2009 Breeders' Cup

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many have ever been entered?

Very, very, very few ... and none of them even had so much as a slim chance.

You can find a lot of 4th and 5th choices who simply have no chance. Very rarely do you find a 4th or 5th choice who only needs to run back to her last race to win.

Few trainers suck as much as Ken McPeak does with debuting sprinters. Few trainers have ever been as strong as Ken McPeak is with 2nd time starters going long.

It was a question for debate, given the horse discussed.

Very few that I can remember have been entered, usually because they wouldn't draw in anyways because the gate would fill with horses who had graded stakes points. Now so few 2yo's have more than 3-4 starts before the BC it certainly allows a maiden winner to not only get in but have a reasonable shot.

As for her odds, I think she might be higher than 4th or 5th choice. Always a Princess, Beautician, Bickersons, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Negligee, and She Be Wild will probably be lower odds than her (whether warranted or not.) I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

It was a question for debate, given the horse discussed.

Very few that I can remember have been entered, usually because they wouldn't draw in anyways because the gate would fill with horses who had graded stakes points. Now so few 2yo's have more than 3-4 starts before the BC it certainly allows a maiden winner to not only get in but have a reasonable shot.

As for her odds, I think she might be higher than 4th or 5th choice. Always a Princess, Beautician, Bickersons, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Negligee, and She Be Wild will probably be lower odds than her (whether warranted or not.) I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

You really think Beautician will be that high with the obvious trouble in last race and prior efforts?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You really think Beautician will be that high with the obvious trouble in last race and prior efforts?

I started her at 8-1, which is what I think I'd make her, but I try to get in the bettor's minds and quite frankly the last race is what dictates odds most of the time, especially in this case where she was trying two things new (going long, synthetic.) I've watched the replay a bunch of times and she was under the whip early and the trouble wouldn't have made the difference between her and the top two IMO. I won't be betting her at any price.

I really like Devil May Care but Regal Ransom's bomb on his only attempt on synthetic scares me a bit. She showed a great turn of foot when asked in the Frizette then held off the even money challenger.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

I started her at 8-1, which is what I think I'd make her, but I try to get in the bettor's minds and quite frankly the last race is what dictates odds most of the time, especially in this case where she was trying two things new (going long, synthetic.) I've watched the replay a bunch of times and she was under the whip early and the trouble wouldn't have made the difference between her and the top two IMO. I won't be betting her at any price.

I really like Devil May Care but Regal Ransom's bomb on his only attempt on synthetic scares me a bit. She showed a great turn of foot when asked in the Frizette then held off the even money challenger.

What are your thoughts in the Distaff?

[philcski]

Also, in reference to your McPeek stretchout comments, it looks like he's trying to enter my friend's horse off just a debut maiden win in the BCJ (or BCJT) since he scratched out of the Iroquois today.

While I'll root for him he doesn't have much of a chance and quite frankly I don't know if he'll even draw in, as he's last on the AE's list.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Also, in reference to your McPeek stretchout comments, it looks like he's trying to enter my friend's horse off just a debut maiden win in the BCJ (or BCJT) since he scratched out of the Iroquois today.

While I'll root for him he doesn't have much of a chance and quite frankly I don't know if he'll even draw in, as he's last on the AE's list.

I was with McPeek in Hammerle's office for quite a while yesterday and can tell you he is not expecting Fist of Rage to get into the Cup at all. He didn't like the spot yesterday and calld Rayman and said he thought they were rushing things if they ran in there. They have big hopes for the horse and he just felt on a gut level it was a mistake to run.

His instincts seemed right because we went over the TG's on both races, and as much as he thought Fist was in tough, he also thought Vivid Colors might be able to get black type in the Pocahontas. And she was just a length short...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I was with McPeek in Hammerle's office for quite a while yesterday and can tell you he is not expecting Fist of Rage to get into the Cup at all. He didn't like the spot yesterday and calld Rayman and said he thought they were rushing things if they ran in there. They have big hopes for the horse and he just felt on a gut level it was a mistake to run.

His instincts seemed right because we went over the TG's on both races, and as much as he thought Fist was in tough, he also thought Vivid Colors might be able to get black type in the Pocahontas. And she was just a length short...

I'll be shocked if McPeek doesn't win a juvie race as I honestly think he has a good shot in all four. Noble's Promise missed a work due to a leg infection so that is a bit of question mark for me, but his work on Sunday was reported as being good.

The most impressive thing to me though is he has all of these decent 2 year olds and I don't think a single one cost more than 100K.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I was with McPeek in Hammerle's office for quite a while yesterday and can tell you he is not expecting Fist of Rage to get into the Cup at all. He didn't like the spot yesterday and calld Rayman and said he thought they were rushing things if they ran in there. They have big hopes for the horse and he just felt on a gut level it was a mistake to run.

His instincts seemed right because we went over the TG's on both races, and as much as he thought Fist was in tough, he also thought Vivid Colors might be able to get black type in the Pocahontas. And she was just a length short...

Great update Steve, was actually going to call him today to see what the thoughts were. I know they like him quite a bit, the debut was certainly promising (i think he got a 10 in the debut). There's plenty of allowance opportunities at CD for 2yos which make sense.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I was with McPeek in Hammerle's office for quite a while yesterday and can tell you he is not expecting Fist of Rage to get into the Cup at all. He didn't like the spot yesterday and calld Rayman and said he thought they were rushing things if they ran in there. They have big hopes for the horse and he just felt on a gut level it was a mistake to run.

His instincts seemed right because we went over the TG's on both races, and as much as he thought Fist was in tough, he also thought Vivid Colors might be able to get black type in the Pocahontas. And she was just a length short...

Any comments about Connie and Michael?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

It's been a long time since I've seen the clear-cut fastest horse go off the 8th choice in a race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's been a long time since I've seen the clear-cut fastest horse go off the 8th choice in a race.

Only the Beyers have her as the clear-cut fastest.

Her stablemate ran a faster TG at the same distance, and the Bris figures have her 5th at 7F or longer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Her stablemate ran her big sheet number on dirt I would assume.

Bris figures are as bad as it gets. If I E-mailed PG'85 a bunch of charts and tables he could make way better figures than Bris on his own.

[philcski]

Of course- it was in the Spinaway behind Hot Dixie Chick- and I've already shown my discontent with her.

I fully expected the dismissal of the Bris figures. Quite frankly, the Beyers are so terrible these days, especially on synthetics, I like using Brisnet better. At least I know when they're flawed. Beyer figures rank somewhere around Roman's Performance Figures for me. Useless.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I make my own ... and I'd say about 90-95% of the time the Beyers are within 3 points of my own numbers.

The figure makers very rarely do anything stupid unless its on a tricky day.

I set an all-time record for variant splits and races cut loose with my PID ones ... you'd probably hate my own numbers more than the Beyers if you actually bother to look at BRIS.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Her stablemate ran her big sheet number on dirt I would assume.

Bris figures are as bad as it gets. If I E-mailed PG'85 a bunch of charts and tables he could make way better figures than Bris on his own.

No doubt about that.