Summer Bird could be HOY

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As I said earlier, I wouldn't say he struggled because he was tailing off. In each race, the others obviously knew he was the horse to beat and rode to try to beat him. The pace was very, very slow in the Foster and JCGC and he still overcame it. In the Woodward, it was insanely fast.

You should know margin of victory doesn't always indicate how superior a horse is. Of course, those who think RA can't get 10f based on the results of the Preakness and Woodward are making the same mistake.

Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Seriously you believe this? There was some kind of pace conspiracy??? I just thought they rode their slow horses the same way they always did. Honestly as bad as this years older horses were in the Woodward and Gold Cup, last years may very well have been worse. So if they go too slow he has an excuse and when they go fast he has an excuse? I guess we will agree to disagree that his uninspiring performances last fall were questionably inspiring.

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you thought that you should probably stick to training.

Honestly, you think a horse that closes off a slow pace and still wins is going to earn the same figures he did when the pace is very fast?

If you and I had a 100 meter race, an we walked 90 meters and I gave you a 5 meter head start, I would probably only beat you by a meter. It doesn't mean I've gotten slower.

I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine.

Wanderin Boy ran a 109 Beyer without any real smoke and mirrors in his start prior to his two meetings with Curlin.

Past The Point ran a 106 in his start prior without any real smoke and mirrors.


Those may not be horses with big resumes - but assuming they run back to those type of sharp races ... it takes an extremely good horse to make wide sweeping turn moves and blow them away with ease.

Compared to a WILDLY overrated horse like Street Sense - and very over rated horses like Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun ... I'd consider Curlin to be only just plain overrated.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I never said anything about figures. Just watch the races again. He struggles to catch and put away very weak competition, which is something that he hadnt had trouble with before. In both the Woodward and Gold Cup he cant dispose of Wandering Boy till deep in the lane. In the Woodward they ran the last 1/8th in 14.
If you want to believe that struggling to beat Past the Point and Wandering Boy was because of some sort of pace scenario, that is fine. But when you say he struggled to run past them because the pace was in one case too slow and in one case too fast makes me wonder how it works both ways.

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

I wouldn't agree that the obvious hot pace in last year's Woodward really hurt Curlin's chances or led to him running a sub-par race. It only made him finish very slow .. though still faster than how all the others finished.

The 112 Beyer he got in that race was actually outright the 3rd best of his entire career.

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

In one extreme example, you're talking about a 3yo going 10fs in May while hung very wide on both turns chasing a scorching fast pace in a huge field very deep in talent.

In the Curlin Woodward example, you're talking about an older horse going 9fs chasing a very strong pace in a smaller field pretty much void of any other real Grade 1 talent.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

He didn't exactly train him the way Baffert would - that much is for sure.

Christ, he was only a length in front of AP Arrow after a half mile in that race. The whole field was going too fast. It's not like a case in this year's Woodward where you had one rider smart enough to position his horse WAY behind everyone else.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

The Breeder's Cup just proved he was over the top since his Dubai race. He was extended to beat Past the Point and extended to beat Wanderin Boy. Thats the view from this betting "fan".

The horse threw a 22 second 4th quarter in the Breeder's Cup and hit the wall at the 1/8 pole. all earmarks of a horse that has seen his best days behind him.

He was a real good horse, not an all time great.