Weekend Stakes Beyers

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by CSC

Is it just me but don't the Keeneland beyers look abit on the light side?

Just for the Stakes horses.
Those debuting are are putting up some nice Beyers.
Just this weekend we saw 3 nice firsters run off the screen.

American Lion: 93 (2nd start)
Connie and Michael: 95
Came East: 93 (40k Mdn Claimer)

[CSC]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just for the Stakes horses.
Those debuting are are putting up some nice Beyers.
Just this weekend we saw 3 nice firsters run off the screen.

American Lion: 93
Connie and Michael: 95
Came East: 93 (40k Mdn Claimer)

Something's wrong better than El Brujo a back to back stks winner...thx for the info.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Just for the Stakes horses.
Those debuting are are putting up some nice Beyers.
Just this weekend we saw 3 nice firsters run off the screen.

American Lion: 93 (2nd start)
Connie and Michael: 95
Came East: 93 (40k Mdn Claimer)

Absolutely unheard of, this 2yr old FILLY runs a Zenyatta like beyer and was being pointed to the BC JF before she even raced yet the odds maker makes her 12-1ml and pretends he has not heard the buzz about this horse. .

Please PLEASE keep telling me im wrong to believe there was a conspiracy to dupe the betting public

[cakes44]

Where did you hear the BC talk about this horse?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Where did you hear the BC talk about this horse?

There was none before the actual race but this was included in the latest track report for Keeneland on DRF.

"Connie and Michael eyes Breeders' Cup

The flashy maiden win (and 93 Beyer Speed Figure) by the WinStar Farm colt American Lion here Sunday wasn't the only eye-catching performance by a 2-year-old last weekend at Keeneland. Connie and Michael, a first-time starter for trainer Ken McPeek, earned a 95 Beyer in leading throughout to win Saturday's eighth race by 7 3/4 lengths.

McPeek said Connie and Michael, by Roman Ruler, will be considered for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, although whether she can make the 14-horse lineup without any graded earnings is questionable, he conceded. He said the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf also is a possibility.

"She's just so talented," he said.

McPeek added that Fist of Rage, a narrow winner of his career debut here Oct. 14, is under consideration for the BC Juvenile.

Also, McPeek has confirmed that Robby Albarado will have the mount back on Beautician when the filly runs Nov. 6 in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Albarado rode Beautician to win her career debut in June before Kent Desormeaux rode her in her next three races."

Of course, anyone who knows McPeaked would be certain that every 2YO in his barn is being pointed to the Breeders' Cup. If you listen to the interviews Battaglia does after races KmcP is the only one who always answers the question about going to the BC with "Oh, absolutely."

NT

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Absolutely unheard of, this 2yr old FILLY runs a Zenyatta like beyer and was being pointed to the BC JF before she even raced yet the odds maker makes her 12-1ml and pretends he has not heard the buzz about this horse. .

Please PLEASE keep telling me im wrong to believe there was a conspiracy to dupe the betting public

When the Morning Line is way off on a "live horse", there is a ton of value to be had in playing blind p3's and p4's to that horse.
I thought this horse looked very live when I went over the PP's the day before the race. Mcpeeks guy was riding Kent D. They were 2 really nice Bullet works then a bunch of easy works leading up to the race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

When the Morning Line is way off on a "live horse", there is a ton of value to be had in playing blind p3's and p4's to that horse.
I thought this horse looked very live when I went over the PP's the day before the race. Mcpeeks guy was riding Kent D. They were 2 really nice Bullet works then a bunch of easy works leading up to the race.

Please, don't even try and use simple logic. It was a putover of the worst kind. Battaglia needed to get out for the meet so he and McPeek conspired and ended up with a fat 5/2. Now the "voice" Battaglia was seen carrying bags of money to the local credit union with "Connie and Michael" written on the outside. They, of course, had Ben Huffman, Racing Secretary involved so that he would card this as Race 8, the 2nd leg of the Pick 4, leaving the poor, mis-guided public to assume the 12-1 morning line meant Connie and Michael was a goat. It was a disgrace and scourge against Keeneland and the entire sport.

NT

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Please, don't even try and use simple logic. It was a putover of the worst kind. Battaglia needed to get out for the meet so he and McPeek conspired and ended up with a fat 5/2. Now the "voice" Battaglia was seen carrying bags of money to the local credit union with "Connie and Michael" written on the outside. They, of course, had Ben Huffman, Racing Secretary involved so that he would card this as Race 8, the 2nd leg of the Pick 4, leaving the poor, mis-guided public to assume the 12-1 morning line meant Connie and Michael was a goat. It was a disgrace and scourge against Keeneland and the entire sport.

NT

The only, ONLY
reason they got 5/2 on the horse was because of the 12-1 morning line. If she had been 5-1/11-2 like Steve suggested she would of went off 3/5. Money went elsewhere late because of info provided in the program(odds and works). 5/2 was HUGE for this horse.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Please, don't even try and use simple logic. It was a putover of the worst kind. Battaglia needed to get out for the meet so he and McPeek conspired and ended up with a fat 5/2. Now the "voice" Battaglia was seen carrying bags of money to the local credit union with "Connie and Michael" written on the outside. They, of course, had Ben Huffman, Racing Secretary involved so that he would card this as Race 8, the 2nd leg of the Pick 4, leaving the poor, mis-guided public to assume the 12-1 morning line meant Connie and Michael was a goat. It was a disgrace and scourge against Keeneland and the entire sport.
NT

:

Originally Posted by kgar311

The only, ONLY
reason they got 5/2 on the horse was because of the 12-1 morning line. If she had been 5-1/11-2 like Steve suggested she would of went off 3/5. Money went elsewhere late because of info provided in the program(odds and works). 5/2 was HUGE for this horse.

LOL, at least you're consistent in how far off base you are in the face of overwhelming evidence and explanations that you are in fact, horribly, and now almost comically, wrong.

[Scav]

I like how said person went to a different thread to sneak some comments in

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by kgar311

The only, ONLY
reason they got 5/2 on the horse was because of the 12-1 morning line. If she had been 5-1/11-2 like Steve suggested she would of went off 3/5. Money went elsewhere late because of info provided in the program(odds and works). 5/2 was HUGE for this horse.

I know that everyone else thinks he's crazy but to me, whether or not this happened, this is a very legitimate argument. Maybe a lot of the professional gamblers on here don't pay attention to the m/l odds when assessing a horse's chances but a lot of people going to the windows do. To say that what's listed in the program doesn't influence people at all is wrong, IMO. To what extent it does, I don't know. I remember when I first started playing, I would start off by looking at the m/l and I paid more attention to the horses that were the lowest odds since I assumed those were the ones given the best chances to win. Now, I don't look at the odds until after I've gone over each horse's pps. But I do think kgar is right here. If that horse had been listed at 7/2 or 4/1 on the m/l, she might have ended up at 1/2 odds. When you think of it that way, 5/2 was a great price to end up with on an "open secret" horse. I don't know that anyone was doing anything on purpose but just from reading the comments from all of the sharp players on here, even they know that the horse shouldn't have been 12/1 on the m/l. It's easy to say that Battaglia just blew it on that one and there's every chance that that's the case. I just think that this is not the kind of situation that's going to make people feel good about playing the races.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I just think that this is not the kind of situation that's going to make people feel good about playing the races.

Seriously, I'm not trying to be snarky, but this is the kind of thing that makes me feel GREAT about playing the races.

The morning-line is one of the few items in the program that actually has NO effect on the horse at all. The horse will run the same whether it's 5-1 or 20-1, she doesn't know the difference. So if someone is deliberately choosing to ignore the items that ACTUALLY have to do with the horse, and are instead relying on the morning-line to do their handicapping for them, then it creates great prices for everyone doing their homework. It's not like every angle here listed by people was not right there on paper. The slow works angle has been debunked several times, the 12 post is no hindrance, and it's not like the horse was listed as trained by Jamie Sanders (and really, thought experiment, QUICK what is Ken McPeek known for? If your first answer isn't 2-year olds in the fall, it's South American imports....and then 2-year olds in the fall) and someone missed a late change announcement. Absolutely all of the relevant information needed to peg this horse a contender was listed right there in black and white, and if someone is relying on a morning-line to make their assessment and blaming that when they lose, rather than the fact that they seemingly overlooked EVERY pertinent angle on the horse’s page, it’s an awfully tough call to ask for that to pull at the heartstrings.

Seeing as the ML in no way influences the horse or her talent, it would be similar to me capping the races, seeing tons of relevant angles on a horse called GONNAWINONFRIDAY and then tossing the horse because it’s a Thursday afternoon, before crying to everyone that it was a putover because the horse was obviously not meant to run well on Thursday….because you know, it was right there in the program.

Please.