Change of Plans for Lava Man

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

LMAO

what planet do you guys live on?


Repent

Why is it that guys who have the least success betting, have the most confidence in their opinions? Maybe you can answer that for me. Have you ever made a substantial amount of money betting on horses? Have you ever had a winning year betting on horses? Have you ever bet on horses five days a week and shown a profit at the end of the year. If not, then why are you so confident in your opinion?

If you are such an expert at analyzing horses' abilities, you can quit your job and make your living betting on horses/ and or as a bloodstock agent.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why is it that guys who have the least success betting, have the most confidence in their opinions? Maybe you can answer that for me. Have you ever made a substantial amount of money betting on horses? Have you ever had a winning year betting on horses? Have you ever bet on horses five days a week and shown a profit at the end of the year. If not, then why are you so confident in your opinion?

If you are such an expert at analyzing horses' abilities, you can quit your job and make your living betting on horses/ and or as a bloodstock agent.

actually, lets take them one at a time.

yes
yes
yes
5 days a week and shown a profit at the end of year?
no,
but 7 days a week?
yes

and no,
im not going to quit my job b/c richi thinks I should.
I actually like my job and Im smart enough to know that
a) I dont know sh*t about horses or any other animal
b) Im not going to out myself in a situatuon where my economic worth is dependent soley on horses


Im simply not that great of a handicapper and I surely am not going to quit my f*cking job so I can bet on horses all day.
I spent too much time in school to do that.

that does not mean that I can not be profitable at the track.
I go cold at times like most ppl, but I know what I am good at and what Im not.

you dont know me richi.
you dont know what I know and what I do not.
dont pretend that you do.



Repent

[Gander]

Repent- I respect your your opiniion and have enjoyed numerous back and forths with you both in agreement and in disagreement.

1) Relaxed Gesture a fast horse? How do you define fast and maybe if you are willing to throw out his last 3 races which by the way sucked. When has he ever been able to beat top competition?

2) EC and Cacique are very good horses, albeit not so great that they too dont require a lot to go their way in a race to win, as evidenced by having perfect trips in all of their wins this year. So what exactly makes them any different than the Tin Man except they are not confirmed front runners?

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

Maybe because

(1) making a living by finding good betting opportunities can be both challenging and a lot of fun.
(2) there is zero need to go to an OTB.
(3) it's nice to be able to take days off whenever you feel like it.

Your points are valid, too, Gander. There is a good chunk of stress that comes with the uncertain income. But if one is very disciplined and understands risk, the rewards are there.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Gander

Repent- I respect your your opiniion and have enjoyed numerous back and forths with you both in agreement and in disagreement.

1) Relaxed Gesture a fast horse? How do you define fast and maybe if you are willing to throw out his last 3 races which by the way sucked. When has he ever been able to beat top competition?

2) EC and Cacique are very good horses, albeit not so great that they too dont require a lot to go their way in a race to win, as evidenced by having perfect trips in all of their wins this year. So what exactly makes them any different than the Tin Man except they are not confirmed front runners?

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

Tim you have been knocking Cacique all year long and saying he needs a perfect trip is insane. hes most definitely not a frontrunner yet he wired a grade one field in the Manhattan. And before you point to the slow pace being a factor in that win, you might wanna look at the other grass races that day where the other winners came from dead last on the soggy turf course, running down pace setters who set equally slow fractions.
In his Man O War win, Cacique was trapped behind a slow pace and exploded the last 1/8th, running it in 10:4 on a turf course that was also soggy. That was the most impressive grass win by anyone in the US this year.
His losses were also stellar. In he Woodford he was boxed and trapped for most of the race. Out in Cali, he was spun 11 wide at the top of the lane on a tight turned SA turf course and got beat a neck while flying home.
No excuses in the UN yet he ran a dead game race to be an easy 2nd. And out at Arlington he conceded the slowest pace I've seen THIS YEAR and maybe EVER when the speed and firmness of the turf course are factored in.
Hes definitely been versatile, and run well at every course hes been on.
Grass racing is usally like this. Very few older grass horses rip off win after win due to the nature of grass racing being so heavily influenced by pace and trips.
The Tin Man is a great horse, an even better story, and a wonderful horse to root for. But hes only had to ship one time and in that race he caught that unbelieveable pace.
Trust me Tim, had the Tin Man had the campaign that EC and Cacvique have had, having to run at different courses and turf conditions in differently paced race in exclusively grade one races, his record would also show blemishes.
EC and cacique have competed in NOTHING but grade one races all year long, and if you don't think that makes the road to victories much harder, then I don't know what the point of the argument is.

[Gander]

I think they are all turn takers. Very good horses, each of who will win when they get there preferred set up. No I dont think Cacique necessarily needs a perfect trip to win, but show me a race EC has won without a perfect stalking trip? And the Tin Man has won coming from just off the lead as well, much like EC has done in all 3 of his wins this year.

Hopefully we'll get all 3 to have good preps and we'll see them all at Churchill in the BC.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Gander

Repent- I respect your your opiniion and have enjoyed numerous back and forths with you both in agreement and in disagreement.

1) Relaxed Gesture a fast horse? How do you define fast and maybe if you are willing to throw out his last 3 races which by the way sucked. When has he ever been able to beat top competition?

2) EC and Cacique are very good horses, albeit not so great that they too dont require a lot to go their way in a race to win, as evidenced by having perfect trips in all of their wins this year. So what exactly makes them any different than the Tin Man except they are not confirmed front runners?

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

Tim,
feel the same.

here goes my response
1-RG ran a bang up race in the Manhattan.
look at the trouble he encountered, and still got up to finish in almost a dead heat.
when has he beaten top class competition.
Canadian International about 12 months ago.
Grey Swallow among others.

2.what makes EC and Cacique better than The Tin Man?
well, Cacique has shown the ability to win grade 1 races on the pace and coming from off the pace.
EC has won grade 1 races this year from 9 to 11f and done it in a variety of ways.


the Tin Man has only shown the ability to beat these types when allowed to set ridiculously slow fractions on the lead. thats fine. they allowed him to get away with that and he took advantage of that.
but dont expect me or anyone else to draw a transitional line from that performance to the Breeders Cup Turf and think that he has a chance. that race alone simply does not give him the credentials to be competitive on Nov 4th, IN MY OPINION.
thats the key, I dont give a sh*t what anyone else thinks of the TIn Man.
just dont expect me to buy in.

3-Yes, Im with you on the job.
I actually like going to work. It gives me a sense of accomplishment each day and it provides a steady income so that I can live the life I want to live.
richi asked me earlier if I had shown a profit for the year, and if so, why I would not quit my job and live off of my wagering earnings.
Well,
I have managed to be profitbale this year.
I feel pretty damn good about that also considering where I was at this time 24 months ago.
but the thing is, my "profit" for 2006 is about $1300 US dollars.
now, I dont know about you or anyone else, but I damn sure can not live of $1300 a year(or 9 months, or whatever).
I spend that much on DVD's each year.

I appreciate your response Gander.


Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by merasmag

but only 1300 bucks profit? surely u gest, good sir

no,
Im being honest merasmag.
Im not some great handicapper who can quit my job and do this for a living.

merasmag,
2 years ago when I was in school my dad had to freaking fund my youbet account several times a year.
I sucked.

I have practiced a ton.
I have learned to manage money better.
and I have learned to play to my strengths.

My good friend Dixie once said they play the National Anthem every day and I took more from that line than just about anything I have ever read on the internet.

I am now much more disciplined.
85% of all races I play are on the turf, or at least were originally carded for the turf.
I only bet w/p and pick 4's.
and I have a budget for each pick 4(its pretty low).

I have found that I am most effective and most profitiable when I stick to a few basic rules regarding what I am going to play.
but dont misunderstand me.
I handicap every day and handicap a variety of tracks, even tracks like Emerald that have no turf and I know I probably will not place a dollar.
Im trying constantly to get better.

I have a long way to go, but at least now I know it.



Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by merasmag

where, i don't know, but far-sweet dreams (p.s. it is your time but i would suggest just cappin the turf...that way you're only "losing" half as much by not betting)

thanks pal.

now, Im going to bed so that I can get some sleep so I can keep my job so I dont have to live off of the $1300 I win annually at the track.
later.


Repent

[repent]

oh,
one more thing on the whole Tin Man subject.
all this talk about he being the best American turf horse is absurd.
hes not even the best west coast middle distance turf horse.
Lava Man and TH Approval would both run hm into the ground.


Repent