Early Breeders' Cup Projections...

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I see you slipped this foolishness in late. Don't tell Miesque or any of the " girls ", you know like All Along ( trained by Biancone ), this silliness especially when it comes to grass racing. Frankly, the Europeans do it with success all the time.

We'll see...once in a blue moon do fillies CONSISTENTLY defeat males....How many Arc winners have been female versus males?....Ahhh, not many - just like there have been a few female Derby winners but they are by far in the minority....Miesque was SPECIAL...Hell, maybe even a filly like Divine Proportions was special last year and may have been able to win the Mile had she not gotten hurt....Gorella is not that kind of mare...shes not...

Exciting and easy to cheer for, yes...but a Miesque she is not....

I can also name a claimer that won the Derby...it happens every now and again - but so does a solar eclipse....

[blackthroatedwind]

Consistently? We're talking about one race here...one that fillies have had more than their fair share of success in. And the Derby? Well, considering we had two fillies win it in the 80s, and very few try it since, I don't think it is a good example for you. Obviously most don't match up, but those that do, more than hold their own.

Nobody is saying that fillies are better than colts on average...who would? But using the filly/mare argument as to why Gorella shouldn't run in the BC Mile ( a race she arguably could have won last year with a fair trip ) is poor at best.

Methinks you're starting to grasp at straws.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Consistently? We're talking about one race here...one that fillies have had more than their fair share of success in. And the Derby? Well, considering we had two fillies win it in the 80s, and very few try it since, I don't think it is a good example for you. Obviously most don't match up, but those that do, more than hold their own.

Nobody is saying that fillies are better than colts on average...who would? But using the filly/mare argument as to why Gorella shouldn't run in the BC Mile ( a race she arguably could have won last year with a fair trip ) is poor at best.

Methinks you're starting to grasp at straws.

I'm just arguing that based on my analysis she is better suited to win the F&M Turf...you are arguing the opposite....Obviously, one of the big factors for me is that she would be running against her own kind - which I value because I understand the difference....

Last year's Mile was horrible....you may have a different opinion and you are entitled to it, but I thought it before and after the race and I was unimpressed with Gorella's race....sorry, not impressed.....I am an Artie fan because I own a couple fo El Prado mares and he is likeable, but he is what he is and has lost more bad races in the last two years to make it evident that he is far from a classic....

Not reaching for straws here because I think we are both wasting each others time here....to be honest with you, if she preps in the Galaxy - I don't think she'll win either race - so we need to move on and discuss another horse..

Lets talk about why you think Commentator will win the BC Sprint after watching him throw up the other day....I think Henny Hughes is twice the horse....

[blackthroatedwind]

No problem disagreeing about which race she is better suited for, you have made your points and I've made mine, so stop adding unnecessary foolishness that only detracts from your opinion. We can agree to disagree about which race she is better suited for and I do not necessarily disagree that she will be up against it in this year's mile. Are you sure, however, that you want to stand by the opinion that she will lose the Galaxy? Come on.

As for Commentator, THAT is a rooting " opinion ". I love Commentator and Nick is a very good friend so I am simply going with my heart. I do feel on his good days that he is as good a horse as there is in the world but I also recognize that he has had more than his share of injuries and they may have taken their toll. I also realize that his performance in the Forego was a very possible indicator that he cannot rate but being that he stumbled very badly at the start of that race I think it's wise to give him one more chance before discarding him. He is an absolute monster on his good day...and he's had more than a few of them.

As for Henny Hughes...he's a very good horse and only a fool would deny that. I also think he certainly is one of the major contendors for the BC Sprint at this point. However, winning against a four horse field and then beating a mediocre field in the King's Bishop, where his chief competitor ( Mach Ride ) stumbled horrifically at the break and then was completely shut off at the top of the stretch when attempting to rerally, does not legitimize Henny Hughes just yet to me. I am eager to see the Vosburgh, I have no idea what Commentator's status is, as Nick has been in KY and my only contact with him was to briefly congratulate him on winning the Brooklyn, but I look forward to Henny's race there regardless. No doubt he's a good horse, but, I still need to see more.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No problem disagreeing about which race she is better suited for, you have made your points and I've made mine, so stop adding unnecessary foolishness that only detracts from your opinion. We can agree to disagree about which race she is better suited for and I do not necessarily disagree that she will be up against it in this year's mile. Are you sure, however, that you want to stand by the opinion that she will lose the Galaxy? Come on.

As for Commentator, THAT is a rooting " opinion ". I love Commentator and Nick is a very good friend so I am simply going with my heart. I do feel on his good days that he is as good a horse as there is in the world but I also recognize that he has had more than his share of injuries and they may have taken their toll. I also realize that his performance in the Forego was a very possible indicator that he cannot rate but being that he stumbled very badly at the start of that race I think it's wise to give him one more chance before discarding him. He is an absolute monster on his good day...and he's had more than a few of them.

As for Henny Hughes...he's a very good horse and only a fool would deny that. I also think he certainly is one of the major contendors for the BC Sprint at this point. However, winning against a four horse field and then beating a mediocre field in the King's Bishop, where his chief competitor ( Mach Ride ) stumbled horrifically at the break and then was completely shut off at the top of the stretch when attempting to rerally, does not legitimize Henny Hughes just yet to me. I am eager to see the Vosburgh, I have no idea what Commentator's status is, as Nick has been in KY and my only contact with him was to briefly congratulate him on winning the Brooklyn, but I look forward to Henny's race there regardless. No doubt he's a good horse, but, I still need to see more.

I never said she'll ose the Galaxy...it'll be a matter of how far in that race..I said that if she preps in the Galaxy - which she is - then I do not like her chances in either the MILE or the F&M TURF..my reasoning is that knwoing CD's turf course well and seeing patterns of how KEE horses run on it after they run at KEE - I don't like the fact she'll be prepping over that surface at that distance if she wants to run 1 3/8 miles in the F&M Turf.....and I don't like her in the Mile anyways, so it really doesn't matter where she preps to me...the decision to run in the Galaxy only affected my decision that I no longer like her as much for her preparartion if she were to run in the F&M Turf....I would have liked to see her win the Flower Bowl going into the F&M Trf...thats what I would have done with her and you always have to think that way as a handicapper - at least i have had succes doing so...

But I NEVER Said tha she woud lose the Galaxy...she'll be 1-2 in the wagering there....

As for your Commentator remarks...good stuff...I agree with most of it..he is a good horse and great when on his game, but I am afraid that he is a horse that has to have things his own way to a large degree, which isn't a successful formula for winning a race like the BC Sprint when he will indeed be pushed hard and will have o rate at some point in the race....I think seven furlongs is his best game, and if he remains sound to next year's Met Mile then I think he would be really tough in a race like that....

I actually bet him in his last race and I rarely take chalk...so it goes to show you that I thought he was the goods too, but I was obviously wrong...

As for the 'silly foolishness' or whatever comments...not sure what thats all about.....these are opinions, not digs...

[repent]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

We'll see...once in a blue moon do fillies CONSISTENTLY defeat males....How many Arc winners have been female versus males?....Ahhh, not many - just like there have been a few female Derby winners but they are by far in the minority....Miesque was SPECIAL...Hell, maybe even a filly like Divine Proportions was special last year and may have been able to win the Mile had she not gotten hurt....Gorella is not that kind of mare...shes not...

Exciting and easy to cheer for, yes...but a Miesque she is not....

I can also name a claimer that won the Derby...it happens every now and again - but so does a solar eclipse....

I agree that females are usually up against it when facing males, but the Arc is a bad example to use.
its a race, b/c of its location on the racing calender that allows females to be very competitive.
I dont know the exact numbers,
but females have won the Arc over the past 3 decades or so at a fairly high rate.
here is a go-
Urban Sea(dam of Galileo)
Detroit(love the name)
Allez France
Three Troikas
San San
Gold River(beat April Run in that running of the Arc)
Akiyda(AK horse)
All Along

Im sure there are more and plenty more that have run well.

now,
that obviously does not mean they have been dominant or even on equal terms with the males, but
it does show that they can win at Longchamp.
certainly the top Euro femal middle distance runners are more competitive than their American counterparts have been in race like the BCC or JCGC.


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