Most Likely BC Winner/Single

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yes, but she is also the most likely winner of the race she is entered in.
Zenyatta strikes me as about a 10/1 - 15/1 shot here. I doubt if she hits the board.

That's the great thing about racing. I think Zenyatta has no trouble here and if I were betting, anything over 2/1, I'd be thrilled with. We'll find out this weekend.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

That's the great thing about racing. I think Zenyatta has no trouble here and if I were betting, anything over 2/1, I'd be thrilled with. We'll find out this weekend.

I think you'll get every bit of 2/1 and then some. Maybe 7/2. You should be mixing some jump shot practice in with your handicapping. Dont let something that rare go.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

I think you'll get every bit of 2/1 and then some. Maybe 7/2. You should be mixing some jump shot practice in with your handicapping. Dont let something that rare go.

It won't matter if she's 3/5 or 35/1. I've vowed to never bet another dime on a synthetic track race again. I just don't see her losing and I only see one other horse that can possibly win and he's 50/50 to not like the track and has these foot issues.

The jumper is in mothballs.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I only see one other horse that can possibly win.

You really think Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over have zero chance? Combined?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You really think Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over have zero chance? Combined?

I just wish I could bet on Field vs Zenyatta + "Rip". Despite my horses having zero chance, I'd be happy to take even money. Thrilled, in fact.

--Dunbar

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You really think Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over have zero chance? Combined?

Summer Bird, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over....no. Gio Ponti a slight, slight chance but I think it would take Zenyatta not running her race and Rip not liking the track. If either/both of those things happen, Gio Ponti has no shot either.

[Travis Stone]

Do you have the same conviction about Zenyatta now as you had about Stardom Bound and the Kentucky Derby this spring?

[Danzig]

i don't feel very confident about zenyatta at all-what am i missing that others are seeing? she might have a big time win streak going on, but is she really the best horse in the field?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Do you have the same conviction about Zenyatta now as you had about Stardom Bound and the Kentucky Derby this spring?

I bet in March, you would have had more confidence in Stardom Bound's chances than Mine That Bird's.

I was wrong to think that Stardom Bound could have beaten Rachel and I admitted as much way back then. I would have liked her chances against the males that ran in the Derby though. And I like Zenyatta MORE this weekend.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Summer Bird, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over....no. Gio Ponti a slight, slight chance but I think it would take Zenyatta not running her race and Rip not liking the track. If either/both of those things happen, Gio Ponti has no shot either.

Why does Rip have such a better chance than QR? Neither have been on this surface, and both are very talented animals. QR has never run a bad race. I am not an expert on Euros but QR's figures are every bit as good if not better than what Rip has run.

Missing how one has such a better chance than the other.

This is a new race, its not last year.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gander

Why does Rip have such a better chance than QR? Neither have been on this surface, and both are very talented animals. QR has never run a bad race. I am not an expert on Euros but QR's figures are every bit as good if not better than what Rip has run.

Missing how one has such a better chance than the other.

This is a new race, its not last year.

true.
in that regard, is the track playing differently then a year ago at this time?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

Why does Rip have such a better chance than QR? Neither have been on this surface, and both are very talented animals. QR has never run a bad race. I am not an expert on Euros but QR's figures are every bit as good if not better than what Rip has run.

Missing how one has such a better chance than the other.

This is a new race, its not last year.

I don't think Quality Road wants 10f. I'm sure Rip does. Neither has run on this stuff but it's clear that grass runners transfer form better. Besides the fact that I just think Rip is better.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Summer Bird, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over....no. Gio Ponti a slight, slight chance but I think it would take Zenyatta not running her race and Rip not liking the track. If either/both of those things happen, Gio Ponti has no shot either.

How do you give Twice Over zero chance?
I am not even remotely close to being an expert when it comes to evaluating euro races, but doesn't his last race seem to indicate that he might have at least an outside shot here? Do you really know enough about him to say that he doesn't even have a chance?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

How do you give Twice Over zero chance?
I am not even remotely close to being an expert when it comes to evaluating euro races, but doesn't his last race seem to indicate that he might have at least an outside shot here? Do you really know enough about him to say that he doesn't even have a chance?

I don't think he does well in races with a quick pace. I've watched all of his grade one races and before he broke through in the last (a 14-1 upset), he wasn't really highly regarded over there. His lowest odds in any other grade one were 7.50-1. In the St. James's Palace, he was up fairly close and even took the lead in the last furlong but couldn't go with the top horses. In last year's Champion Stakes, he again was right up there with a furlong to go and was no match for the winner. In the Lockinge, he led early and even though he battled at the end, was again passed. In the Prince of Wales's, he again led in the final quarter and was again passed. He was crushed in the Eclipse but I'd throw that out as he's better than what we saw there. I think an American 10f race is going to be run at too quick a pace for him. Oddly, I think he'd have been a much better fit for the 12f Turf because those races usually have less pace and he could run easier up front. Because he's a grass graded stakes level horse, I'd probably have to put him in the fourth spot in a super but I just can't see him higher than that.