2/12-14: Derby Future Wager - Pool 1

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just a couple of comments...

Last year was unusual with just 5 horses from Pool 1 making it to the starting gate. The year before 12 horses made it. The average number since 2000 (I don't have info on the first year, 1999) is 8.6 horses from Pool 1 made it to the starting gate.

Also, I don't think they started the exactas until Pool 2 last year.

--Dunbar

Just from an odds standpoint even if 10 horses make it to the gate this year that's 9 less horses he has to beat.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Just from an odds standpoint even if 10 horses make it to the gate this year that's 9 less horses he has to beat.

I agree. I just don't see an immediate way to weigh the extra odds you get with the chance your horse might win and you still not get paid. In the example I gave in my first response, you can do a direct comparison of odds. I don't see an immediate way to do that with what you're proposing.

--Dunbar

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree. I just don't see an immediate way to weigh the extra odds you get with the chance your horse might win and you still not get paid. In the example I gave in my first response, you can do a direct comparison of odds. I don't see an immediate way to do that with what you're proposing.

--Dunbar

I didn't think of weighing the odds of the case in which he wins but now that you mention it I would view it as follows:
He pays $50 if he wins the race and roughly $170 if all others finish 2nd on a $2 exacta.
The odds of all others winning the race is 3-2. If those odds are true then an equivalent value for a $2 exacta for all others to finish 2nd would be $75.
The bottom line that I see is that if you like a horse the chances to cash a ticket are better when putting him underneath all others in the exacta than betting him to win.