2009 Breeders' Cup

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Anyone who bets Connie and Michael going two turns off of one six furlong race three weeks earlier should continue to play the game and contribute mightily to the pools because those are the type of people we need wagering consistently.

There's this long forgotten old handicapping angle called "The Best Horse"

In the Juv Fillies - Connie and Michael is probably the horse who best fits that angle... and the win of hers was at 7 furlongs... not six.

If you remember back to last year ... the horse who came into this race as "the worst horse" was 2nd time starter Dave's Revenge. She finished 4th beaten just 3 lengths by Stardom Bound at 64/1 odds. A nose behind Sky Diva for 3rd place.

You shouldn't forget about her ... because she makes a great trivia question. The question being 'name the horse who ran 4th in a Breeders Cup in just it's 2nd lifetime start ... and was claimed for $16,000 the following summer"

People will instantly think colt ... because any filly who misses 3rd by a nose in a BC race in just it's 2nd start - would figure to have more than 16K residual value as a broodmare prospect.

Her dam sire was Afternoon Deelites .. maybe that 4th was her version of a Hollywood Futurity romp over Thunder Gulch. I don't know.

Anyway, I'm not sure Connie and Michael has to get bet and will be one of the shortest prices.

People will be foolish enough to recall the Forest Music debacle... and FM was a horse who went a record 20.80 at the FT Calder 2yo sale. That was back when that type of preview was unheard of.

This is a totally different kind of horse than a one-way speed crazed stopper like FM.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There's this long forgotten old handicapping angle called "The Best Horse"

In the Juv Fillies - Connie and Michael is probably the horse who best fits that angle... and the win of hers was at 7 furlongs... not six.

If you remember back to last year ... the horse who came into this race as "the worst horse" was 2nd time starter Dave's Revenge. She finished 4th beaten just 3 lengths by Stardom Bound at 64/1 odds. A nose behind Sky Diva for 3rd place.

You shouldn't forget about her ... because she makes a great trivia question. The question being 'name the horse who ran 4th in a Breeders Cup in just it's 2nd lifetime start ... and was claimed for $16,000 the following summer"

People will instantly think colt ... because any filly who misses 3rd by a nose in a BC race in just it's 2nd start - would figure to have more than 16K residual value as a broodmare prospect.

Her dam sire was Afternoon Deelites .. maybe that 4th was her version of a Hollywood Futurity romp over Thunder Gulch. I don't know.

Anyway, I'm not sure Connie and Michael has to get bet and will be one of the shortest prices.

People will be foolish enough to recall the Forest Music debacle... and FM was a horse who went a record 20.80 at the FT Calder 2yo sale. That was back when that type of preview was unheard of.

This is a totally different kind of horse than a one-way speed crazed stopper like FM.

I think it's certainly possible that Connie and Michael could end up being the best horse going forward but I want no part of a horse that's being asked to do so much so fast. Even in this day and age where horses are being run in races with fewer preps and more time between races, going 1 1/16 miles on a new surface off of one 7 furlong race just flies in the face of conventional handicapping, in my estimation.

If you were asking this of a horse that was an outsider and you had reason to think they could make this type of leap at a fair price then one might consider it, but Connie and Michael is just not going to offer the value necessary to take such a calculated risk.

NT

[Hoist Her Flag]

If Precious Passion wins, I hope nobody gets on here and writes that he had a perfect trip. I've never seen such a race that is so clear cut. The gates open he opens up a 10 length lead, fill in the blank after that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If you were asking this of a horse that was an outsider and you had reason to think they could make this type of leap at a fair price then one might consider it, but Connie and Michael is just not going to offer the value necessary to take such a calculated risk.

How can the horse possibly be an outsider when it has run clearly the best race of anyone in the field?

On top of having clearly the best race ... it might be as high as 5th or 6th choice in the betting.

If you argued that the horse was an underlay for underneath in exotic spots .. than I would certainly agree because of her running style and the factors you mention.

These types often either win easily as non-favorites ... or bomb. They have an absolutely spectacular ROI on the win end ... but they also completely bomb quite a bit.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How can the horse possibly be an outsider when it has run clearly the best race of anyone in the field?

On top of having clearly the best race ... it might be as high as 5th or 6th choice in the betting.

If you argued that the horse was an underlay for underneath in exotic spots .. than I would certainly agree because of her running style and the factors you mention.

These types often either win easily as non-favorites ... or bomb. They have an absolutely spectacular ROI on the win end ... but they also completely bomb quite a bit.

I wasn't saying that Connie and Michael is an outsider. I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there. Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there.

Yeah, the value would be there if you mean big odds ... but so would a less than sensational race ... and such a horse would have no shot at big odds.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

She is more likely than not to bomb .... but she is also more likely to win than her projected closing odds will indicate.

I have her as a possible big overlay to win and a possible huge underlay to finish underneath in exotics.

The opposite of how a horse like a Perfect Drift or Dynever was often a big underlay to win and an overlay to finish underneath.

Anyone that uses her in the 3rd or 4th slot in exotics is a fool. Anyone that denies her extreme once-a-year like debut talent is also being extremely foolish.

[philcski]

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by philcski

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

I believe none. Action This Day and Indian Blessing both had only two starts and that's the fewest any winners have had.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

How many have ever been entered?

Very, very, very few ... and none of them even had so much as a slim chance.

You can find a lot of 4th and 5th choices who simply have no chance. Very rarely do you find a 4th or 5th choice who only needs to run back to her last race to win.

Few trainers suck as much as Ken McPeak does with debuting sprinters. Few trainers have ever been as strong as Ken McPeak is with 2nd time starters going long.