Any horses/win bets in this year's BC

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Assuming he duplicates his last, Gayego looks like a near certainty in the Sprint.

Haven't seen the East coast contenders, but since they haven't tasted the Pro-Ride anyways, I think Lookin At Lucky will be tough to beat in the Juvenile at this point.

It will be interesting to see if Parading ends up in the Dirt Mile. Not sure why he's been so eager in his last two, but if he can settle a little further off the pace, it might give his jock a better shot of timing his move to a more appropriate point in the race. He's been bet down in his last 2, I'm sure he'll be a very round number if McGaughey enters him.

Agree about Looking at Lucky, he might be 6-5 or lower. DRF article said if Parading did not win his last, SHug was shipping him back East and no Breeders Cup.
How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Agree about Looking at Lucky, he might be 6-5 or lower. DRF article said if Parading did not win his last, SHug was shipping him back East and no Breeders Cup.
How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

He might have a change of heart as far as the Dirt Mile is concerned, but the Classic is probably out.

Seems like many people are viewing the Dirt Mile as a secondary race (eg Dick Mandella with Crown Of Thorns) to avoid the real heavy hitters. This only validates that ultimately the race probably takes away from both the Sprint and the Classic.

Beyond the "preview" races at Oak Tree and Belmont, the Breeder's Cup is even ruining their own original championship races.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Agree about Looking at Lucky, he might be 6-5 or lower. DRF article said if Parading did not win his last, SHug was shipping him back East and no Breeders Cup.
How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

There's almost always $$ to be made trying to beat speedballs like Zensational in the BC Sprint. I'll be staying the heck away from him. If he wins that race with his style, he'll have to be an absolute monster. Maybe he is?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There's almost always $$ to be made trying to beat speedballs like Zensational in the BC Sprint. I'll be staying the heck away from him. If he wins that race with his style, he'll have to be an absolute monster. Maybe he is?

I doubt he is. For a horse with such excellent early speed, he sure does have a tendency to not break alertly, but use his speed to rush up and get the lead shortly thereafter. He hasnt faced anybody with any good early speed, so the jury is still very much out. To me, this is a horse you have to bet against, or just watch and have a hot fudge sundae.

Hard to envision a wire to wire win if the field is as big and as loaded with early speed as it has been rumored.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Gander

I doubt he is. For a horse with such excellent early speed, he sure does have a tendency to not break alertly, but use his speed to rush up and get the lead shortly thereafter. He hasnt faced anybody with any good early speed, so the jury is still very much out. To me, this is a horse you have to bet against, or just watch and have a hot fudge sundae.

Hard to envision a wire to wire win if the field is as big and as loaded with early speed as it has been rumored.

I think he rolls and is 100% the goods...
And what the f on Sunday?

[NTamm1215]

Horses like Zensational who have a lot of hype and not a great deal of substance are the very type that you can make a great deal of money beating.

In the Pat O'Brien he faced a woefully bad field of five where the next best horse was Noble Court, whose biggest accomplishment in 2009 was a win in the Ack Ack, a race that featured one of the most remarkable pace collapses in the history of racing. Zensational was the only speed and got away with a first quarter in :23.

In the Bing Crosby he once again faced a pace-challenged field as Delta Storm was the only horse who could keep him even remotely honest. He ran hard to clear and stayed clear in a solid effort.

The race that impressed me from him more than any other was the Friday night optional claimer where he stalked and took over through maniacal fractions. That, however, can't look as good when you consider the caliber of horses he was holding off late.

He's going to face incredible early pressure from the word go even if the other speed is simply Fatal Bullet. I am very interested in betting against him if he's going to be asked to withstand early pressure and still stand up late.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Horses like Zensational who have a lot of hype and not a great deal of substance are the very type that you can make a great deal of money beating.

In the Pat O'Brien he faced a woefully bad field of five where the next best horse was Noble Court, whose biggest accomplishment in 2009 was a win in the Ack Ack, a race that featured one of the most remarkable pace collapses in the history of racing. Zensational was the only speed and got away with a first quarter in :23.

In the Bing Crosby he once again faced a pace-challenged field as Delta Storm was the only horse who could keep him even remotely honest. He ran hard to clear and stayed clear in a solid effort.

The race that impressed me from him more than any other was the Friday night optional claimer where he stalked and took over through maniacal fractions. That, however, can't look as good when you consider the caliber of horses he was holding off late.

He's going to face incredible early pressure from the word go even if the other speed is simply Fatal Bullet. I am very interested in betting against him if he's going to be asked to withstand early pressure and still stand up late.

NT

I really dont see a sceniro where he gets beat. We shall see.

[Kasept]

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

Ding ding ding. Huge play against for me.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time it took for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

I think this horse is better than HH. But it's hard to tell how good he really is because when I watch his races, I'm always left thinking that he didn't win 'cleanly' and that he'd have won much easier and by a wider margin with a cleaner trip. Even his last race, where he changed leads and stayed righty the entire stretch, he was drifting periodically on the backstretch and switching leads early. His footwork seems to be getting better, however. Though, Espinoza is definitely NOT the jock I'd want up on him. Doubtful this horse is able to stay straight on the backstretch in a large field which could compromise his chances.

I don't know who else is pointed for the Sprint but if there's some more pace in the race, and they decide to go with Z, rather than rate him just off it, I don't see why Noble Court wouldn't have as good a chance as any of the others. (Assuming he's going, of course.)

[Gander]

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Service is a bit better on this surface.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Gander

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Service is a bit better on this surface.

He's not running...

No repeat bid for Church Service

Church Service finished second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Marathon here, but will not start in that race this year, Mitchell said. Church Service is winless in five starts this year, including an eighth-place finish in the Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park last month.

"He needed a break," Mitchell said. "I would have loved to have run him in the Marathon, but he came back from Chicago kind of beat up and worn out."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/107837.html

NT

[Gander]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

He's not running...

No repeat bid for Church Service

Church Service finished second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Marathon here, but will not start in that race this year, Mitchell said. Church Service is winless in five starts this year, including an eighth-place finish in the Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park last month.

"He needed a break," Mitchell said. "I would have loved to have run him in the Marathon, but he came back from Chicago kind of beat up and worn out."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/107837.html

NT

Ugh, thanks for the update.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Gander

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Serviasce is a bit better on this surface.

People always talk about the Euros being overbet, they are 90% of the time just flat out better.... Look at last year, I belive an Americans best shot in the turf is Just as Well and best shot in the Classic is Zenyatta, and that is not saying much.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

People always talk about the Euros being overbet, they are 90% of the time just flat out better.... Look at last year, I belive an Americans best shot in the turf is Just as Well and best shot in the Classic is Zenyatta, and that is not saying much.

I wasnt talking about the turf or the Classic. Just the Marathon. And I dont think much of last year's winner coming back with another dream trip win like that.

[Gate Dancer]

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

I would be looking to beat Zensational even if he was pointing for the Damascus (3yo, 7f) on the undercard.