Zenyatta

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

I honestly don't see how anything they do could change your opinion of how Zenyatta will run in the Classic.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I honestly don't see how anything they do could change your opinion of how Zenyatta will run in the Classic.

I think they are both a great measuring stick of Zenyatta's form .. Life Is Sweet has been racing just behind Zen earlier and not quite finishing with her ... Leathal Heat has been racing a few lengths in front of Zen earlier ... and not quite finishing good enough.

If LIS and LH run a dominant 1-2 in that order .. I think it makes Zenyatta a little harder to strongly oppose.

However .. if LIS and LH both are soundly beaten and off the board ... I think it really takes some steam away from the rabid argument that Zenyatta's recent form looks markedly worse than it actually is.

I've had a lot of success over the years adjusting my opinion in situations like this. If you don't buy into it... that's fine with me. There's a lot of things I buy into even more kooky than something like that.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

zenyatta will lose.....

[JBJake]

IF Z does win, what is the the opinion of the forum? Smith said she only ran about 3 strides her last race and granted it was the same old same old she was beating but it looked pretty impressive. Typically, synthetic does not lead to large margin wins and with her style it does not seem she would ever win by a large margin. Also, it seems pretty obvious she does not like DMR so can't you discount that performance. She is 13 - 13 and from the talk it sounds like the opinion is she she has no shot. Has any filly ever won the Classic? Would this be a bigger accomplishment than RA ast SAR? Not saying she will win but she does have a good shot on this surface....and for everyone who has complained about Sheriiffs and the campaign - at least she is not sitting in barn on THE day she is supposed to be running.

[South Beach Luv]

Beyer's column in the Washington Post today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...110502549.html

[Danzig]

i tend to ignore most comments, if not all, from the rider. smith also said giacomo flipped his palate in either the preakness or the belmont. he felt he needed an excuse for why the horse didn't run well. it was also untrue that anything had gone wrong with the horse.

zenyatta would be the first female to win the classic should she somehow manage to cross the line first. it's my opinion that her running style will be more of a hindrance tomorrow than in her past races, and that the field she will be joining is far, far superior to anything she has raced to this point. should she win, she would be deserving of every bit of praise....but i'll be amazed if she pulls it off. i've enjoyed watching her run, but that doesn't mean i think she's some sort of super horse. and the 13 for 13 was certainly aided by her campaign and her competition. i have more respect for a horse such as summer bird, who travelled all over, and took on all comers-even with a loss or two, than i do for a horse that's been treated as a hot house flower with huge spacing between races. i give them credit for taking her into a new realm, i didn't think it would happen.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Beyer's column in the Washington Post today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...110502549.html

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

How do you feel about her now?

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.

The pace was not really set by careless jewel, it was set by lethal heat, that horse running off did nothing to the pace of the rest of the horses that actually ran.

[slotdirt]

Careless Jewel served as a pretty nice rabbit for the rest of the field. I can't imagine Life is Sweet winning without her - and I had the 2.

[slotdirt]

BTW, does anybody have the will-pays to the Classic-Classic double?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Careless Jewel served as a pretty nice rabbit for the rest of the field. I can't imagine Life is Sweet winning without her - and I had the 2.

really, who wins then? she caught them with an eighth left.

[slotdirt]

And she loped along eleventy billion lengths back whilst the rest of the field chased a rabbit. It seems pretty clear cut to me.

Now, who's going to be Zenyatta's rabbit tomorrow? That's almost exactly how Zenyatta would have won that race today.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

And she loped along eleventy billion lengths back whilst the rest of the field chased a rabbit. It seems pretty clear cut to me.

Now, who's going to be Zenyatta's rabbit tomorrow? That's almost exactly how Zenyatta would have won that race today.

chased, the horse ran off, they were not chasing they let her go...cmon

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The pace was not really set by careless jewel, it was set by lethal heat, that horse running off did nothing to the pace of the rest of the horses that actually ran.

I got the impression that the rider on Proviso jumped the gun, perhaps thinking Careless Jewel was just coasting when well in front, and moved his mount very early into the fast fractions. Both Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach followed in turn. All 3 were under a drive with still over 3f left to run.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I got the impression that the rider on Proviso jumped the gun, perhaps thinking Careless Jewel was just coasting when well in front, and moved his mount very early into the fast fractions. Both Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach followed in turn. All 3 were under a drive with still over 3f left to run.

I can buy that, but that was on the turn when most horses are going to make a move in that race. The pace was fair IMO.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I can buy that, but that was on the turn when most horses are going to make a move in that race. The pace was fair IMO.

really, fair pace? it was the weirdest race of the day. they went 45 and change. horses that were 6 lenghts behind were not going to make that distance at that pace. every other race was inside speed, even the marathon winner rode the rail closing. when that horse ran off, it was a gift to the winner. the field was not that good to begin with and one of the favorites ran off. music note did not run good and was steadied a little, it left the race wide open. i would not draw any conclusions after that mess. from what i saw if the pace is normal, tactical speed is really good inside. that was the only race that fell apart, the pace was ridiculous.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

really, fair pace? it was the weirdest race of the day. they went 45 and change. horses that were 6 lenghts behind were not going to make that distance at that pace. .

I am not sure if I can agree, take Rainbow View, widely regarded as a contender, she was close to the pace...

She went the half in 47 4/5 and 111 3/5ths.........I dont see how that would not be overcome by a horse in form, now she faded but thats not crazy pace. In fact those are about the fractions of a 2 year old filly who ended up winning earlier. Fast yes, crazy fall apart fast for the middle of the pack, I just see it different. I think the best horse, on this surface, won.