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#6
11-20-2009, 01:20 PM
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Quote:
This race is likely to be the ball-buster of the contest so far.I estimate 80% of the picks will come from this race with 50% on the #5,15% on the #2,10% on the #4 and 5% or less on the 1 and 3.(I may be woefully wrong about these estimates.) #1 Lindelaan ships in for Clement and has "wait till they come back to me" Gomez up. In the last 5 years shipping to socal Clement is all starters) 22% win 55% itm turf starters) 20% win 54% itm turf sprinters) 6% win 35% itm Positives-finished a decent third in her last start which was a sprint. Negatives-limited sprint experience,shipping to a course she's never tried and no local works. #2 Rainbow's Song Positives-5 for 5 itm sprinting,her only turf start was her last and finished a good 2nd after setting the pace,doesn't have to be on the lead to win or to run well. Negatives-No experience over the Hollywood turf....She lost an uncontested lead in her last and is facing the same horse who was closing in on her late(Annihilation,who is 2 for 2 over the Hollywood course and 4 for 4 itm in turf sprints.)That race was at 6 1/2 downhill with Mig aboard and although she lost a clear lead she still finished in front of Annihilation going 6 1/2.Rosario has the mount today.(just the fact,not a negative) #3 Royal Taat Positives-Closing sprinter who is coming off of a tough route(0 for 3 itm at a route) and is back at a preferred distance,albeit 8 for 14 itm sprinting.2 for 2 itm over the course. Her last three starts sprinting she has faced the favorite,Reba Is Tops and was in a dead heat with her in June over this course,beaten by her at Del Mar going 5 furlongs and finished in front of her downhill before her most recent race at the route.Bejarano/Sadler. Negatives-Spotty record,8 for 14 itm sprinting,worst in the field.Pace disadvantage in a small field,although she has performed well in this situation before.Will be in a match race with Gomez for last place honors early. #4 Annihilation Positives-Always seems to fire sprinting,2 for 2 over the Hollywood course and 4 for 4 itm in turf sprints.3yo filly has the most upside in the field. Negatives-Just beaten by Rainbow's Song at SA when that one was fading on an uncontested lead,however she wasn't too far off of that pace herself.She not only needs to turn the tables on Rainbow's Song but must outperform two other solid Hollywood course sprinters in Royal Taat and Reba Is Tops.Espinosa is cold as ice so far this meet. #5 Reba Is Tops Positives-17 of 19 itm lifetime.6 of 7 itm sprinting on the turf.2 for 2 itm on the course. Never run two consecutive poor races.Dropping into lesser company. Negatives-Her most recent race she was out of the money for the first time in two years and was outfinished by Royal Taat,though that one benefitted from a fast pace. Reba Is Tops,Rainbow's Song and Annihilation will be dictating how this race will pan out which to me is the most difficult part.Two lightly raced fillies who are unproven against the quality of a horse like Reba who has been a bridesmaid to Gotta Have Her.If Royal Taat runs her best one of the top three will be out and it could be any of them.Reba is now five years old and in her last she was chasing two horses who are faster than any of these and while the pace was kind to Gotta Have Her and Royal Taat the two pacesetters outfinished Reba. Reba Is Tops is the obvious choice here. However there are two improving (and perhaps three if the #1 shows up) fillies in this race,two of which have similar running styles as Reba. While both she and Royal Taat each have a Graded stakes placing on their resume I can't help wondering if her humble beginning, $12,000 claimer, rags to riches career has reached a peak. My choice- Look for another race. Last edited by Port Conway Lane : 11-20-2009 at 01:56 PM. 
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#7
11-20-2009, 01:46 PM
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For a 5 horse field it's a very interesting race. You did forget to mention that for Lindelaan, it's her 2nd start of the layoff and she returned in a race where she had trouble most of the way.
The 2 & 5 kind of have the same style and most likely both will be near the front. I'm leaning toward including the 5 over the 2 based on her backclass. As far as the 4 goes, i'm just not sure if she's fast enough for this group. I'm not sure about the 3, I think the only thing I like about the horse is the connections. Out of stakes company, but I still think I'm tossing.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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