I Really Wish I Could Have Seen......

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Remember that when him and Best Pal were racing against each other, Best Pal was a far more experienced and seasoned horse. In my eyes, there was a large gap in talent between those two.
At this point, he's got 4 wins and a tough beat second in 5 starts. This horse was the real deal and almost certainly was better than anything in the East that year.

By the way, your comparison with horses later that decade is irrelevant. If anything, Dinard was right in the middle of a streak where the Santa Anita Derby winner was seemingly cursed.

In that span, I'd say Dinard and Indy were just about as close to locks as you can have in that race, had they not been hurt.

You still neglect Hansel who almost certainly ran as fast, if not faster than any of Dinard's races in his track record performance in the Jim Beam.

Further, let's look at strict form with regards to Hansel:

Jim Beam: dusts Apollo by open lengths
Preakness: dusts Best Pal and Olympio by open lengths

That alone is enough to suggest that Hansel would have been a good matchup with Dinard (assuming Dinard was the West's best), and thus negates any suggestion that Dinard was some sort of "lock" in the Derby.

Dinard strained some portion of his suspensory ligament roughly 10 days before the Kentucky Derby (3 weeks since the SA Derby) after breezing 6f in 1:18+ at CD.

As for Best Pal, perhaps more seasoned, but he was making a somewhat belated 3yo debut (March) and had just 2 preps leading to the Derby. You could argue that Dinard had the advantage with all the recent racing (which may have ultimately been his undoing).

As for the SA Derby history, not sure where you going with the curse thing (how would this help your argument that Dinard was a lock in the Derby anyways?), but I was suggesting that Best Pal's runner-up efforts didn't necessarily mean he was not as good as Dinard, but rather a result of "prepping" for a more important contest (which would fall in line with the fact that Best Pal started the season late). Alluding to Silver Charm (who chased Free House), Real Quiet (who chased Artax and Indian Charlie), and Go For Gin (Irgun, Holy Bull) who all ultimately won the Derby was supposed to lend plausability to that scenario.

As for AP Indy, it seems contradictory to suggest he was a lock for the Derby as well, when you defend the thinking that Arazi was somehow cheated out of a Derby win (they both were entered for the '92 edition).

If Arazi was scratched raceday along AP Indy, who would have been more of a lock?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You still neglect Hansel who almost certainly ran as fast, if not faster than any of Dinard's races in his track record performance in the Jim Beam.

Further, let's look at strict form with regards to Hansel:

Jim Beam: dusts Apollo by open lengths
Preakness: dusts Best Pal and Olympio by open lengths

Do you think that maybe the 9f of the Jim Beam might have been outside Apollo's best range?

How about the 45.3 and 109.3 splits he set? Or that he shipped to a surface that a lot of horses didn't like back then?

Or, maybe coming back in less than four weeks off one of the most gut wrenching performances we've seen out of a sprinter going a mile, that maybe that took something out of him?

Or, how about that Apollo, coming off that Dinard loss, never was the same horse again, winning only one time in those last 17 races of his career? This from a horse with four wins and a head loss to Dinard in his first 6 starts???

Get real man!

As for Hansel's GREAT three year old form going into the derby:

5th by 11 to Fly So Free in the FOY in a blazing fast 144.1

3rd by 5 to FSF again, in the Florida Derby. Strike the Gold second, a super blazing time of 150.2.

Then the 2.5 length win in the Jim Beam in 146.3 for 9f. Nice time, but beat Richman and Wilder Than Ever.

Then the romp in the Lexington. 9 length win over Shotgun Harry J. and Speedy Cure in 142.3.

Hansel did get sharp there, but against badly overmatched opponents and over lightning fast surfaces.

I'll take Dinard please.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

As for the SA Derby history, not sure where you going with the curse thing (how would this help your argument that Dinard was a lock in the Derby anyways?), but I was suggesting that Best Pal's runner-up efforts didn't necessarily mean he was not as good as Dinard, but rather a result of "prepping" for a more important contest (which would fall in line with the fact that Best Pal started the season late). Alluding to Silver Charm (who chased Free House), Real Quiet (who chased Artax and Indian Charlie), and Go For Gin (Irgun, Holy Bull) who all ultimately won the Derby was supposed to lend plausability to that scenario.

It really had nothing to do with anything. Just a weird run of bad luck for winners of that race.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

As for AP Indy, it seems contradictory to suggest he was a lock for the Derby as well, when you defend the thinking that Arazi was somehow cheated out of a Derby win (they both were entered for the '92 edition).

If Arazi was scratched raceday along AP Indy, who would have been more of a lock?

I followed the Arazi situation very closely. The trainer wanted no part of coming back to Kentucky, there were offhanded rumors that the dirt was unkind to Arazi (I don't really know if I buy into that one) and everyone knew he was going to have just one prep race, against the equivalent of low claimers. He had no hope against AP Indy with these things going against him.

Nobody at all, except for any idiot who bet Arazi, perhaps, was surprised by that outcome.

[miraja2]

In recent times it would have been nice to see Afleet Alex compete post-Belmont. His post-Derby performances hinted that Rose had finally figured him out, and even though he was not exactly facing terrific fields in those two races, I would have liked to see him against Flower Alley and Saint Liam in the fall of that year.

Other than that, I would have liked to have seen a nice long movie instead of the 2007 Pacific Classic, and I would have enjoyed seeing a match race this year between Rachel Alexandra and Pepper's Pride.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Or, how about that Apollo, coming off that Dinard loss, never was the same horse again, winning only one time in those last 17 races of his career? This from a horse with four wins and a head loss to Dinard in his first 6 starts???

Get real man!

For those keeping it real, Apollo was for the most part facing Cal-breds prior to his Herculean tussle with Dinard.

And, yes, Apollo would have been a monster had Dinard not ripped his heart out (by a head) in the San Rafael. See the '90 California Breeder's Championship for further evidence.

As for Hansel's GREAT three year old form going into the derby:

5th by 11 to Fly So Free in the FOY in a blazing fast 144.1

3rd by 5 to FSF again, in the Florida Derby. Strike the Gold second, a super blazing time of 150.2.

Then the 2.5 length win in the Jim Beam in 146.3 for 9f. Nice time, but beat Richman and Wilder Than Ever.

Then the romp in the Lexington. 9 length win over Shotgun Harry J. and Speedy Cure in 142.3.

Hansel did get sharp there, but against badly overmatched opponents and over lightning fast surfaces.

I'll take Dinard please.

So much for allowing horses like Hansel and Best Pal to race into peak form. No matter what you do later in the year, those losses in the prep races really come back to haunt you.

Just to come back to reality, recall that Hansel ended up a dual classic winner and Eclipse Champion while Best Pal won about a trillion dollars.

I guess we don't need to tackle the Preakness, where both of Dinard's archrivals in CA, Olympio and Best Pal couldn't get within 10 lengths of Hansel.

I followed the Arazi situation very closely. The trainer wanted no part of coming back to Kentucky, there were offhanded rumors that the dirt was unkind to Arazi (I don't really know if I buy into that one) and everyone knew he was going to have just one prep race, against the equivalent of low claimers. He had no hope against AP Indy with these things going against him.

The Prix Omnium II is a listed prep for the French 2000 Guineas. In recent years, Arlington Million winner Spirit One, multiple Group 1 winner American Post, Del Mar Derby winner Blackdoun, Champion winner Literato have come out of the race. The year after Arazi, future Queen Elizabeth winner Bigstone won it.

The claimers that Arazi handled that day, Supermec and River Majesty later came to the States and won or placed in stakes. River Majesty was multiple Group 1 placed to horses like Paradise Creek, Kiris Clown, and Solar Splendor.

If pedigree is any indication, Arazi was cut out to be a miler. His 3/4 brother by Rahy (a son of Arazi's sire, the good miler Blushing Groom), Noverre excelled at a mile. His second dam also produced middle distance turf horse, Joyeux Danseur.

Perhaps, like Apollo in the Jim Beam, he was simply out of his range. Of course, he never ran into Dinard prior to the Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

So much for allowing horses like Hansel and Best Pal to race into peak form. No matter what you do later in the year, those losses in the prep races really come back to haunt you.

Just to come back to reality, recall that Hansel ended up a dual classic winner and Eclipse Champion while Best Pal won about a trillion dollars.

I guess we don't need to tackle the Preakness, where both of Dinard's archrivals in CA, Olympio and Best Pal couldn't get within 10 lengths of Hansel.

Wait. Weren't we talking about how Hansel and Dinard were running leading up to the derby, and why Dinard wasn't the lock I thought he was? I'm not sure what your points have to do with the original purpose of our comparisons. I certainly don't.

By the way, were you aware that Hansel ran in the Kentucky Derby and ran fifth by over 10 lengths? Do you think that if a healthy Dinard had run in the derby, that Hansel would have picked it up and ran better?

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The Prix Omnium II is a listed prep for the French 2000 Guineas. In recent years, Arlington Million winner Spirit One, multiple Group 1 winner American Post, Del Mar Derby winner Blackdoun, Champion winner Literato have come out of the race. The year after Arazi, future Queen Elizabeth winner Bigstone won it.

The claimers that Arazi handled that day, Supermec and River Majesty later came to the States and won or placed in stakes. River Majesty was multiple Group 1 placed to horses like Paradise Creek, Kiris Clown, and Solar Splendor.

At the time that race was run, most of the Euro commentators of the day stated that field was terrible. Arazi galloped and could have won by about 40.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If pedigree is any indication, Arazi was cut out to be a miler. His 3/4 brother by Rahy (a son of Arazi's sire, the good miler Blushing Groom), Noverre excelled at a mile. His second dam also produced middle distance turf horse, Joyeux Danseur.

Perhaps, like Apollo in the Jim Beam, he was simply out of his range. Of course, he never ran into Dinard prior to the Derby.

A healthy and fit Arazi, yeah, that might have been a different story in his derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Wait. Weren't we talking about how Hansel and Dinard were running leading up to the derby, and why Dinard wasn't the lock I thought he was? I'm not sure what your points have to do with the original purpose of our comparisons. I certainly don't.

Well your other contention was that Dinard was lengths better than both Best Pal and Hansel (thus he was a lock). That almost certainly was not the case.

By the way, were you aware that Hansel ran in the Kentucky Derby and ran fifth by over 10 lengths? Do you think that if a healthy Dinard had run in the derby, that Hansel would have picked it up and ran better?

Actually, Hansel ran 10th as the favorite. Considering both his final prep efforts and subsequent classic runs, isn't that effort a bit of an anomaly?

And yet I'm sure Dinard couldn't possibly have thrown in a clunker (if he could actually make it to the starting gate), even though reports were that he was training poorly over the CD surface.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Well your other contention was that Dinard was lengths better than both Best Pal and Hansel (thus he was a lock). That almost certainly was not the case.

Watching him progress through his races, he was a horse to me that was already really good and had a ton more upside to him. So, to my eyes, he was already better than Hansel and/or Best Pal and I fully expected him to keep getting better.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Actually, Hansel ran 10th as the favorite. Considering both his final prep efforts and subsequent classic runs, isn't that effort a bit of an anomaly?

Sorry there, my mistake. I don't know why I thought he was fifth. I was probably overrating him??

I think his final two preps were really nice, but if there was an anomaly in his race record, those two races were it. As for his two classic wins, the Preakness was his shining moment, but Corporate Report and Mane Minister weren't much.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

And yet I'm sure Dinard couldn't possibly have thrown in a clunker (if he could actually make it to the starting gate), even though reports were that he was training poorly over the CD surface.

He never threw in a clunker.

As for those reports of him training poorly over the CD surface, I think that was entirely likely a result of his injury.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think his final two preps were really nice, but if there was an anomaly in his race record, those two races were it. As for his two classic wins, the Preakness was his shining moment, but Corporate Report and Mane Minister weren't much.

You mean Travers winner Corporate Report? And again, let's ignore Best Pal and Olympio because they didn't actually hit the board so it was if they weren't even there.

Neither Olympio nor Best Pal had a viable excuse for getting lit up by Hansel in the Preakness. Both didn't miss anytime following their defeats and in fact finished the last half of the year strongly.

While one would have to concede off the winter Santa Anita races that Dinard held a slight edge over those two, it certainly wasn't anywhere near the tune of 10 lengths.

He never threw in a clunker.

As for those reports of him training poorly over the CD surface, I think that was entirely likely a result of his injury.

He also never ran anywhere outside of SA.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A. P. Indy was the furthest thing in the world from being a lock to win the Kentucky Derby.

It took him 1:49.25 to win the Santa Anita Derby. On the same exact day and at the same distance, New York reject Another Review won the San Bernadino in 1:47.33 seconds.

People will point to the '92 Santa Anita Derby and call it a great race .. because the eventual Horse of the Year won, 2nd place finisher Bertrando would eventually become a champion older male, and 3rd place finisher Casual Lies would finish underneath in triple crown races.

However, A. P. Indy was scratched out of his next start. Bertrando didn't run again for almost 9 months after the race. And Casual Lies is your typical grinding bridesmaid.. he only won a single race after the SA Derby, and it was at Golden Gate more than a year later.

The '92 SA Derby may have great names attatched to it... but it was a painfully slow race with a couple of fine horses who battled physical issues beating a bridesmaid in dismal time.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A. P. Indy was the furthest thing in the world from being a lock to win the Kentucky Derby.

It took him 1:49.25 to win the Santa Anita Derby. On the same exact day and at the same distance, New York reject Another Review won the San Bernadino in 1:47.33 seconds.

People will point to the '92 Santa Anita Derby and call it a great race .. because the eventual Horse of the Year won, 2nd place finisher Bertrando would eventually become a champion older male, and 3rd place finisher Casual Lies would finish underneath in triple crown races.

However, A. P. Indy was scratched out of his next start. Bertrando didn't run again for almost 9 months after the race. And Casual Lies is your typical grinding bridesmaid.. he only won a single race after the SA Derby, and it was at Golden Gate more than a year later.

The '92 SA Derby may have great names attatched to it... but it was a painfully slow race with a couple of fine horses who battled physical issues beating a bridesmaid in dismal time.

Great.

Except AP Indy somehow managed to win the Peter Pan and the Belmont with your beloved figures 13 and 16 points higher than his 'slow' SA Derby win.

Which leads to what I've told you over and over. AP Indy was not a flashy runner and did what was necessary to win. His Peter Pan win was his largest margin of victory, but he was facing crap there.

Also, Indy, being trained by a conservative trainer, was highly unlikely to have been at peak fitness for the SA Derby.

Have you ever even seen that race??

[Indian Charlie]

And tell me you aren't dumb enough to actually believe Lil E. Tee was better than Indy. That field for the derby was watered down, and you know it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

And tell me you aren't dumb enough to actually believe Lil E. Tee was better than Indy.

Going into the Kentucky Derby?

Absolutely. He ran a 106 and 107 in his final two fast track prep races. A. P. Indy ran a 100 and a 95 in his.

Not only did Lil E Tee own a figure edge between 4-to-7 lengths over A. P. Indy .. but he also owned a seasoning edge .. having made 4 prior starts in 3 preps to just 2 starts for Ap Indy.






Just because Lil E. Tee was coming into the Derby as a better horse than A. P. Indy ... doesn't mean he was a better horse.

A. P. Indy possibly had an issue bothering him in his preps - and with time to recover - he ran to the level of Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee obviously had his physical issues after the Preakness. He didn't race again at age 3 and only made 3 more starts.

It's unfair and insane to compare the two based on what they've done as sires. Lil E. Tee is an obscurely bred type who was bought from a 2yo in training sale for just 25K. A. P. Indy is a royally bred type who sold for a staggering $2,900,000 as a yearling.

[CSC]

He( Lil E. Tee ) wasn't the greatest Derby winner ever, but I do recommend reading his story in the book Derby Champions.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The guy who trained Lil E Tee as a 2yo was stabled next to my father when my father trained horses.

They bought him up after he won a MSW race at Calder by 11.5 lengths.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Going into the Kentucky Derby?

Absolutely. He ran a 106 and 107 in his final two fast track prep races. A. P. Indy ran a 100 and a 95 in his.

Not only did Lil E Tee own a figure edge between 4-to-7 lengths over A. P. Indy .. but he also owned a seasoning edge .. having made 4 prior starts in 3 preps to just 2 starts for Ap Indy.

Taking into consideration that Indy was likely not peaking at the SA Derby, combined with a retardedly low figure for that race (what, no split variant?), I think it's safe to take the Peter Pan as a more realistic expectation of what Indy was going to do in his next start (which was his next start!), the Ky. Derby. If you take that approach, their preps were really not far apart at all, and again, that 95 BSF is moronic.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just because Lil E. Tee was coming into the Derby as a better horse than A. P. Indy ... doesn't mean he was a better horse

A. P. Indy possibly had an issue bothering him in his preps - and with time to recover - he ran to the level of Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee obviously had his physical issues after the Preakness. He didn't race again at age 3 and only made 3 more starts.

It's unfair and insane to compare the two based on what they've done as sires. Lil E. Tee is an obscurely bred type who was bought from a 2yo in training sale for just 25K. A. P. Indy is a royally bred type who sold for a staggering $2,900,000 as a yearling.

Who compared them as stallions?

I've got another question for you. Say for the moment that I agree with everything you are saying here. Say also AP Indy does indeed run in the race. Does Lil E. Tee go off favored over Indy? I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?