11/11 ATR: The Great HOTY Debate

[joeydb]

That caller "John" got my blood pressure going too. Unbelievable. Of course he's entitled to his opinion, but that last bit about the result being the same no matter who Zenyatta faced on whatever surface -- absurd.

Would that have worked with other horses? "I mean, take out Gio Ponte and substitute Secretariat...what's the big deal?"

[Kasept]

It's rather remarkable how a singular performance can somehow promote complete abandonment of rationality. Zenyatta's performance was terrific... But take it for what it was, where it was and who it came against. How it magically elevates her 'year' to equal or beyond that of Rachel Alexandra's defies logic or cognition.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's rather remarkable how a singular performance can somehow promote complete abandonment of rationality. Zenyatta's performance was terrific... But take it for what it was, where it was and who it came against. How it magically elevates her 'year' to equal or beyond that of Rachel Alexandra's defies logic or cognition.

Pretty astounding isn't it....

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's rather remarkable how a singular performance can somehow promote complete abandonment of rationality. Zenyatta's performance was terrific... But take it for what it was, where it was and who it came against. How it magically elevates her 'year' to equal or beyond that of Rachel Alexandra's defies logic or cognition.

[citycat]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's rather remarkable how a singular performance can somehow promote complete abandonment of rationality. Zenyatta's performance was terrific... But take it for what it was, where it was and who it came against. How it magically elevates her 'year' to equal or beyond that of Rachel Alexandra's defies logic or cognition.

But horse racing is not logical. If it were then the favorites would win every horse race and we would not have the need for betting. I find it odd that people are trying to put HOY into such a logical box. It could be compared to MVP voting in other sports in that the statistical leaders do not always win MVP and there is always the debate of what "valuable" means.

I do not think there is a definition of HOY just as there is not a definition of MVP. Both horses are great choices of HOY and the choice does not have to be logical. There is subjectivity involved in which horse will win HOY and people will say that Zenyatta's "moment" was more powerful than RA and that is OK.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by citycat

But horse racing is not logical. If it were then the favorites would win every horse race and we would not have the need for betting. I find it odd that people are trying to put HOY into such a logical box. It could be compared to MVP voting in other sports in that the statistical leaders do not always win MVP and there is always the debate of what "valuable" means.

I do not think there is a definition of HOY just as there is not a definition of MVP. Both horses are great choices of HOY and the choice does not have to be logical. There is subjectivity involved in which horse will win HOY and people will say that Zenyatta's "moment" was more powerful than RA and that is OK.

WTF......Objectivity is how we are to judge. Subjective means Well Armed's Dubai World Cup, the richest race in the world), should make him HOY.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

WTF......Objectivity is how we are to judge. Subjective means Well Armed's Dubai World Cup, the richest race in the world), should make him HOY.

I doubt Trevor Denman will ever say this about the girls:

"She’s run another clunker"

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by citycat

But horse racing is not logical. If it were then the favorites would win every horse race and we would not have the need for betting. I find it odd that people are trying to put HOY into such a logical box. It could be compared to MVP voting in other sports in that the statistical leaders do not always win MVP and there is always the debate of what "valuable" means.

I do not think there is a definition of HOY just as there is not a definition of MVP. Both horses are great choices of HOY and the choice does not have to be logical. There is subjectivity involved in which horse will win HOY and people will say that Zenyatta's "moment" was more powerful than RA and that is OK.

Perhaps we should beg for a new eclipse award Horse of the Moment..

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Perhaps we should beg for a new eclipse award Horse of the Moment..

I like that idea....Black Beauty for me.

[slotdirt]

There's already an ESPY for this.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

There's already an ESPY for this.

Best Performance By A Mare On Carpet Fibers----handed out by Pollard's Vision disciple Stewart Scott.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by citycat

I do not think there is a definition of HOY just as there is not a definition of MVP. Both horses are great choices of HOY and the choice does not have to be logical. There is subjectivity involved in which horse will win HOY and people will say that Zenyatta's "moment" was more powerful than RA and that is OK.

There is a definition of Horse of the Year. It's the horse that accomplished the most over the course of their season. There may be tangential influences, but the race record compiled and gravity thereof remains the overwhelming criteria. There is no possible interpretation of their comparative seasons that places Zenyatta even at a level of equality with Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

[Kasept]

For those wanting some detail to appreciate the nuances of the campaigns...

Zenyatta ran in 5 races this year over 7 months (May 23-Nov 7) over 3 racetracks versus 33 entrants (25 horses)... 4 of which were repeats of races she ran in and won last year (Milady, Vanity, Hirsch, Lady's Secret) and one the Breeders' Cup Classic. She never left California in the 4 races and the Cup happened to be at one of the tracks she frequented most in her career (5/5). Anyway, she won all the races in which she ran, all on synthetic surfaces, and with authority.

Rachel Alexandra ran in 8 races this year over 7 months (Feb 15-Sept 5) over 7 different race tracks versus 50 entrants (47 horses). She demolished her own sex by a cumulative 40 lengths in 5 tries including 2 Oaks (Fair Grounds and Kentucky) and faced 3yo males twice, including in an American classic (Preakness) and in another highly regarded Gr. I (Haskell). She completed her year against older males in the Gr. I Woodward. Her winning a race versus elder males is an accomplishment that hadn't been done in more than 125 years in American racing.


Zenyatta beat these 25 horses in 2009:

---14 females---
Life Is Sweet (3X)
Allicansayiswow (2X)
Gambler's Justice
Champagne Eyes (2X)
Taste's Sis
Briecat (2X)
Dawn After Dawn (2X)
Hot n' Dusty
Modification
Anabaas Creation (2X)
Lethal Heat (2X)
Tidal Dance
Cocoa Beach
Made for Magic
----11 males----
Gio Ponti
Twice Over
Summer Bird
Colonel John
Richard's Kid
Awesome Gem
Regal Ransom
Mine That Bird
Rip Van Winkle
Einstein
Girolamo


Rachel Alexandra beat these 47 horses in 2009:

---23 females---
Afleet Deceit (2X)
Peach Brew
Affirmed Truth
Hello Again
Lake Lugano
My Spanx
Lil' Hottie
Bootprints
Flying Spur (2X)
Our Dahlia
Four Gifts
African Skies
War Tigress
Just Jenda
Bon Jovi Girl
Cats
Stone Legacy
Be Fair
Nan
Gabby's Golden Gal
Tweeter
Malibu Prayer
Flashing
---24 males---
Mine That Bird
Musket Man
Flying Private
Big Drama
Papa Clem (2X)
Terrain
Luv Gov
General Quarters
Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile
Tone It Down
Take the Points
Summer Bird
Munnings
Duke of Mischief
Atomic Rain
Bunker Hill
Macho Again
Bullsbay
Asiatic Boy
It's a Bird
Past the Point
Cool Coal Man
Da' Tara

[hockey2315]

Very nice post, Steve.

[slotdirt]

I'm disinclined to make the efforts to compare these two fields, but who beat more GI winners? G2? Overall stakes winners?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm disinclined to make the efforts to compare these two fields, but who beat more GI winners? G2? Overall stakes winners?

dont know.. but there were tons of stakes winners and GI winners in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward. And considering Rachel faced twice as many horses I imagine rachel has faced more.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Kasept

For those wanting some detail to appreciate the nuances of the campaigns...

Zenyatta ran in 5 races this year over 7 months (May 23-Nov 7) over 3 racetracks versus 33 entrants (25 horses)... 4 of which were repeats of races she ran in and won last year (Milady, Vanity, Hirsch, Lady's Secret) and one the Breeders' Cup Classic. She never left California in the 4 races and the Cup happened to be at one of the tracks she frequented most in her career (5/5). Anyway, she won all the races in which she ran, all on synthetic surfaces, and with authority.

Rachel Alexandra ran in 8 races this year over 7 months (Feb 15-Sept 5) over 7 different race tracks versus 50 entrants (47 horses). She demolished her own sex by a cumulative 40 lengths in 5 tries including 2 Oaks (Fair Grounds and Kentucky) and faced 3yo males twice, including in an American classic (Preakness) and in another highly regarded Gr. I (Haskell). She completed her year against older males in the Gr. I Woodward. Her winning a race versus elder males is an accomplishment that hadn't been done in more than 125 years in American racing.


Zenyatta beat these 25 horses in 2009:

---14 females---
Life Is Sweet (3X) - 2009 GI WInner
Allicansayiswow (2X) - 2009 G2 placed
Gambler's Justice - 2009 Listed Stakes placed
Champagne Eyes (2X) - 2009 Listed Stakes winner
Taste's Sis - 2009 MSW winner
Briecat (2X) - 2009 Listed Stakes winner
Dawn After Dawn (2X) - 2009 Listed Stakes winner
Hot n' Dusty - 2009 AOC winner
Modification -
Anabaas Creation (2X) - 2009 G1 placed
Lethal Heat (2X) - 2009 G1 placed
Tidal Dance
Cocoa Beach
Made for Magic - 2009 CLM winner
----11 males----
Gio Ponti - 2009 GI winner
Twice Over - 2009 GI winner
Summer Bird - 2009 GI winner
Colonel John - 2009 Listed Stakes winner
Richard's Kid - 2009 GI winner
Awesome Gem - 2009 G2 winner
Regal Ransom - 2009 GI winner
Mine That Bird - 2009 GI winner
Rip Van Winkle - 2009 GI winner
Einstein - 2009 GI winner
Girolamo - 2009 G2 winner


Rachel Alexandra beat these 47 horses in 2009:

---23 females---
Afleet Deceit (2X) - 2009 G2 placed
Peach Brew - 2009 G3 winner
Affirmed Truth
Hello Again
Lake Lugano
My Spanx
Lil' Hottie
Bootprints
Flying Spur (2X) - 2009G2 placed
Our Dahlia - 2009 ALW winner
Four Gifts - 2009 G3 winner
African Skies
War Tigress
Just Jenda - 2009 G3 winner
Bon Jovi Girl - 2009 G2 placed
Cats
Stone Legacy - 2009 GI placed
Be Fair - 2009 G3 winner
Nan - 2009 GI placed
Gabby's Golden Gal - 2009 GI winner
Tweeter - 2009 MSW winner
Malibu Prayer - 2009 Stakes winner
Flashing - 2009 GI winner
---24 males---
Mine That Bird - 2009 GI winner
Musket Man - 2009 G2 winner
Flying Private - 2009 G2 placed
Big Drama - 2009 Stakes winner
Papa Clem (2X) - 2009 G2 winner
Terrain - 2009 G2 placed (and deceased)
Luv Gov
General Quarters - 2009 G1 winner
Friesan Fire - 2009 G2 winner
Pioneerof the Nile - 2009 GI winner
Tone It Down
Take the Points - 2009 G1 winner
Summer Bird - 2009 GI winner
Munnings - 2009 G2 winner
Duke of Mischief - 2009 Stakes winner
Atomic Rain - 2009 Listed Stakes winner
Bunker Hill - 2009 Stakes placed
Macho Again - 2009 GI winner
Bullsbay - 2009 GI winner
Asiatic Boy - 2009 GI placed
It's a Bird - 2009 G2 winner (well, sort of)
Past the Point - 2009 G3 placed
Cool Coal Man -
Da' Tara

I'm sure someone already covered this, but that's the best I could figure in so far as the relative qualifications of horses faced by both Z and Rachel.

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by Kasept

For those wanting some detail to appreciate the nuances of the campaigns...

Zenyatta ran in 5 races this year over 7 months (May 23-Nov 7) over 3 racetracks versus 33 entrants (25 horses)... 4 of which were repeats of races she ran in and won last year (Milady, Vanity, Hirsch, Lady's Secret) and one the Breeders' Cup Classic. She never left California in the 4 races and the Cup happened to be at one of the tracks she frequented most in her career (5/5). Anyway, she won all the races in which she ran, all on synthetic surfaces, and with authority.

Rachel Alexandra ran in 8 races this year over 7 months (Feb 15-Sept 5) over 7 different race tracks versus 50 entrants (47 horses). She demolished her own sex by a cumulative 40 lengths in 5 tries including 2 Oaks (Fair Grounds and Kentucky) and faced 3yo males twice, including in an American classic (Preakness) and in another highly regarded Gr. I (Haskell). She completed her year against older males in the Gr. I Woodward. Her winning a race versus elder males is an accomplishment that hadn't been done in more than 125 years in American racing.


Zenyatta beat these 25 horses in 2009:

---14 females---
Life Is Sweet (3X)
Allicansayiswow (2X)
Gambler's Justice
Champagne Eyes (2X)
Taste's Sis
Briecat (2X)
Dawn After Dawn (2X)
Hot n' Dusty
Modification
Anabaas Creation (2X)
Lethal Heat (2X)
Tidal Dance
Cocoa Beach
Made for Magic
----11 males----
Gio Ponti
Twice Over
Summer Bird
Colonel John
Richard's Kid
Awesome Gem
Regal Ransom
Mine That Bird
Rip Van Winkle
Einstein
Girolamo


Rachel Alexandra beat these 47 horses in 2009:

---23 females---
Afleet Deceit (2X)
Peach Brew
Affirmed Truth
Hello Again
Lake Lugano
My Spanx
Lil' Hottie
Bootprints
Flying Spur (2X)
Our Dahlia
Four Gifts
African Skies
War Tigress
Just Jenda
Bon Jovi Girl
Cats
Stone Legacy
Be Fair
Nan
Gabby's Golden Gal
Tweeter
Malibu Prayer
Flashing
---24 males---
Mine That Bird
Musket Man
Flying Private
Big Drama
Papa Clem (2X)
Terrain
Luv Gov
General Quarters
Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile
Tone It Down
Take the Points
Summer Bird
Munnings
Duke of Mischief
Atomic Rain
Bunker Hill
Macho Again
Bullsbay
Asiatic Boy
It's a Bird
Past the Point
Cool Coal Man
Da' Tara

Call me convinced. But just to be clear, the award is non restrictive and RA and Z each faced all comers only once this year?

That 125 year accomplishment is impressive, but how much more than being the first female to win the Classic? And while interesting, is it more about what racing has become for older males?

[10 pnt move up]

wow, that list of horses RA beat is a who's who of no ones, I guess Macho Again is ok, and Summer Bird is solid, beyond that, MTB?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There is a definition of Horse of the Year. It's the horse that accomplished the most over the course of their season. There may be tangential influences, but the race record compiled and gravity thereof remains the overwhelming criteria. There is no possible interpretation of their comparative seasons that places Zenyatta even at a level of equality with Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

I thought I heard Jon White on ATR explain it differently, it is simply who one thinks is 'Horse of the Year'. I'll have to review the show when I get home but that is how I thought he termed it.