2009 Breeders' Cup

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How can the horse possibly be an outsider when it has run clearly the best race of anyone in the field?

On top of having clearly the best race ... it might be as high as 5th or 6th choice in the betting.

If you argued that the horse was an underlay for underneath in exotic spots .. than I would certainly agree because of her running style and the factors you mention.

These types often either win easily as non-favorites ... or bomb. They have an absolutely spectacular ROI on the win end ... but they also completely bomb quite a bit.

I wasn't saying that Connie and Michael is an outsider. I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there. Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there.

Yeah, the value would be there if you mean big odds ... but so would a less than sensational race ... and such a horse would have no shot at big odds.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

She is more likely than not to bomb .... but she is also more likely to win than her projected closing odds will indicate.

I have her as a possible big overlay to win and a possible huge underlay to finish underneath in exotics.

The opposite of how a horse like a Perfect Drift or Dynever was often a big underlay to win and an overlay to finish underneath.

Anyone that uses her in the 3rd or 4th slot in exotics is a fool. Anyone that denies her extreme once-a-year like debut talent is also being extremely foolish.

[philcski]

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by philcski

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

I believe none. Action This Day and Indian Blessing both had only two starts and that's the fewest any winners have had.

NT

[Indian Charlie]

I think UBS and Brocco both had two starts as well.

[NTamm1215]

Interestingly and somewhat obviously enough, the last three Juv Fillies winners at SA won the Oak Leaf.

I have basically no opinion on this year's Juv Fillies as it is by far the race on Friday I'm looking forward to the least. Except that I think Connie and Michael won't win.

NT

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Interestingly and somewhat obviously enough, the last three Juv Fillies winners at SA won the Oak Leaf.

I have basically no opinion on this year's Juv Fillies as it is by far the race on Friday I'm looking forward to the least. Except that I think Connie and Michael won't win.

NT

I thought Blind Luck's last two races were strong...

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I believe none. Action This Day and Indian Blessing both had only two starts and that's the fewest any winners have had.

NT

One of Indian Blessings was a Grade 1.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

One of Indian Blessings was a Grade 1.

Right.

[Betsy]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/108617.html

King Glorious, given the work, would you send Girolamo to the Cigar Mile? It doesn't sound like he's that happy with the surface.....he usually works much better than this. Is it possible perhaps Godolphin wanted to put a stiff work into him because he's inexperienced?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

How many have ever been entered?

Very, very, very few ... and none of them even had so much as a slim chance.

You can find a lot of 4th and 5th choices who simply have no chance. Very rarely do you find a 4th or 5th choice who only needs to run back to her last race to win.

Few trainers suck as much as Ken McPeak does with debuting sprinters. Few trainers have ever been as strong as Ken McPeak is with 2nd time starters going long.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many have ever been entered?

Very, very, very few ... and none of them even had so much as a slim chance.

You can find a lot of 4th and 5th choices who simply have no chance. Very rarely do you find a 4th or 5th choice who only needs to run back to her last race to win.

Few trainers suck as much as Ken McPeak does with debuting sprinters. Few trainers have ever been as strong as Ken McPeak is with 2nd time starters going long.

It was a question for debate, given the horse discussed.

Very few that I can remember have been entered, usually because they wouldn't draw in anyways because the gate would fill with horses who had graded stakes points. Now so few 2yo's have more than 3-4 starts before the BC it certainly allows a maiden winner to not only get in but have a reasonable shot.

As for her odds, I think she might be higher than 4th or 5th choice. Always a Princess, Beautician, Bickersons, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Negligee, and She Be Wild will probably be lower odds than her (whether warranted or not.) I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

It was a question for debate, given the horse discussed.

Very few that I can remember have been entered, usually because they wouldn't draw in anyways because the gate would fill with horses who had graded stakes points. Now so few 2yo's have more than 3-4 starts before the BC it certainly allows a maiden winner to not only get in but have a reasonable shot.

As for her odds, I think she might be higher than 4th or 5th choice. Always a Princess, Beautician, Bickersons, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Negligee, and She Be Wild will probably be lower odds than her (whether warranted or not.) I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

You really think Beautician will be that high with the obvious trouble in last race and prior efforts?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You really think Beautician will be that high with the obvious trouble in last race and prior efforts?

I started her at 8-1, which is what I think I'd make her, but I try to get in the bettor's minds and quite frankly the last race is what dictates odds most of the time, especially in this case where she was trying two things new (going long, synthetic.) I've watched the replay a bunch of times and she was under the whip early and the trouble wouldn't have made the difference between her and the top two IMO. I won't be betting her at any price.

I really like Devil May Care but Regal Ransom's bomb on his only attempt on synthetic scares me a bit. She showed a great turn of foot when asked in the Frizette then held off the even money challenger.

[philcski]

Also, in reference to your McPeek stretchout comments, it looks like he's trying to enter my friend's horse off just a debut maiden win in the BCJ (or BCJT) since he scratched out of the Iroquois today.

While I'll root for him he doesn't have much of a chance and quite frankly I don't know if he'll even draw in, as he's last on the AE's list.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Also, in reference to your McPeek stretchout comments, it looks like he's trying to enter my friend's horse off just a debut maiden win in the BCJ (or BCJT) since he scratched out of the Iroquois today.

While I'll root for him he doesn't have much of a chance and quite frankly I don't know if he'll even draw in, as he's last on the AE's list.

I was with McPeek in Hammerle's office for quite a while yesterday and can tell you he is not expecting Fist of Rage to get into the Cup at all. He didn't like the spot yesterday and calld Rayman and said he thought they were rushing things if they ran in there. They have big hopes for the horse and he just felt on a gut level it was a mistake to run.

His instincts seemed right because we went over the TG's on both races, and as much as he thought Fist was in tough, he also thought Vivid Colors might be able to get black type in the Pocahontas. And she was just a length short...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

It's been a long time since I've seen the clear-cut fastest horse go off the 8th choice in a race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's been a long time since I've seen the clear-cut fastest horse go off the 8th choice in a race.

Only the Beyers have her as the clear-cut fastest.

Her stablemate ran a faster TG at the same distance, and the Bris figures have her 5th at 7F or longer.