10/3 (BEL): JCGC, Hirsch, Beldame, Flower Bowl, Vosburgh (G1's)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont think Fabulous Strike has to win tomorrow. I have a strong feeling they are going to go really nuts up front and Kodiak Kowboy is going to steal the show. Never been a huge fan of his but I think tomorrow is the time to bet him. People will be disuaded by his reputation for "not liking 6F" which is completely untrue and you may see the best price on him in a long time. Thinking the betting centers strongly around Fabulous Strike and Munnings, and maybe the Kowboy is let go at 4/1. You guys notice Asmussen has him back in his barn?

That last race sealed the deal for me with Kodiak Kowboy. He just can't get it done unless he has the race served up for him. Even when he beat Fabulous Strike in the Carter, FS ran such a better race, it was a travesty he had to lose. It's a good field, so I don't advocate taking 3/5 on FS, but he's showed more rating capability this year than in the past and who exactly is the speedball in here? FS didn't have much issue with the pace Go Go Shoot set last time.

If FS loses it'll be to Munnings, but I don't see it happening at six furlongs.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That last race sealed the deal for me with Kodiak Kowboy. He just can't get it done unless he has the race served up for him. Even when he beat Fabulous Strike in the Carter, FS ran such a better race, it was a travesty he had to lose. It's a good field, so I don't advocate taking 3/5 on FS, but he's showed more rating capability this year than in the past and who exactly is the speedball in here? FS didn't have much issue with the pace Go Go Shoot set last time.

If FS loses it'll be to Munnings, but I don't see it happening at six furlongs.

The Assman may make the difference.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The Assman may make the difference.

His powers are great, but I don't think he can make a confirmed seven-furlong nibbler beat the best six-furlong horse in the land.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

His powers are great, but I don't think he can make a confirmed seven-furlong nibbler beat the best six-furlong horse in the land.

I dare not doubt him. And slop will be the topping.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I dare not doubt him. And slop will be the topping.

Mmmm mmmm good. Now if only Asiatic Boy can win for me.

[Travis Stone]

It's been a rough year for weather on big race days... Kentucky Derby was sloppy, Louisiana Derby, Haskell, Travers, JCGC... odd.

[jms62]

I'm not a betting man mind you but I think my money goes on the Fat_Man if they enter the Octogon.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That last race sealed the deal for me with Kodiak Kowboy. He just can't get it done unless he has the race served up for him. Even when he beat Fabulous Strike in the Carter, FS ran such a better race, it was a travesty he had to lose. It's a good field, so I don't advocate taking 3/5 on FS, but he's showed more rating capability this year than in the past and who exactly is the speedball in here? FS didn't have much issue with the pace Go Go Shoot set last time.
If FS loses it'll be to Munnings, but I don't see it happening at six furlongs.

He barely got up and beat him by 1 length. I thought Go Go Shoot had him at the 1/16th pole. I agree with you on the Carter. Fab Strike will be shorter than 3/5 imo, unless the Munnings fans really go nuts.

Nice race, even with the short field.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by Gander

He barely got up and beat him by 1 length. I thought Go Go Shoot had him at the 1/16th pole. I agree with you on the Carter. Fab Strike will be shorter than 3/5 imo, unless the Munnings fans really go nuts.

Nice race, even with the short field.

I am leaning towards Go Go Shoot as a possible single for a price.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I am leaning towards Go Go Shoot as a possible single for a price.

I dont like him at all. In fact he would be my first and possibly only throwout of this bunch. The time to bet him was last time.

Thats the reason I like Kowboy. You think Ramon is going to just let Go Go Shoot get loose again? He (on Fab Strike) had to work very hard to get up in his last race and I doubt the pace scenario will roll that way again.

I sense a strong pace duel developing and the Kowboy coming on late.

The best myth in horse racing is that Kodiak Kowboy doesnt run well going 6F

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Gander

He barely got up and beat him by 1 length. I thought Go Go Shoot had him at the 1/16th pole. I agree with you on the Carter. Fab Strike will be shorter than 3/5 imo, unless the Munnings fans really go nuts.

Nice race, even with the short field.

And where was Kodiak Kowboy?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

And where was Kodiak Kowboy?

I thought he had a pretty rough trip that day but I'll go back and watch it again.

[NTamm1215]

I'd have a very, very hard time betting Kodiak Kowboy tomorrow. When a horse like him who makes one big run has been failing with terrific setups then it's not a good idea at all to take him going a trip that has never been his best. This race would be vastly different if it was 7 furlongs but, alas, it is not and thus he's going to have to be in high gear very early.

Go Go Shoot ran his eyeballs out last time but he was awfully dull when fresh earlier this year and while he's working well, he may need a race and be really tuned up for a race like the Sport Page later this month.

I think this is Fabulous Strike's race to lose, obviously, but I'm going to use Peace Chant a bit as well. He likely needed a race going into the Forego and he was given what I considered to be an overly aggressive ride from a generally patient rider. He is a one-run closer but was too close to a hot pace and had no place to go through the last two and a half furlongs. If the rains come I think his chances may get marginally better as his dam, Safely Kept was 2 for 3 on wet tracks in her day and her offspring are a combined 4-10 on wet tracks.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'd have a very, very hard time betting Kodiak Kowboy tomorrow. When a horse like him who makes one big run has been failing with terrific setups then it's not a good idea at all to take him going a trip that has never been his best. This race would be vastly different if it was 7 furlongs but, alas, it is not and thus he's going to have to be in high gear very early.


NT

I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:

1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.

2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace

3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup

4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement

5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.


So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:

1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.

2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace

3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup

4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement

5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.


So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.

So the Carter wasn't a perfect setup because FS hung around? At that point in time Driven by Success was one of the better sprinters on the east coast and the fact that he and Fab Strike hung around is not that surprising. KK needed every bit of that final furlong to get up when he was able to lay back and make his one run in a race where FS BURIED all of the other speed.

I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks.

You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup.

Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by.

The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get.

Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap.

NT

[Sightseek]

You don't see a finish like the one in the 4th everyday. Bad luck for the 4.

[GPK]

Wow...serious crow eating time. I was wrong. Congrats to the Mr. Mavorah and Bobby Barbara.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by GPK

Wow...serious crow eating time. I was wrong. Congrats to the Mr. Mavorah and Bobby Barbara.

I am waiting for my serving. Watched in disbelief for a lot of reasons. Congrats and well deserved.

Andy, Freddy...what can I say..