn't show up until May

[the_fat_man]

Gales

Give me a scenario where RA handles both Z's in a race. Because this is what most likely will happen. (The owner of Zardana will certainly not want to back down.) There isn't one. This is obvious to her connections. They've conceded, Bro.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Give me a scenario where RA handles both Z's in a race. Because this is what most likely will happen. (The owner of Zardana will certainly not want to back down.) There isn't one. This is obvious to her connections. They've conceded, Bro.

again you are deflecting away from the most basic part of the equation here

the horse cannot simply be ready for the race on april 9th

you know it , and you come on here and play hide and go seek

why don't you talk about the sinster plot that the connections of Z did and retire her ??? now jackson look like the bad guy cuse he's backing out. let me guess she kept training after the classic because the moss family was going to bring her to prospect park and challenege you to a race on your bike in the spring once the snow melted and you worked off the "fat"

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

paint it anyway you want fat man , the cali crew retired their horse , retired - means never run again , but mysteriosly they keep the horse breezing and don't miss a beat since the classic , you can talk anyway you want about this , but that is a fact and that's why they are ready to run on april 9th..... there is no way in the world they could get RA ready in time for this race in April from late Jan after a 4 month + layoff and be able to compete , you know it too, that's the shame cuse you a smart guy

Try explaining that to Jay Hovdey or your average racing fan - or your average bettor who losses full takeout or more.

I guess it doesn't help any when the trainer you have in your corner to get you back ready from that layoff is Steve Asmussen. That's certainly what the stats were saying.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Try explaining that to Jay Hovdey or your average racing fan - or your average bettor who losses full takeout or more.

I guess it doesn't help any when the trainer you have in your corner to get you back ready from that layoff is Steve Asmussen. That's certainly what the stats were saying.

would sheriffs run Z against RA if the roles were reversed ??? take a long hard time to answer the question , i think the answer is fairly simple

[slotdirt]

What is Jay Hovdey's deal anyway? Can the guy be any more pro-Zenyatta? Has Moss promised him a breeding or something?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by gales0678

would sheriffs run Z against RA if the roles were reversed ??? take a long hard time to answer the question , i think the answer is fairly simple

If she lost, especially like the way it looked like she was going to lose on Saturday (i.e.- traffic trouble/miss by a neck after going 8 wide). I think Shirriffs would have absolutely no problem still going to Oaklawn.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

If she lost, especially like the way it looked like she was going to lose on Saturday (i.e.- traffic trouble/miss by a neck after going 8 wide). I think Shirriffs would have absolutely no problem still going to Oaklawn.

matt it has nothing to do with winning or losing the prep

if zenyatta did not train from early sept to late jan , then started breezing in late jan ,then had the hard race last sat to point for a race in april (the AB)and RA say won a bc race and didn't miss a beat since oct do you really believe that moss/sheriffs would really want to take her on ...... think about it hard and long , remember these are animals , these are not machines , if you have never been on the backside with these animals i know it's hard to imagine becuase when we watch them race they look like machines with a key and gas pedal attached to them , it's not that simple