Show Parlay

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

Slow day at work and I have read most of this thread. I have been intrigued by parlays in the past so here goes. As you will see by the amount of these picks in one night I am much less selective. I am going to try to get away from having so many $2.10 and $2.20 payoffs so that when I do hit the parlay it may be a bit more substantial. I have also come up with the arbitrary figure of stopping the parlay after 5 hits, and I also feel I should check on how much running straight show wagers on these as well would return. The odd part is I am strictly an exotics player rarely playing W/P/S or even exactas. So will put these out there to see what happens. These all are for tomorrow night start in chronological order:
ded1 hit the road lee
ct1 her name is rio
ct2 kizzie legacy
pen4 iris proverb
hou1 cromwell
ct3 jewels frolic
hou2 last chip
ct4 beboppin betty
pen6 sweet bama breeze
ded5 bubbaslittlesister
hou3 ww conquistador
pen7 sunday prospector
ded6 lonestarchamp
ct6 osage county
hou4 elite access
pen8 bobby and bob
ded7 puppysnewdaddy
ct7 sky can fly
hou5 all there
ded8 sefapiano jr
ct8 seek silver
hou6 rovina
ded9 cold and windswept
ded10 man in command

so will keep track of straight bets, look for 5 in a row, then start new 5, or start new after bustouts. I will most likely disappear from this thread if these suck or may fine tune if shows promise.

Welcome to the thread, MrG.

If you compare a $100 parlay scheme, like you propose, to betting $100 on each race to show, you will end up making many fewer bets with the parlay. But for the same "X" dollars bet, it won't change your average result. The only advantage to the parlay is that you get more bang for your buck.

It's good you're planning to keep track of results on every race as well as the parlay. You get a better idea of whether you're beating the track take by looking at the complete set of bets as equal bets than by the parlay results.

Good luck.

--Dunbar

[MISTERGEE]

Thanks Dunbar,

with any bad handicapping tonight it may be a short stay. As far as keeping track of parlays and straight bets, yes with parlays you are risking less but if I see I am picking lets say 4 out of 5 but never hitting the parlay we need to see if the payoff is high enough to warrant the straight bet only or maybe as well as the parlays. It will be fun anyway.

[MISTERGEE]

well, hit two 5 horse parlays and did actually have 11 in a row at one time. Of the 22 picks that were left after scratches 10 horses finished first and 7 horses placed 5 were out of the money of which 4 were from Charlestown (maybe no more Charlestown). On straight bets $51.60 show return on $44 in plays. $61.20 return if you played them all to win. $62.80 return on place. So thats $7.60 show, $18.80 place, and $17.20 win in profit per $2 wagered. On the 2 parlays that were hit this was the sequence:

2.80, 2.20, 2.60, 2.40, 4.00
then
2.80, 3.80, 3.60, 2.60, 2.60 finished with a $6.00 show for the eleventh in a row

plug in whatever amount you would start with to figure the parlay payoff.
it comes out to a nice return, again without Charlestown even better, 7 winners and 7 place out of 15 picks, but with still good
so it was fun and showed a nice profit too for this night, the first $100 show parlay would return profit of $380.40, the second was profit of $708.60. believe it or not mathematically the 10 horse parlay would have returned about $8000 on a $100 starting wager but obviously due to pool size and bet effects you could never start with this large of a bet amount

[Dunbar]

Bet #2 in current round: Rachel Alexandra to show $105 (FairGrounds)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Bet #2 in current round: Rachel Alexandra to show $105 (FairGrounds)

Result: paid $2.10. $105 bet returns $110.


--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Result: paid $2.10. $105 bet returns $110.

Bet #3 in current round.

$110 to show on Zenyatta in Apple Blossom. I'll be surprised if they have show betting, though.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Bet #3 in current round.

$110 to show on Zenyatta in Apple Blossom. I'll be surprised if they have show betting, though.

No show betting.



--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Bet #3 in current round. Bankroll = $110

$110 to show on Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne


--Dunbar