Are you ready for SA Showvivor?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

My tournament equity hits double figures: 3713/368 = $10.

Brain f**t. The equity is 5000/368 = $13.59

--Dunbar

PS--Sorry you're out, Pete!

[Dunbar]

Traveling all day today. Have to pick before seeing scratches.

Sam's Special in the 2nd. Go Mullins!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Traveling all day today. Have to pick before seeing scratches.

Sam's Special in the 2nd. Go Mullins!

Still in. 40 more dropped out yesterday, leaving 328.

Tough day today. I like Cardiff Giant in the 8th, but there were 2 scratches from the 2nd, leaving just 5 horses--meaning I only need to beat 2 of them to stay alive.

I can see the 2 most likely to finish out of the money, but it wasn't at all obvious to me which of the other 3 is the safest bet. Went with Langfuhrious. Will probably regret deserting Cardiff Giant.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Tough day today. I like Cardiff Giant in the 8th, but there were 2 scratches from the 2nd, leaving just 5 horses--meaning I only need to beat 2 of them to stay alive.

I can see the 2 most likely to finish out of the money, but it wasn't at all obvious to me which of the other 3 is the safest bet. Went with Langfuhrious. Will probably regret deserting Cardiff Giant.

--Dunbar

I also originally had Cardiff Giant, but with him coming off short rest, I decided to switch to the 5-horse 2nd race with the 2 weak 12-1 shots. I selected Fog Alert out of the 3 who had the best chance to finish in the money, although the blinkers on, the layoff, and the slower works do concern me. I don't see much pace in this 2nd race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

I also originally had Cardiff Giant, but with him coming off short rest, I decided to switch to the 5-horse 2nd race with the 2 weak 12-1 shots. I selected Fog Alert out of the 3 who had the best chance to finish in the money, although the blinkers on, the layoff, and the slower works do concern me. I don't see much pace in this 2nd race.

We got another scratch in that race, leaving just 4 horses. There was no show betting, but our picks still counted.

We would have been okay with Cardiff Giant in the 8th, too--finished 1st.

39 people dropped out yesterday, leaving 289 of the original 3713. Equity per player has climbed to $17.

Today I'm leaning toward Raiding Party in the 3rd. But I have to leave for another road trip before I'll get to see the scratches.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

We Today I'm leaning toward Raiding Party in the 3rd. But I have to leave for another road trip before I'll get to see the scratches

Nice call - Raiding Party finished second.

I took Silent Stalk who held on for 3rd by a head. It may be a while before I select another Showvivor horse from a race going down the hill. My other option for today would have been the Baffert horse that held on for 3rd by less than a length in the fourth race. Probably another day where alot of players will move on.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Nice call - Raiding Party finished second.

I'd forgotten that Raiding Party was also my horse one week earlier!

Originally Posted by mbahadur

I took Silent Stalk who held on for 3rd by a head. It may be a while before I select another Showvivor horse from a race going down the hill. My other option for today would have been the Baffert horse that held on for 3rd by less than a length in the fourth race. Probably another day where alot of players will move on.

Right. Only 18 dropped by the wayside yesterday. The previous lowest number of dropouts was 39. There are 271 of us left.

If I'd started with a $100 bet and reinvested my winnings, after 11 days my bank would have grown to $366, plus $3 in roundoff change. (+$269)

I looked hard at today's 2nd race after a scratch reduced it to 5. But I couldn't settle on one runner that was that much better than any of the other 4. Tempted by Via Verde in the 4th, but 1st time on grass. Leaning toward Niger River in the 3rd.

--Dunbar