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#1
03-04-2010, 09:36 PM
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If the Derbydreamer contest does not go off well and people are skeptical in its first month, they will be hard pressed to get people to buy stables for future months. And you will have to buy stables in future months to have a chance at winning, especially when they start adding horses to the available draft pool and the Kentucky Derby and Grade 1 Triple Crown races start up. Their selling point featured in their commercials about a $1 per month is a joke and I can't imagine any stable purchased now having a chance come May (unless maybe if you are one of the admins). Maybe Steve Byk can try to get someone from Vinery on ATR to discuss the game and ease everyone's skepticism. There have to be a number of DT handicappers who bought Derbydreamer stables -- of course, the cost of purchasing a Derbydreamer stable is nothing compared to what some of us wager in a week. 
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#2
03-06-2010, 10:55 PM
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I am about 2,000 points behind the leader. I still have Christina Daae, D'Funnybone, Eskendereya and/or Rule, Tuscan Evening, and Zenyatta left to run in March (assuming they all stay healthy and Christina Daae runs on 3/20 or 3/27). I wonder how many stables in front of me have both Eskendereya and Rule and whether Pletcher's decision of who runs in the Florida Derby will determine who wins the March contest. DrugS looks like he is about 1,000 ahead of me since he probably had Jeranimo (good call on his 4th place finish in a 14-horse Grade 1 field).
Looks like there are some identical stables out there among the leaders where Referral points may make a difference. Also, many of the leaders have multiple stables at the top of the standings -- probably would not be in the best interest of the game if the same person won more than one prize. I couldn't pull the trigger on Crisp in my TVG Fantasy stable, so I am well behind the leaders there. I guess I just did not see Blind Luck losing and Crisp having a shot at 60 points.
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#3
03-06-2010, 11:37 PM
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I had Crisp in 7 of 8 stables - and she was only used in 127 stables before the race and 128 after the race. I had Misremembered in 7 different stables and he was used on just 245. If a horse like Ice Box (in just 39 stables) or Pulsion (in just 41) somehow wins the Fla Derby ... and I don't finish in the top 3 ... I will feel like I spent $86 betting on a WWF wrestling match.
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#4
03-06-2010, 11:07 PM
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I'm still not convinced this contest is kosher. Everything has scored for me OK, but that's not the issue. The leader currently has 10,672 points- which sounded awfully high to me given that a fair number of horses aren't even available for selection (for example, the top two finishers in the Kilroe.) I looked at the stakes today to determine the maximum available points to date (assuming that allowance/claiming results are really irrelevant given the point structure):
Big Cap- G1 misremembered 2500 jeranimo 1000 SA Oaks- G1 crisp 2500 blind luck 1500 cozie rosie 500 Sham- G3 alphies 500 setsuko 400 the program 300 Palm Beach- G3 paddy 500 dean's 400 asphalt 200 bim bam 100 Herecomesthebride- G3 --- Gotham- G3 awesome act 500 nacho friend 300 turf melody 200 shrimp dancer 100 Toboggan- G3 custom for carlos 400 Azeri- G3 --- Razorback- G3 gone astray 300 Cappy golden ghost 225 Pasadena mmfm 375 macias 300 alfarabi 225 runaway bandido 75 gentilly heavenville 300 So given these results, the MAXIMUM point value for 12 horses today would have been 10,575- Misremembered 2500 Crisp 2500 Blind Luck 1500 Jeranimo 1000 Alphies 500 Awesome Act 500 Cozie Rosie 500 Paddy O' 500 Setsuko 400 Dean's Kitten 400 Custom for Carlos 400 Make Music for Me 375 In essence, he would have had to use ALL of his horses today, and not only that but select the absolute best possible outcome (or very close to it, given the maximum jockey points to date is about 300.) It seems statistically unlikely that someone would (a) actually use all of their horses on the first day, and (b) have the correct outcome with it.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#5
03-06-2010, 11:26 PM
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Not only that .... but Crisp was added to a stable right after her Gr 1 win .. yet no other horse on page #1 of the most commonly selected horses saw a +1 bump.
If you remember that a new stable must add 18 horses ...That is as shady as hell. Even if someone added Crisp after her win .. don't they have to take 17 other horses with her?
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#6
03-06-2010, 11:37 PM
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I was very happy with my three starters/results today (3rd with Blind Luck, 3rd with Battle of Hastings, and 1st with Misremembered, so in essence 3 of the top 4 possible point earners) but when I saw the leaderboard I was somewhat dismayed. I understand working out the bugs- but this seems really fishy. How did you do?
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#7
03-06-2010, 11:43 PM
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She's hopeless.
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#8
03-07-2010, 12:04 AM
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This was going into the gate:  This was after the race was offical:  Blind Luck stayed at 680 after the race ... and to the best of my memory no other horse on the entire page one got bumped up +1.
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#9
03-07-2010, 01:32 AM
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The thing is, even if Phil and Drugs is right, which I'm not disputing, it would seem pretty stupid to create an entry like this via cheating, especially as there are still races left to be run.
They simply have to make stables public once the month starts.
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