10/3 (BEL): JCGC, Hirsch, Beldame, Flower Bowl, Vosburgh (G1's)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'd have a very, very hard time betting Kodiak Kowboy tomorrow. When a horse like him who makes one big run has been failing with terrific setups then it's not a good idea at all to take him going a trip that has never been his best. This race would be vastly different if it was 7 furlongs but, alas, it is not and thus he's going to have to be in high gear very early.


NT

I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:

1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.

2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace

3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup

4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement

5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.


So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:

1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.

2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace

3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup

4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement

5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.


So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.

So the Carter wasn't a perfect setup because FS hung around? At that point in time Driven by Success was one of the better sprinters on the east coast and the fact that he and Fab Strike hung around is not that surprising. KK needed every bit of that final furlong to get up when he was able to lay back and make his one run in a race where FS BURIED all of the other speed.

I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks.

You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup.

Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by.

The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get.

Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So the Carter wasn't a perfect setup because FS hung around? At that point in time Driven by Success was one of the better sprinters on the east coast and the fact that he and Fab Strike hung around is not that surprising. KK needed every bit of that final furlong to get up when he was able to lay back and make his one run in a race where FS BURIED all of the other speed.

I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks.

You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup.

Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by.

The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get.

Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap.

NT

When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.

running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:

1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace

2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat

3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed

4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race


5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE


I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).

What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.

P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.

running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:

1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace

2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat

3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed

4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race


5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE


I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).

What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.

P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.

I agree that early/late positioning is important, but it's too reliant on how good the speed/closers are to be used solely in determining pace setup. Just because Kodiak Kowboy was the only one who closed in the Carter, that doesn't mean that the race didn't set up for him. The blistering pace and slow come home time tell us otherwise. No other decent closers lifted a hoof. Tale of Ekati has been slow/injured this year, Ah Day isn't a Grade 1 horse, etc. This doesn't make KK's race any better. He didn't make a "huge run", he came lumbering along to barely nail an understandably tired Fabulous Strike at a distance unfavorable to FS. Like I said, even with the Assman's magic, I'd be stunned if this horse beat FS at six furlongs today.

Totally ignoring relative fractions and relying solely on early/late positioning is a pretty hardheaded strategy.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Totally ignoring relative fractions and relying solely on early/late positioning is a pretty hardheaded strategy.

I've repeatedly tried to make my case here, to no avail. You guys just don't get it. What has happened in my use of these charts is that I've MODELED races --- specifically race types. These models are every bit as good as speed or pace figures (which are also models). It's just a different way of looking at races.

When some of you set aside your figure centric methods, you might just get what I'm doing. Till then, it makes no sense for me to discuss races (setups) here.

Shut the f.uck up.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I've repeatedly tried to make my case here, to no avail. You guys just don't get it. What has happened in my use of these charts is that I've MODELED races --- specifically race types. These models are every bit as good as speed or pace figures (which are also models). It's just a different way of looking at races.

When some of you set aside your figure centric methods, you might just get what I'm doing. Till then, it makes no sense for me to discuss races (setups) here.

So it makes no sense for you to discuss setups or races here because you were right about one race?

I hope you make a fortune at the races, dude, cause you talk a f.ucking huge game.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So it makes no sense for you to discuss setups or races here because you were right about one race?

I hope you make a fortune at the races, dude, cause you talk a f.ucking huge game.

NT

You know what, Nick? I was also right about Rail Trip and a bunch of others with you, including Straight Story. Remember him? He's the one that was one of the best 3 year old turf horses per Serling (who also thought that KK had no shot today). And you couldn't get it that Battle of Hastings was just better -- cause you're just a better tripper. How many times do I need to stick it in your ass before you get it, Doofus? You're like the CSC idiot. Your tripping skills leave a lot to be desired. How's that? I'm done trying to educate you.

In the meantime, keep at the status quo.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.

running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:

1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace

2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat

3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed

4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race


5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE


I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).

What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.

P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.

What Ateam said is basically what I'm getting at.

As far as Better Talk Now, I've always been a fan of how he's been able to stay relevant for many, many years. I know he needed a good setup to win but that doesn't mean that what he did is not admirable.

As far as Kodiak Kowboy running a "good" race in the Carter in your opinion, we'll agree to disagree, I thought the thing fell into his lap and he was the only horse to make a meaningful off the pace move.

NT