Why Lukas went downhill

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Sorry, but you could convince me that Santa Claus was real before you could ever convince me that trainers don't start their horses late because of the Breeder's Cup.

A horse running better as a 4 year old is not a golden rule either.

Some trainers do start their horses late, and some horses are better as three year olds than four year olds. However, most trainers only start horses back late because they don't have a choice due to an illness or injury. FA won his first start back very nicely, and lost all form from there. The horse is not the same horse, and it's not because he doesn't have the talent...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Some trainers do start their horses late, and some horses are better as three year olds than four year olds. However, most trainers only start horses back late because they don't have a choice due to an illness or injury. FA won his first start back very nicely, and lost all form from there. The horse is not the same horse, and it's not because he doesn't have the talent...

I like Flower Alley, but I think some people had their rosy tinted glasses on in regards to his talent, but you are correct he doesn't show interest in his races (but is training fine).

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I like Flower Alley, but I think some people had their rosy tinted glasses on in regards to his talent, but you are correct he doesn't show interest in his races (but is training fine).

The BCC made me a believer in the horse. I think that some people overrated him a bit, but I do believe that he was a talented horse that was cetainly capable of finishing in the top three in all of his races this year, which he obviously did not do. I hope he is okay. Look at what happened to LITF...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The BCC made me a believer in the horse. I think that some people overrated him a bit, but I do believe that he was a talented horse that was cetainly capable of finishing in the top three in all of his races this year, which he obviously did not do. I hope he is okay. Look at what happened to LITF...

Which is what I think his connections thought too and gambled they could grab the Eclipse Award in a Ghostzapperesque way (minus the crazy speed). Following the Classic there wasn't a Invasor, Lava Man or Sun King that looked really good at the moment...

[Linny]

Todd said last year, right after the BCC that FA would make a late start and point for the '06 BCC. It appears to me that they had that plan. A horse with a significant injury doesn't run BSF's in the 90's as FA did in the Whitney. He's lost some speed and not replaced it with closing kick.
As for the JCGC last year, once he was fried in a pace duel with his own rabbit (why'd Todd do that again?) Johnny just eased him up. he knew that the big race was 4 (3?) weeks away. The margin could have been 4 lengths or 40, the result was the same. He was not persevered with.

I don't know what his problem is this year but I doubt he has some terrible injury. They have gone over him with a fine toothed comb and found nothing.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Believe what you want to, but logic tells me that when a horse is as good as FA was last year, and falls out of form as he did this year, it means that they are being bothered by something such as an injury. I have seen it happen time and time again. I am always leary of horses making late starts back for this reason. My opinion won't change unless a valid, believable excuse is made to explain Flower Alley's poor performances. The injury doesn't have to be a terrible injury for it to be affecting his races negatively. It could even be a mild to moderate injury. When I referred to a 'significant' injury earlier, I meant one that was affecting his performances in races, which is certainly significant if you have one that is as nice as Flower Alley.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Linny

Todd said last year, right after the BCC that FA would make a late start and point for the '06 BCC. It appears to me that they had that plan. A horse with a significant injury doesn't run BSF's in the 90's as FA did in the Whitney. He's lost some speed and not replaced it with closing kick.
As for the JCGC last year, once he was fried in a pace duel with his own rabbit (why'd Todd do that again?) Johnny just eased him up. he knew that the big race was 4 (3?) weeks away. The margin could have been 4 lengths or 40, the result was the same. He was not persevered with.

I don't know what his problem is this year but I doubt he has some terrible injury. They have gone over him with a fine toothed comb and found nothing.

First of all, it it totally untrue that horses with serious problems don't run fast. Some of the sorest and most unsound horses out there run 6 furlongs in 1:08 3/5. You'd be shocked at how may horses out there run great with significant injuries. The horses won't last for very long, but you often times don't know how many races they will last for. Some of these claiming horses that have tendons are ticking time-bombs. They keep on winning but any day will be their last day. They may have 1 race left in them or they may have five or six. That's why sometimes you will see one of these horses win a few in a row at the same class level and nobody claims him. People are afraid that the horse will never be able to run again and yet the horse may win another 4 in a row.

Speaking of horses running fast with serious injuries, look at Afleet Alex. He won the Belmont with a hairline fracture.

With regard to Flower Alley, you don't know that they've gone over him with a fine-tooth comb and found nothing. I would bet serious money that they know exactly what's wrong with him. Just because they aren't saying it publicly, it doesn't mean that there is no problem or that they don't know what the problem is.

With reagrd to Flower Alley in the JCGC last year, he was done at the 3/8 pole. If he just got a little tired from the fast pace, he would have at least fought until the 1/8th or the 1/16th pole. Borrego was 6 lengths by him before they even hit the 1/8th pole. There is no way that FA could have finished within 4 lengths of Borrego. you're just guessing that he ran fine and got a little tired and that JV wrapped on him. You should watch the replay before you assume that.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Speaking of horses running fast with serious injuries, look at Afleet Alex. He won the Belmont with a hairline fracture.

No one knows when he had it, all they can do is speculate.

[Linny]

As for the JCGC, my point was that the margin of loss was a product of the early pace and JV knowing that he wasn't a contender at the 3/8 pole. He wrapped up. I don't think he could have been within 4 lenths, Borrego ate him up. The point was that the margin itself was meaningless. He proved it by running very well in the BCC.

I also find it hard to believe that if Todd knew after the Whitney that something was seriously wrong with his "HOY candidate" that he'd run back in the Woodward. You do that sort of thing with the claiming stock you refer to not the horse that you think could still get you an Eclipse. I'm sure that Melnyk is trying to sell FA for stud and any subsequent poor efforts with no announced reason cuts the price. If they know he has a particular serious issue they'd say so (to own the excuse) and not run him back. You don't wiat til the price is cut again and again by poor efforts, then announce why he ran so bad.

I know most of the lesser horses (and many of the top horses) have issues to one degree or another. They all have something that's not right. lesser stock gets patched up and sent over. Horses with residual stud value are handled with kid gloves.